Comments on: Notes From Underground: Draghi … Could’ve, Should’ve, Would’ve

By: yra harris

yra harris — Sun, 12 Aug 2012 21:29:34 +0000

Mario–I think the Brazilian situation is very important to watch as it reflects how the developing economies are going to try to deal with any slowdown in the DEVELOPED WORLD.More important then the two events you cite we will need to watch the agricultural sectors of Brazil to see if the high global grain prices bring a huge increase in planting intentions–especially with a “weak” REAL.As Brazilian interest rates head lower it will be important to see if Brazilian corporates increase capital investment.It appears that Dimla has a bit of the import substitution ideas in her head—back to the days of Raul Prebisch

By: yra harris

yra harris — Sun, 12 Aug 2012 21:24:44 +0000

danny–based on everything we read i think you are right.But as a long time readwer of NOTES you know I am always skeptical of Chinese data.China because of its huge capital investment will be a drag on the global scene for years to come.Part of the lack of inflation in the Bernanke story is the huge output gap that exists in China and the recent export figures seem to confirm that

By: yra harris

yra harris — Fri, 10 Aug 2012 02:40:24 +0000

hey raymack—always appreeciate the musical input;i always think about inputing a reference to Putney Swope—-how many syllable’s Mario

By: Mario

Mario — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 17:38:26 +0000

BRICS, Brazil has not found traction as they lose on their commodity driven enviroment. The countless monetary policies the government has swept underneath Brazil’s feet has pulled back on investments as plenty of hot money has left that refinery. The economy was a running riot not but a year and a half ago, now it is struggling with sustaing fiscal stability. I remember speaking to a woman that told me when I was visiting LA I believe, “that it was more cheap to buy a coach purse in the US than in Rio” and it was half price in the US. Their credit bubble has run rampant and industrials which makes up one-third GDP is and has been drifting down the rabbit hole. Do we actually see a rebound as they have two of the biggest global stimlui in the upcoming future with the olympics and World cup? Is this still the beginning of monetary policies to come?

By: Danny

Danny — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 16:58:54 +0000

Inflation has slowed to 1.8% in China. Is this a bullish or bearish data point? It looks like the majority of people have a bullish interpretation in that the Chinese Central Bank can expand some stimulus to the overall economy. But for some reason I can’t stop scratching my head that weaker inflation in a place such as China is indicative of further slowing which should be interpreted as a bearish data point.

What do you think?

Danny

By: raymack1999

raymack1999 — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 12:43:35 +0000

“It’s Kind of a Draghi” by the Buckinghams

By: yra harris

yra harris — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 12:34:02 +0000

Kevin–no argument there.But as a professor you know you can’t make those who don’t wish to or already know everything—learn.Remember that the whole basis of the DRAGHI COUP is that markets have mispriced sovereign debt–SCHAUEBLE laid the groundwork for draghi to proceed,for correcting mispriced debt is now the ECB mandate.

By: kevinwaspi

kevinwaspi — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 04:19:42 +0000

Sounds like Mario Draghi should have conversation with his cohorts on the Trust/Custodial Plan I outlined for them back in early July.
Kevin