Comments on: Notes From Underground: Has The FAT LADY BEGUN TO SING OR WAS THIS THE QUEEN’S ARIA?

By: Notes From Underground: May Day! May Day! May Day! | Notes From Underground

Notes From Underground: May Day! May Day! May Day! | Notes From Underground — Wed, 01 May 2013 03:03:53 +0000

[...] July 2, I wrote a blog post after a key summit in Brussels in which German Chancellor Merkel was bested by Italy’s Monti [...]

By: yra harris

yra harris — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 22:56:13 +0000

Arthur–thanks

By: Arthur

Arthur — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 21:34:22 +0000

Thanks. Let me add something else about Germany. Eastern Germany still lags behind West. Income per head is still only 70% of that in the West. Few German business and political leadership positions are held by people from the former East Germany. Unemployment in eastern Germany stands at 12 percent (Leipzig and Dresden around 14%), nearly twice as high the 6.9 percent in the west. None of the 14 cabinet ministers appointed by Merkel come from the former East Germany, and none of the 30 top German companies in the DAX market index is led by someone from eastern Germany.

By: yra

yra — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 11:54:54 +0000

Danny–very good point and certainly something to consider.There are voices in Germany pushing the alternative argument and that Germany is such a well oiled export machine that it is not worried about Europe as its main markets–this will get very volatile in the year ahead.

By: yra

yra — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 11:52:24 +0000

Arthur–thanks for the Bremmer link.To say never is always dangerous.The Germans have several cards to play and in time we will see –but the Gaullist model seems to be in serious trouble.The history of modern Europe has been the balancing of power to contain Germany by France allying with Russia or the U.K.–this will not be the way forward and so again let us watch Putin and the games he will play.As for Mexico–yes well tied to the U.S. but the PESO is at 13.4 versus the DOLLAR well down in value so don’t let the risk on/risk off be the only determinant.

By: arthur

arthur — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 17:43:23 +0000

Hi Yra, paying close attention to Mexico, very interesting story. I have one doubt: the fate of Mexico’s economy is linked tightly with the health of its giant neighbor, the US. So remains vulnerable to a slowdown in the US…

“Germany will never leave the eurozone,” said acclaimed geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer (FT) http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/10/18/germany-will-never-leave-the-eurozone/?Authorised=false#axzz1zVm35n00

thanks!

By: Danny

Danny — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 13:16:26 +0000

Yra,

What role would you say increasing unemployment in Germany may shift public sentiment towards Merkel & Co with respect to the level of support for crafting a solution to the EU problems? While Germany has substantially less unemployment currently, if the German economy started to come under pressure with rising unemployment…I just wonder if Merkel will find herself a good deal more support and a hightened sense of urgency to arrive at an optimal solution sooner rather than later.

Danny