Friday’s unemployment report was as bad as forecast and probably worse. Yes, the unemployment rate was not as high as suspected but once the data was analyzed it appears the actual number was close to 20%. The most problematic data point going forward is the AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (AHE). The jobs report revealed a historic 4.7% monthly increase but this was for the worst reason.
Posts Tagged ‘German Constitutional Court’
Notes From Underground: Courting Disaster
May 10, 2020Notes From Underground: The Market Looks to Germany and Japan
February 9, 2014Yes, the U.S. unemployment data grabbed the headlines on Friday as the non farm payroll headline number was lower than consensus again. More importantly, the revision to the very weak December payrolls of 74,000 jobs was only revised upwards by 1,000. Average hourly earnings and hours worked were also weak and after the initial drop in the stock indices, equity markets spent the entire day rallying. It seems weak data powers the equity markets’ understanding of the Fed’s forward guidance. Tapering is not tightening and the Fed will keep rates low for a very long time and let the 6.5% unemployment threshold be a mere “candle in the wind.” The Canadian data was better than expected but did substantiate Thursday’s strength in the IVEY PMI. The strong global equity markets were also supported by diminished fears from the emerging markets as investors have lost the sense of urgency to flee all EMs.
Notes From Underground: Judgement Day is Tomorrow as Supplicants Approach the Bench
June 10, 2013The German Constitutional Court is scheduled to hear the arguments in the issue of the constitutionality of the ECB providing unconditional funding for the bailouts of European sovereigns plagued with financial problems. The main issue really becomes this: Can the ECB consign German citizens to be the paymasters for the entire European project without their DIRECT CONSENT–or what the highly regarded Otmar Issing rightly called “taxation without representation” in an FT op-ed piece several months ago? Germany’s Constitutional Court sits in Karlsruhe and decides major issues of law impinging on the legality of the BASIC LAW. Previously, the court has held that the sovereignty of the people resides in the Bundestag but has warned that the transfer of German wealth and property to an outside foreign body has its limits without direct consent of the people. Where does the demands of the European Union conflict with the sovereignty of the citizens in determination of German rights?
Notes From Underground: The GCC WILL ANNOUNCE AT 4:00 a.m. EST … Until Then, “ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT”
September 11, 2012The equity market recouped some of yesterday’s loss as the entire trading day was position squaring ahead of the German Constitutional Court rendering its decision on the constitutionality of the ESM and the role of ECB moves to buy the primary issuance of European sovereign debt. There are many pundits trying to place probabilities on the court’s decision but I am not briefed enough in the BASIC LAW of Germany to even try to make that bold a prediction. To my mind, I will concentrate on the language the court uses and what position it takes in directing the German government to have to consent to the WILL OF THE PEOPLE. Will it direct the Merkel administration to return the issue to the Bundestag for approval of the new enhanced ECB “bailout” or will it suggest that the entire Maastricht Treaty needs to be approved by the entire citizenry through a REFERENDUM?
Notes From Underground: SCHAUBLE Says Spain On The Road To Salvation (IS 25% UNEMPLOYMENT REPENTANCE?)
July 9, 2012First, the U.S. unemployment report was soft although if the ADP stats had not caused the WALL STREET ECONOMISTS to revise their guesstimates upward, the NFP would not have been such a miss from the early consensus. The average hourly earnings were above projections and while MANUFACTURING JOBS were up only 11,000, it was not a negative number. Although it wasn’t a robust number, it certainly wasn’t a huge miss from projections.
Notes From Underground: Was Obama at the G-20? Is Soros daft? Was the G-20 Communique was Drafted By the OWS Scribe?
November 6, 2011In President Obama’s G-20 press conference the mood was somewhat upbeat as he boasted that the economic powerhouses had made progress on the issues of economic growth. The President also was confident that Europe can meet it challenges as leaving Cannes, he felt that a “solid foundation has been built.” It seems that Obama failed to capture the real mood of the FAILED G-20 meeting as the Financial Times had two very morose articles about the G-20 and a solution on the European debt crisis.
Notes From Underground: Did I miss anything while I was away???
September 7, 2011The unemployment report on Friday was much weaker than expected as zero net jobs were created. More disheartening was that average hourly earnings produced a negative number, which failed to confirm and support the earlier released personal consumption data. The equity markets went into risk-off mode as the economy went into the Labor Day weekend in a very fragile state.
Notes From Underground: Larry Summers and His Discontent
July 19, 2011In Monday’s Financial Times there is a column by Lawrence Summers, the GODFATHER of U.S. economic policy. Mr. Summers offers the Europeans a great deal of advice on “HOW TO SAVE THE EUROZONE IN THE COMING CRITICAL WEEKS.” The article is actually a good policy prospective if there was not the issue of politics that play a large and important role in the EU‘s inability to resolve its fiscal difficulties. Summers wants to believe that the EUROCRATS have the political mandate to negotiate Brussel’s desire for a peaceful, state-supported EDEN of entitlements.