Now that the FED has provided the U.S. and world financial system with a suit of liquidity, it is trying to figure out how to reduce the amount of material. The word “TAPER” is not my favorite for it fails to define what I believe is the goal of the FOMC. Who cares if the FED reduces it security purchases? That is not the problem. If the economy has any real traction the current balance sheet of more than $3 TRILLION should be quite sufficient to keep interest low. The dilemma is how to remove the LIQUIDITY without causing a collapse in Bernanke’s beloved PORTFOLIO BALANCE CHANNEL.
Posts Tagged ‘JGBs’
Notes From Underground: Back To the Sixties–Output Gaps or Phillips Curves?
September 20, 2012The FED hounds were unmuzzled after last week’s FOMC and “The Line it Is Drawn. The Curse It is Cast.” Bob Dylan must have been anticipating the difference of opinion that is developing within the Federal Reserve bank. In a speech last night, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said: “There are many superb PHD theorists among the 19 members of the FOMC and support staff. There are only a handful of us–four, to be exact–who have worked as bankers or in the financial markets.” Fisher discussed holding back from further QE based on evidence from his business contacts. The Dallas Fed President was dismissed when,”Some suggested that perhaps my corporate contacts were not sophisticated in the workings of monetary policy.” (Hat tip to Professor K.W. for sending the piece). It seems that the collegial attitude is eroding at the FED if the ivory tower is not the place of residence. Today, it was the Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota who delivered what I consider to be an outlandish speech.
Notes From Underground: As I PONDER WEAK AND WEARY
May 17, 2012The market action has rendered this trader/analyst very weak and weary … quoth the trader nevermore. When FUNDAMENTALS MEET A DELEVERAGING SET IN MOTION IT IS ENOUGH TO LEAVE ONE WEAK AND WEARY. Every conversation I have had for three days is: What is wrong with the GOLD and how can it not rally with all the problems that the global financial system is facing? The corollary to the GOLD IS OF COURSE THE GLOBAL BOND MARKETS. Today, the SCHATZ traded down to three basis points. The U.S. 2/10 yield curve is undergoing a severe flattening as the curve closed at around 143 BASIS POINTS TODAY. The buying of high quality DEBT is indicative of a movement to havens coupled with the need for QUALITY COLLATERAL FOR THE REPO MARKET.
