Comments on: Notes From Underground: The Yen Will Not Be the Sacrificial Lamb

By: yra

yra — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 17:16:58 +0000

Mario–you ask the ultimate question which we will follow and your analogy of the tortoise and the hare seems about right.Now if Mexico could begin to respect the rule of law and begin to rein in corruption it could be the decades big story

By: Mario

Mario — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 14:56:18 +0000

The tortoise is winning the race when you look at Mexico, Indonesia,and Canada these days. The rabbit was winning the race via China, Australia, Brazil, US, India……Next quarter will bring out the steam in these sails more with food prices but luckily for the glich oil is down a tad. Most of the tortoise countries have currencies which has devalued with less synthetic policies, as the whole worlds currencies are worth much less with monetary stimulus and policies……Where to watch coming into OCtober and next year?

By: Dustin L.

Dustin L. — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 13:36:03 +0000

Yra- Well said sir. The US monetary authorities would hardly have scope for being too upset given the levels of the Yen, which is not to say that they wouldn’t be. But, the elevated Yen might provide some room for the MOF to work within. And, Japan can hardly afford a rising Yen and a slowing economy in the face of tensions with China. I have a hard time seeing China and Japan going to war with such a large economic mutual interest but, the history and bad blood between the two runs deep, and we humans really are more driven by passion than by reason. I will heed your advice and let my numbers guide me.

By: yra

yra — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 12:59:51 +0000

dustin–thanks .As tor the MOF–it is a riddle mystery enigma to me .But as Churchill used these words to define Russia it certainly applies to how the MOF behaves and thinks.As Churchill opined;the key to finding out is figuring out their self-interest which the Japanese politicians seem unable to do.Some think that the Japanese do not want to piss off the U.S. monetary authorities by putting undue downward pressure onthe YEN–especially as tensions with China are on the rise.As you say –watch the charts–the 200 day m.a. on Dollar/yen is 79.32 or so—let your numbers be your guide

By: Dustin L.

Dustin L. — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 12:39:37 +0000

Yra- Will the MOF get busy selling to help change the perception of a rally in the Yen after the BOJ’s easing? I suspect they might do this as early as today. It would take less artillery now rather than later when the longs become more committed and confident. As always, the charts will clue us in.

Great piece BTW!

By: yra harris

yra harris — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 09:51:30 +0000

Michael–no question about that but the flow of international money is search of higher returns built on “cheap labor” has dwarfed even the lure of drugs—building a middle class allows for the far greater distribution of wealth then the DRUG CARTEL–remember the U.S. had robber barons and the wild west was exactly that.

By: Norbert Beckstrom

Norbert Beckstrom — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 02:08:25 +0000

This was an excellent “Notes.” Particularly the work on Mexico.

Norbo

By: Michael Greenberg

Michael Greenberg — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 02:01:26 +0000

One thing about Mexico to keep in mind is the rampart crime, particularly the kidnappings that are focused on wealthy families. These wealthy and productive families are buying second homes in the U.S. and, more importantly, are sending their money here. And this cross border flood of money is having an influence on the exchange rate. Just keep it in mind.