Comments on: Notes From Underground: IF … In a World Of Great Uncertainty

By: Arthur

Arthur — Fri, 17 Aug 2012 12:48:24 +0000

Thanks! Nice article, “there are only two opposing strategies to overcome the crisis: Either Europe’s core countries, led by France and Germany, pull themselves together and form a true federation, or there will no longer be a euro in a few years.”

The Economist says: “François Hollande has, on paper, more power than any other president in the Fifth Republic’s history. His Socialist Party now controls both houses of the legislature, all but one French region and most of the country’s departments, big towns and communes. The question is: what will this studiously modest man do with such dominance?”

Let us see what takes place over the next 18 months…

By: yra harris

yra harris — Fri, 17 Aug 2012 09:50:32 +0000

Arthur:Just read a Der Spiegel Online article–”Attraction and Repulsion Define French-German Relations” by Romain Leick.All the readers of NOTES should read it.

By: yra harris

yra harris — Thu, 16 Aug 2012 23:48:28 +0000

Arthur–as I would expect Marvin Zonis to say–let us see what takes place over the next 18 months and the french view towards a DeGaulle shaped Europe—the public sector being over 50% of GDP with 10+% unemployment—not something I would place too much confidence in—-how many French auto imports on the streets of America or any othe rcountry

By: arthur

arthur — Thu, 16 Aug 2012 22:20:38 +0000

France may be the land of ‘tax and spend’ but they have lots to show for it and look better than the US in many ways, according expert Marvin Zonis, Professor Emeritus Booth School of Business
University of Chicago

http://www.marvinzonis.com/publications/webpub

By: yra harris

yra harris — Thu, 16 Aug 2012 20:01:05 +0000

Dustin L.: Thanks for the kind words and I agree with you that something is up in Japan–not sure what but the nikkei is trying to tell us something is up and we will look at this going.As last night’s piece tried to show there is a breakdown in some of the risk on/risk off correlations.Yes we must be on alert for a sea change.

By: Dustin L.

Dustin L. — Thu, 16 Aug 2012 16:18:26 +0000

Great piece as always Yra, thanks for sharing your insights with us! The significant sell-off’s in the 10Y bond markets in Japan, Germany, and the U.S. appear to carry a clear message with it from my perspective, money is flowing back to Europe and “risk”. This is further supported by rising equity markets and what appears to be a major low being made in the Euro. Could this be the start of a change in focus for world markets? Is the focus starting to turn towards Japan? Not that we are out of the EU crisis, as we all know we are not, but, markets lead the underlying economy anyway. As shorts continue to cover we may just be witnessing a major change in perceptions of risk and the flow of money accordingly. I would add that I think the sell-off in the long bonds mentioned above are a little overextended and could likely rally, but, time will tell if this is an important change of trend or not. I am certainly on high alert.

By: kevinwaspi

kevinwaspi — Wed, 15 Aug 2012 21:41:36 +0000

“Eurozone policymakers are hell bent on a mindless austerity which will make Japan’s recent stagnation look wonderfully benign.”
Classic, an excellent piece. Thank you for pointing it out.
Kevin