The question that is framing the most recent debate in European circles is the one asked by Bernard Connolly for the last 18 years: Whose currency is the euro and who controls its outcome? The media has been full of stories about the gathering forces allied against AUSTERITY:
Posts Tagged ‘Jens Weidmann’
What ailed the markets yesterday seems to have moved to the back pages and the equity markets recovered most of their losses. Gold and silver staged very tepid rallies considering the massive selling that took place during the past week. The global equity markets are still comfortable with central bank policy and even a terrorist attack on U.S. soil cannot shake of confidence of investors seeing high profits, low inflation and no alternative to the returns on equity. It is an old theme but when a market continues to discount unfavorable data and news the power of momentum is in full bloom.
This week brings the Moscow circus to the world stage. The world’s major economies meet in Moscow as the Russians are presently in the leadership position of the G-20′s rotating presidency. It used to be the G-7 nations that crafted an economic blueprint for the World Bank and IMF to somewhat adhere, but as much of the global economic growth is now in the BRICS and the other emerging economies, the world’s former colonial powers have had to make room for the rising economic nations. Most of the time the G-7 and G-20 meetings have been photo-ops for world leaders, but every once in a great while something constructive actually makes its way into global policy. The immediate global consensus after the Lehman debacle helped stem the global credit markets from total collapse. This G-20 meeting will not be one of the constructive outcomes as the G-20 members are nowhere near any type of consensus.
First and foremost: Notes From Underground has become a global community and the outpouring of support and condolences to my family has been phenomenal. Again, my heartfelt thanks to all who expressed such wonderful thoughts.
Much has transpired since last Sunday as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have continued their recent weakness as intervention with the intention of forcing the YEN and FRANC lower have been very successful. Also, as usual, I will poke at this weeks circus in Davos, Switzerland. From my perspective, the entire conclave of insider trading–as the rich and business elites gather to discuss ways to save the world–in the last 20 years are a direct result of the political and economic movers and shakers exchanging ideas in the Swiss Alps. Yes, we go from crisis to crisis.
Yes, the U.S. Presidential election is finally here. After the POLITICAL-INFO COMPLEX has spent the $6 billion on various political campaigns, we are left wondering why anyone would contribute money to feed the monster and prolong our agony. I know the answer and the “road to political hell is not paved with good intentions.” There are so many polls predicting a very tight race that I care not for the popular predictions. As an investor/trader I am much more concerned about the outliers. First, the most significant result would be for the Democrats to retake the house. The 2010 Republicans claiming the majority in the House by such a wide margin was not predicted. If the Democrats were to undo 2010 it would mean a landslide victory for President Obama as well as the continued control of the Senate. The triple crown for the Democrats would be a negative for the markets as there would be no movement on the “fiscal cliff” as the Democratic leadership would be empowered with a mandate.
In his regular Monday Financial Times column, Wolfgang Munchau takes full aim at Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann for trying to make ECB President Draghi the devil incarnate. Because Weidmann invoked the Faustian character, Mephistopheles, from German hero Goethe’s play Dr. Faustus, Munchau accuses the Bundesbank President of undermining the policies of the ECB. Weidmann is going directly to the German public to plead his case that the ECB is taking the EU down the road of inflationary hell and monetary debasement. Munchau takes up the Draghi/Bernanke/Woodford argument that “the debate about nominal income targeting, where a central bank no longer stabilizes the inflation rate directly but focuses instead on stabilizing NOMINAL GDP (emphasis mine).” Munchau assumes that the central banks would be vigilante in controlling inflation but offers no view about what happens if NGDP rises with a significant rise in inflation but unemployment has not met the desired target.
Notes From Underground: The GCC WILL ANNOUNCE AT 4:00 a.m. EST … Until Then, “ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT”September 11, 2012
The equity market recouped some of yesterday’s loss as the entire trading day was position squaring ahead of the German Constitutional Court rendering its decision on the constitutionality of the ESM and the role of ECB moves to buy the primary issuance of European sovereign debt. There are many pundits trying to place probabilities on the court’s decision but I am not briefed enough in the BASIC LAW of Germany to even try to make that bold a prediction. To my mind, I will concentrate on the language the court uses and what position it takes in directing the German government to have to consent to the WILL OF THE PEOPLE. Will it direct the Merkel administration to return the issue to the Bundestag for approval of the new enhanced ECB “bailout” or will it suggest that the entire Maastricht Treaty needs to be approved by the entire citizenry through a REFERENDUM?
For the record, the Jackson Hole meeting actually takes place in the lodge at Grand Teton National Park. Again, the Ben Bernanke of QE fame WILL NOT OFFER UP ANOTHER ROUND OF QE AT THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM. To do so would let the scallywags that OCCUPY WASHINGTON TO FINISH ANOTHER YEAR IN OFFICE WITH A GOLD MEDAL FOR IRRESPONSIBILITY. Chairman Bernanke, the WALL STREET MACHINE is hoping that you provide another dose of LIQUIDITY. Do not perform as OLD FAITHFUL and deliver. Force the hand of ELECTED OFFICIALS to actually make a serious attempt to deal with their constitutionally prescribed responsibility, FISCAL POLICY.
Today’s RETAIL SALES report was far weaker than anticipated. With Bernanke testifying to CONGRESS (Senate on Tuesday, House Wednesday), will the FED Chairman reveal anything to the “FOOLS ON THE HILL” as the knives will be out as politicians need to be seen as pressuring the FED for the voters back home. As previously reported, the June’s FOMC MINUTES revealed, “Several participants commented that it would be desirable to explore the possibility of developing new tools to promote more accommodative financial conditions and thereby support a stronger economic recovery.”