Posts Tagged ‘Debt’

Notes From Underground: The Basel Accord Gets Watered Down. What Are The Potential Impacts?

January 8, 2013

In the most significant news over the weekend, the Basel Committee announced that it was backing off from the implementation of the 2015 enhanced capital requirements for banks. Under the original Basel III requirements, global banks were going to have to have enough LIQUID ASSETS to be able to sustain a possible financial crisis of 30 days. The ability to sell assets to meet a possible run meant that banks would be forced to hold a larger amount of high quality, easily sellable assets. European banks have been clamoring for relief from the new capital rules for fear that the new standards would create less bank lending as banks rushed to shore up their balance sheets. U.S. banks were supporting the lobbying efforts by the European banks and thus the Basel Committee showed forbearance and lessened the possible impact by extending full compliance with the new regs out until 2019.

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Notes From Underground: Policy Should Set Stock Prices. Imagine That

December 27, 2012

The ideas CNBC is spreading about the FISCAL CLIFF is just absurd. The addiction to higher stock prices has meant that a failure to get the equity market to rally due to falling off the “CLIFF” prevents quality policy from being attained. Going over the “CLIFF” will at least put spending front and center for we are all sure that taxes are going higher so the discussion must get to a genuine discussion about spending, and yes, that means serious cuts in the bloated defense sector. The FED‘s policy means that monetary policy will support the economy into the medium term and alleviate some of the pain from government spending cuts. It’s not drastic austerity but a realistic plan for dealing with rampant profligacy.

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Notes From Underground: Question of the Day–Which 2-Year Note Yields More, Germany or Japan?

April 10, 2012

The world spins and investors get dizzy. Today the German 2-year note is yielding less than the Japanese two-year! Think about that for a moment as an indicator of the insanity that has enveloped the world. The Germans may well be the best credit in Europe but at this moment the German people are on the hook for a great deal of European DEBT so the SCHATZ is trading at a level that is devoid of reality. The reason for the SCHATZ BID may be a result of the need for high quality collateral to secure REPO borrowing or it may be a signal that citizens of the DEBT-STRESSED PERIPHERIES have grown tired of their domestic banks and are parking huge amounts of money in GERMAN SOVEREIGNS … another example of GRESHAM’s LAW.

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Notes From Underground: Bernanke, Housing Fails to Provide Economic Foundation

January 11, 2012

In a BLOOMBERG article published today, “Bernanke Doubling Down on Housing Bet Asks Government to Help,” it appears that the Obama administration and the FED are in sync that something needs to be done to lift the moribund residential real estate market. This is certainly not a new development but it shows how the FED is at a loss to explain how the ultra-low interest rate policy for the last three years has FAILED to stem the decline in housing prices and ultimately foreclosures. The FED and others don’t want to admit that this IS A BALANCE SHEET RECESSION.

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Notes From Underground: Unemployment, No Surprises

January 8, 2012

The unemployment data released on Friday revealed no great surprises as the nonfarm payrolls were right in line with consensus. The markets also offered up no real divergences from the norm as the S&Ps rallied but by day’s end the U.S. equities closed basically unchanged (although the NASDAQ continued to outperform all other indices.) The EURO currency dropped further and wound up losing 1.7% for the week even while the S&Ps gained 1.7%.

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Notes From Underground: Spanish Election Provides No Surprise

November 20, 2011

As the polls expected, the Spanish election offered no surprises as the Center Right Popular Party appears to have attained an outright majority and the socialist party has been trounced. The markets appear to want to believe that this outcome is EURO POSITIVE AND SPANISH AND ITALIAN DEBT POSITIVE BUT I WARN THAT IT AIN’T NECESSARILY SO. Did the PP win a historic election so that they can deliver MORE AUSTERITY TO THE SPANISH PEOPLE? HOW MUCH ECONOMIC CONCESSIONS ARE THE SPANISH PEOPLE WILLING TO MAKE? IF THE ANSWER IS VERY LITTLE, THEN WHAT NEXT FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION?

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Notes From Underground: SPANISH MISSTEPS TRIP UP ITALIAN DEBT

November 15, 2011

TO OUR READERS: WE’RE REISSUING LAST NIGHT’S PIECE AS MANY OF YOU DID NOT RECEIVE THE POST BECAUSE OF A WORDPRESS GLITCH. ENJOY!

The DEBT markets in Europe renewed the sombre tone of a collapse of Italy and Spain. In the early part of the European trading day, the Italian BTP was holding on to last week’s gains and outperforming the BUNDS to the upside. As the day wound to a close, the “negative” news out of the Merkel’s CDU conference pressured the DEBT markets as new fears arose that the German Chancellor had her party’s support for the jettisoning of some of the weaker peripherals.

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Notes From Underground: SPANISH MISSTEPS TRIP UP ITALIAN DEBT

November 14, 2011

The DEBT markets in Europe renewed the sombre tone of a collapse of Italy and Spain. In the early part of the European trading day, the Italian BTP was holding on to last week’s gains and outperforming the BUNDS to the upside. As the day wound to a close, the “negative” news out of the Merkel’s CDU conference pressured the DEBT markets as new fears arose that the German Chancellor had her party’s support for the jettisoning of some of the weaker peripherals.

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Notes From Underground: And The Winner of This Year’s GREENSPAN MORAL HAZARD Award Is … JON CORZINE

November 1, 2011

Another day another crisis in EUROLAND, or the LA LA LAND of Wall Street, which we will know refer to as THE LAND OF MORAL HAZARD. The leaders of the Wall Street establishment have proven again that no risky investment is too big as long it is with OPM (other people’s money). Jon Corzine went all in on a bet on PIIG DEBT in an effort to increase the annual returns at MF GLOBAL. In a ZIRP environment, a clearing house has a difficult time making money because the earnings, which are the overnight float, are so extremely low. In order to generate greater earnings on the FLOAT, greater risks need to be taken so the need to purchase riskier sovereign debt becomes the outlet.

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Notes From Underground: Sarkozy and Merkel … Is That All There Is??? (Peggy Lee)

August 16, 2011

The markets were all waiting for a major statement regarding the European political situation and its effect on the financial system. It wound up being the most banal as it makes me wonder what leaders of the two dominant nations in the EU held back from the media and markets. The main point was the announcement about a financial transaction tax, but to say there were no specifics about the tax given would be hyperbole. The markets were expecting some statement about an increase of funds for the EFSF, but again, nothing. The EURO was initially sold but by day’s end the damage to the currency was less than minimal.

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