Last week we covered a great deal of ground on the economic front as the world’s central banks, from Beijing to Washington were busy generating versus types of stimulus programs. The Chinese government aided the cause by announcing an infrastructure program of $157 billion in an effort to generate even more stimulus to a slowing economy. As the Chinese authorities begin on a path of shifting the export model to a more domestic consumption type growth plan, there is a great deal of excess Chinese capital development that needs to be utilized and the slowdown in global economic growth mandates a shift in priorities for the POLITBURO.
Posts Tagged ‘Russia’
The media has made the idea of a TWIST by the FED a sure thing. Okay, can’t argue with consensus, but of course that is why this blog exists: To question the thought process of the purveyors of conventional wisdom and to try to profit in a real-time world from challenging the status quo. If the FED TWISTS will the markets turn? BUT TURN TO WHAT? What will a lowering of the rate on the 10-year note do to a stalling economy with zero interest rates? Bernanke himself alluded to the BALANCE SHEET REPAIR taking place in the private sector, which was holding back consumer demand. Even though corporate balance sheets are healthy, capital investment lags as the corporations fear lackluster demand so there is no rush to create new supply.
Notes is going to REPOST an old piece just to remind our readers and the financial world that the games surrounding the GREEK DEBT situation has turned into a marathon of concern and an Ironman competition of lies and deceit. The European policy makers are attempting to delay what the markets have deemed to be inevitable and pretend that a Greek restructuring will not take place. The fact that the market has driven two-year GREEK RATES to more than 25% is of no consequence to the EUROCRATS of Brussels for, as usual, the political elite will continue the facade of “ALL CLEAR” as the PIIGS move from crisis to crisis.
Notes From Underground: Hello? Central Casting, we need experts in market and political hieroglyphics–STATJanuary 30, 2011
All eyes have turned to Egypt as the political situation has caught the world’s financial markets off guard. The turmoil in Tunisia was merely a blip on the radar screen but the significance of Egypt is an entirely different matter. So much capital has been thrust at maintaining the status quo in Egypt that many financial analysts have been lulled into a pre-Minsky complacency: Stability breeds a false sense of comfort. The emerging markets have been the repository of the Bernanke QE2 program as low rates have led to the search for higher yields and let potential risk be damned or rather rationalized away by dusting off the models of Long Term Capital Management.
Notes From Underground: The World Awaits the State of the Union but it is Sarkozy in Search of A BalconyJanuary 24, 2011
First and foremost: My thoughts and prayers go out to the Russian people as the nihilistic elements of global terrorism crafted its senseless actions on the Moscow Airport. It is not my bullish view on Russia that provokes my thoughts, but rather the ugliness of NIHILISM. Random terrorist acts are to be opposed wherever and whenever they raise its spectre of wanton destructiveness. The Russians will of course respond with a heavy hand for Putin et al care very little about public relations. Brutality will beget brutality. Political expediency will trump all rationality for neither Medvedev nor Putin will want to be perceived as weak in the eyes of a resurgent nationalistic populace.
Some housekeeping weekend news: British Petroleum returned to the Russian market as it announced that it was swapping $16 billion shares of its stock for an equivalent amount of ROSNEFT, rendering the Kremlin the largest BP shareholder. BP management has determined that its future is better off in developing large Russian oil reserves than depending on the capriciousness of U.S. ENERGY POLICY. This is not an easy issue as some previous aggrieved parties are going to slow this agreement down until they receive compensation for past illegal moves by the PUTIN clique. More importantly, it says that serious business people are beginning to see a change in Russia and want to be part of the early movers into the “great potential.’
No major stories this New Year’s weekend. Dilma Rousseff was sworn in as the new president of Brazil and spoke to the need to continue the policies of LULA. She said her influence will be on battling inflation but the markets will watch her cabinet’s actions as she has also voiced concern about the rapid appreciation of the REAL, as the Brazilian currency has appreciated 39 percent during the last two years. The strong REAL has begun to hamper the Brazilian equity markets as it was up a mere 1.25 percent in a year that global commodities were the star performer. Brazilian debt markets are anticipating rates to rise this year so our eyes will be on the Brazilian central bank and watching to see how aggressive it is in stemming inflationary pressures.
It has been a great privilege to share my thoughts and market insights and allow me to occupy some of the highly prized real estate on your electronic devices. I can unequivocally say that I learn much from my readers and derive great benefit from synthesizing my thoughts and putting them into trades. The basis of NOTES is to make sense of the global political and financial fabric and then try to succeed where I believe the econometric and financial markets fail. It’s never easy to review one’s ideas and see where the failure to act has taken place.