The Fed’s policy has painted itself into a proverbial corner. A ZEROHEDGE piece shows that in the age group of 16-55 there has been a loss of 2.7 million jobs during the previous few years, while in the 55-69 age group there has been a gain of 4 million jobs. This has been a recurrent theme of Notes From Underground during the last two years. The FED‘s policy of financial repression has resulted in an outcome that its beloved models failed to predict. The baby boomers haven’t been able to retire because their saving plans have been undermined by the zero interest rate policy. Zerohedge shows that debt-ladened college graduates are unable to find jobs and thus are struggling to repay education loans. Recent college grads are forced to live at home and are not creating new households.
Posts Tagged ‘oil’
Before I take a few days hiatus (well deserved) and with the world in a more “serene” state, it is a good time to contemplate the recent news out of the GULF REGION. In a story in yesterday’s Financial Times, “Saudis battle to calm oil fears,” it seems that the Saudis have consigned 11 VLCCS to send a total of TWENTY-TWO MILLION BARRELS of crude to the U.S. This is an interesting development as high U.S. gas prices are seen to be an issue in the upcoming presidential election.
The “MARKET” will resolve to test the GRIT of traders and investors as the mysteries of politics and economics collide to make the daily lives of traders difficult, to say the least. In 2011, the markets left traders and various investors sleeping like babies as we were relegated to getting up every hour to cry. We must remember that the market’s “JOB” is to cause as much heartache and pain to as many people as possible as money seeks to attain a positive return Last year the market was in its full glory as it caused some of the world’s foremost global macro investors to be humbled in a capacity not seen since the credit market debacle of 1994-95. This year seems to be of a similar ilk as the travails of the EUROPEAN UNION will continue to weigh upon the flows of global capital.
Yes, all the news about Prime Minister Berlusconi is pure puff and nonsense. The Italian economic situation will not change one iota when Silvio steps aside and, in fact, I would argue that the situation will become more volatile. Italy has seen so many governments come and go since the end of WORLD WAR II that it must be the role model for Japan. Mr. Berlusconi may be a scoundrel but the markets and the Italians know what they have and it seems that Berlusconi the known is better than what may come next. If the present government falls there is a possibility that a more leftist coalition will be formed and it is doubtful if it would be prone to pass an AUSTERITY plan.
Round and round the EU goes as it searches for a way to resolve its self-made crisis. As predicted, the Germans and French leaked news to the press–via the Guardian–that a deal had been struck, which would provide the EFSF and the ECB with an equivalent of 2 TRILLION Euros for aiding and abetting the bailout and support of the European financial system. The early afternoon news story gave impetus for the equities to RALLY as well as a SELLOFF in the DOLLAR. The precious metals staged a late recovery after a very severe correction in the morning–GOLD was down almost $50 at its lows.
For all those who have ever been involved with American Youth Soccer Organization (AYSO), it is easy to see the similarity between the EBA‘s “stress tests” and a youth soccer game. Like AYSO, the Euro STRESS TESTS meant that everyone who plays gets a trophy for showing up. The philosophy is that every participant is a WINNER. Also, there is no keeping score for that would be bad sportsmanship. So, the EURO STRESS TESTS are treated in the same light.
It is time for the ECB president to leave the scene as he is losing the credibility that he has labored so hard to construct. Mr. Trichet delivered the widely expected phrase “STRONG VIGILANCE” in his post-ECB monetary policy press conference. The EURO made its high for the day on the utterance of the words “STRONG VIGILANCE” but sold off quickly as Trichet emphasized that the ECB does not signal a guarantee on future interest rates. The guardian of EURO monetary policy desired to keep the markets off-balance.
Notes From Underground: Hey Mr.Bernanke and/FED–GOD GAVE YOU TWO EARS and ONE MOUTH SO LISTEN MORE AND SPEAK LESS!April 14, 2011
The news out of Europe today was not favorable for Greece as it was reported in the German paper DIE WELT that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble suggested Greece would need to restructure. Schäuble’s comments led the cost of interest rate on the DEBT of the peripherals to rise. By day’s end, Greek 2-year rates climbed to 16.8 percent. Portugal rose 25 basis points to 8.87 percent and Ireland increased 25 basis points to 8.20 percent. Spain’s bonds were also priced higher as rates increased 10 basis points. All in all, not a very splendid day for the European debt-stressed nations, but yet again the DOLLAR could not gain ground against the EURO as an initial DOLLAR rally faded quickly. It appears that some central banks are recalibrating reserves as even a DOLLAR rally seems to be so short-lived. The EURO has performed well even though it has the cloud of uncertainty overhanging its economic and political situation.