One of the most important elements to the purpose of the financial markets is to be an indicator of flawed policy. If money is too loose, the BOND VIGILANTES will assure policy makers that it is time to tighten by pressuring BOND YIELDS higher. As Bill Clinton’s attack dogJames Carville so elegantly stated: “I want to be reincarnated as the bond market because it intimidates everyone.” The huge FED QE PROGRAM has temporarily castrated the BOND market as FED INTERVENTION means that the BOND VIGILANTES lack the fortitude to signal the markets. Even the EUROPEANS have momentarily silenced the market by the huge liquidity pump via the LTRO program with another LTRO coming at the end of February.
Posts Tagged ‘swissie’
The markets were all waiting for a major statement regarding the European political situation and its effect on the financial system. It wound up being the most banal as it makes me wonder what leaders of the two dominant nations in the EU held back from the media and markets. The main point was the announcement about a financial transaction tax, but to say there were no specifics about the tax given would be hyperbole. The markets were expecting some statement about an increase of funds for the EFSF, but again, nothing. The EURO was initially sold but by day’s end the damage to the currency was less than minimal.
Yesterday the Swiss National Bank surprised the markets by lowering overnight lending rates to basically ZERO–the nearby 90-Day EUROSWISS contract (Sept. 2011) traded for 2 basis points–or, 0.9998 for those keeping score. The SNB also pledged to increase sight deposits from 30 BILLION SWISS to 80 BILLION SWISS, a very aggressive liquidity add, all in an attempt to stem the rise in the FRANC. By the end of the trading day the SWISSIE recouped most of its overnight losses in an act of defiance.
DON’T SPEAK TOO SOON
FOR THE WHEEL’S STILL IN SPIN
AND THERE’S NO TELLIN’ WHO
THAT ITS NAMIN’
FOR THE LOSER NOW
WILL BE LATER TO WIN
FOR THE TIMES THEY,
THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’
The markets have greeted Sunday’s purported U.S. budget deal with a great sigh of relief as the S&P futures have opened 1.5% higher. At this moment it is difficult to determine what exactly has been agreed. It seems that Boehner was able to placate the “TEA PARTY” caucus for the moment–enough to get some compromise.
The unemployment number on Friday was tepid relative to consensus. The ADP data on Wednesday raised Wall Street’s “animal spirits” and ramped up expectations of a NFP number of more than 200,000. Hours worked and average hourly earnings were also soft. The outlier on the data was the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE which dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.8 percent. Soon after the report was released, an avid reader, ASA, pointed out a piece on ZERO HEDGE, that analyzed what an aberration a 103,000 job gain is in relation to such a significant drop in the rate of the unemployed.