As our readers know, we can’t resist a good pun and oh well, there is nothing you can say that can’t be sung. The flight of all the democratic and republican stalwarts makes us uncomfortable to say the least. As some profess, it is the rats leaving a sinking ship. We are not in that camp yet and try to analyze what else may be taking place. We are beginning to think that the centrists are going to try to form a third party so as to challenge the hold of lobbyists and big money on the traditional parties. There is no doubt that the Massachusettes election has made a great impact, but it can’t be such a great impact that incumbents are now fearful. The power of the incumbency is still great in its power to attract the PAC money that is so badly needed to fight the media-centered campaigns. Evan Bayh, the consummate Democratic centrist abandoning the race really makes us think that there is more here than meets the eye but that is why we live in the 2+2=5 world. Nothing is ever as it seems!
Just a heads up: The most talked about news article is the Financial Times opinion piece by Otmar Issing,“Europe cannot afford to rescue Greece.” The former bundesbanker and member of the ECB executive board laid out a very German take on the problem of bailing out the Greeks. Issing says the bailout undermines the whole purpose of the Growth and Stability Pact, which was the compromise for Germany being in the EMU. He reminds everyone that all nations involved freely agreed to the rules and therefore must be adhered to and supported. The article is a must-read to get the full flavor of the German stance. However, we believe it is more posturing for Germany to gain the political advantage in negotiations. The balance sheets of German commercial banks are still an achilles heel for the Merkel Government, which makes them ever more strident to strike the best poltical deal for the Bavarian Burghers.
February 16, 2010 at 1:06 am |
If no rescue then the problem is even larger as the CDS’s will go boom.
February 16, 2010 at 2:12 am |
Yra,
appreciate your insights. Re Greece this question, maybe because I am German: What sensible deal could be possibly be made ? The German banks money is lost anyway. The banks who displaced it are mostly state-owned and provided with bad bank-good bank constructs already. What kind of money could be recouperated from Greece? The 20 or so greek families who control the country will not share it with german taxpayers.
There will only be some debt rollover. We will pretend to give a bail-out and the Greeks will pretend to pay their debt. And later on, it will blow up as it has to anyway…..
February 16, 2010 at 5:38 am |
february made me shiver, with every euro i delivered…
February 16, 2010 at 5:49 am |
Never underestimate the hubris of the political class and the politician who thinks he is the answer. Bayh’s father was a well liked populist in the Wendell Wilkie mold. (That was cross party appeal!) Evan is even more likable than his Dad. He rode the family name into public office, right up to the Governorship, in a time of plenty. Regardless of his pedigree, he and other “centrists” chaff at the damage being done to their party in pushing world changing agendas. Bayh has Presidential aspirations and had considered running in the ’08 primaries. I believe he is taking the Senate shackles off and preparing to run. Maybe he thinks he’s “the one,” to save the Democratic Party from itself. My bet is he challenges Obama in 2012, IF the “second coming” himself decides to retire to some loftier endeavor where he won’t have to worry about being misunderstood and unappreciated by the masses.
As for a third party morphing out of Democratic centrists and John McCain, and the New England block of GOP powerhouses, there seem to be too many egos to partition as well as a combined voting record that shows anything but conviction for policy less influenced by push-pull politics. The real change (…did I use that?..) has to be bottom up within the established parties.
Yra, thanks for stirring the thoughts!
February 16, 2010 at 6:50 am |
joe–excellent comments –and I believe that your insight for a presidential run have merit.People don’t relinquish power easily for it is an aphrodisiac—even kissinger was getting some booty regularly
February 16, 2010 at 7:13 pm |
Kissinger probably has gotten more booty than an NBA All-Star,and is probably still getting it, and is likely #2 all time behind Warren Beatty.
February 16, 2010 at 12:09 pm |
hahahha
February 16, 2010 at 2:13 pm |
“Just a heads up: The most talked about news article is the Financial Times opinion piece by Otmar Issing,“Europe cannot afford to rescue Greece.”
Really?
Lisa Hintz of Moody’s said: “Make no mistake, a Greek default is another potential credit crisis in the making… it is not just the writedown of Greek debt; it is the mark-to-market of other sovereign debt.
“That would bankrupt the bulk of the European banking system, which is why it is unlikely to be allowed to happen.”
Hmmm.
February 16, 2010 at 4:22 pm |
Fred—i agree with the default angle –but as I have pointed out the germans are posturing for greater political leverage and Issing is more of the same—-but as you can see from today’s EURO trade the market is preparing for some type of short term resolution—-I just wanted to make the readers be aware of the issing piece before the talking heads put a spin to it that I disagreed with
February 16, 2010 at 8:45 pm |
My guess for Greece.. same answer we have for our financial mess: Extend and Pretend. Germany will buy Greek bonds, demand change.. Greece will pretend to implement budget cuts.. Angela Merkel’s party suffers as the polls. Voila !! I used to think the IMF would do it at the end of the day, but more and more I think about it, kicking the can down the road serves all interested parties smashingly well (until it does’nt).
As for Bayh, I honestly believe he sees no good ending and has decided to bail lest he be associated with the failures to come. He’s posturing for the future.