Wishing all my readers a Happy Thanksgiving. I’m thankful for all my blessings in my life and for the engagement with my readers in these tumultuous times. Enjoy the podcast I recorded with Anthony Cruedele as we consider investment themes going forward.
Thankfully, Yra
I recorded this podcast on Sunday, April 5, 2020 with Anthony Crudele and it’s chock-full of analysis. Enjoy!
On Monday, I had a chat with Anthony Crudele about the global macro impact on markets in 2020. As I always warn (in an effort to mimic MAO), there are many potential prairie fires in the world that COULD be ignited by a single spark. The Middle East is a potential prairie fire — every year. We were reminded of this over the last week as multiple events in IRAQ/IRAN brought the world to the precipice of cataclysmic outcomes. For now, the situation seems to be contained as GOLD, sovereign bonds and other tools of wealth protection.
This is the 10th anniversary of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND. I published the first post on December 17, 2009. WordPress has an archive where readers can go back and find many things that are still relevant today. I want to thank those who edit my work, send stories and references for me to research, as well as the many who had brought their thorough and thoughtful comments to help promote a higher level of discourse and investment possibilities, and, of course, all of our subscribers.
NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND will take on an enhanced roll as the GLOBAL MACRO WUNDERKIND DENNIS GARTMAN is heading to the golf course for a well deserved round of 18. So, my gift to you all this holiday season: An FRA PODCAST I recorded with Chris Whalen and Peter Boockvar. Enjoy and pour the libation of your choice (mine is now a Maker’s Mark). All the best!
On October 31, I had the pleasure of the recording a discussion with Anthony Crudele and the always insightful Jim Bianco. These spots with Futures Television provide context to many things discussed in NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND. I have been fortunate to have been chosen to appear with many high level global macro analysts.
Then on Sunday, I spoke with FRA’s Richard Bonugli and Dr. Marc Faber, one of the most heralded analysts in the global macro world. We covered the important issues for fifty-five minutes. It is my pleasure to share both of these conversations with you all.
As Stephen Sondheim wrote in the dark musical Sweeney Todd, “What’s the sound in the world out there. It’s man devouring man. The history of the world, my sweet, is who gets eaten and who gets to eat.”
I open with this thought in regards to a wonderful op-ed piece in the Barron’s over the weekend by John Curran titled, “The Coming Renaissance of Macro Investing.” Curran has the pedigree of writing this piece as he served his time at one of the greatest global macro funds, Caxton Partners. There are no greater thinker/traders than Stan Druckenmiller or Bruce Kovner. When it came to understanding the role of foreign currencies in creating investment opportunities Kovner is the wisest I have ever had the pressure to read. The last 10 years have been difficult for the global macro discretionary crowd but as John Curran suggests the winds of change are blowing. This is also a theme I have been discussing of late. The big difference in my opinion is that short-term trades will morph into momentum investments.
Everybody is talking at me and I can’t hear a word they’re saying, only the echoes of mismanaged policy. The academics are out and about, making the case as to why they are right and markets are WRONG, although Professor Summers gives much more credibility to the wisdom of markets than Bernanke or Fischer. The reason that this is important for traders and investors is that in the past six years, risk pricing has been based on the positive outcome of Fed policy.
In an effort to state how badly the markets are ignoring risk, we at Notes From Underground warned about being short volatility. As we head into the Passover and Easter holidays there is much on the table that financials fail to appreciate. A global market focused on the pantheon of central bankers it is the my task to remind of the major issues facing the world’s POLITICAL ECONOMY.
Also in the spirit of the holidays:
If the U.S. Treasury had done only TARP … it would’ve been enough
If the Fed had only provided QE1 … it would’ve been enough
If the Fed had only done QE2 … it would’ve been enough
If the Fed had only done Operation Twist … it would’ve been enough
If the Fed had only done QE Infinity … it would’ve been enough
If Mario Draghi had pledged no taboos … it would’ve been enough
If Mario Draghi had pledged to do whatever it takes … it would’ve been enough
If the BOJ had only doubled the money supply … it would’ve been enough
If the BOJ had only bought massive amounts of JGBs … it would’ve been enough
If the Japanese were only buying foreign bonds … it would’ve been enough
If all the world’s central banks had lowered interest rates to zero … it would’ve been enough
AND NOW FOR THE BITTER HERBS!
Wishing all of our readers a happy and healthy Passover and Easter.
Today, in an interview with Betty Liu on Bloomberg TV, I was asked about the “news” of the day, of course that being the APPLE decision to pay a dividend and buy back stock. Long-time readers of NOTES are aware that I am a believer in stock dividends as a way to return capital to the genuine owners of a corporation: THE SHAREHOLDERS. Ms. LIU wanted to know if the APPLE news was bullish for the EQUITY markets as the share price of the technological behemoth would drive all indices higher. As a GLOBAL MACRO analyst/trader/investor, I said that it was more bullish for capitalism in America.