Notes From Underground: German presidential election is a litmus test for Frau Merkel…

The revelation: she leaves a sour taste in the mouths of Germans.

Chancellor Merkle’s hand-picked candidate for German president, Christian Wulff, did not receive a majority of votes in the 1,244-member assembly of federal lawmakers–similar to the electoral college in the U.S.–and will have to go on to further ballots. Wulff had 600 of the needed 623, thus keeping the opposition candidates alive. If any of the candidates fail again to achieve the needed majority, then the process goes to a third ballot in which the candidate with most votes wins.

We believe that Merkel’s candidate will prevail but the failure on the first vote is a slap at the chancellor. The meaning of this slap is that it makes the German Government bailouts of the PIIGS that much more problematic as the German public is growing tired of sending its money to the profligate. The internal opposition to further bailouts is the real threat to sovereign solvency within the EU. It is not the strikers in the peripherals, as significant as that may be, but the rise of opposition in Germany to sustained money transfer. We continue to say that the real TEA PARTY people are in Germany and there in lies the rub. We also note that the EURO has held up very well today in spite of this news. However,  one day on month-end/quarter-end doth not make a trend but does reflect on the U.S. DOLLAR. The problems in the developed world are immense –no nation seems to have escaped. It’s just a matter of what seems to be the flavor of the day.

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3 Responses to “Notes From Underground: German presidential election is a litmus test for Frau Merkel…”

  1. GreenAB Says:

    love your insight.
    but you´re wrong on this – sorry.

    there is nothing like a tea party movement over here.

    none of the the five parties in the bundestag really do oppose help for the greek.

    true – the opposition didn´t vote for the bailout package.
    but it was not that they recognized it as a waste of taxpayer money.
    what the opposition wanted was a sharp blow to the “speculators” (=Tobin Tax) and they wanted the banks to pay a large share (since in the opposition´s eyes they´ve caused the crisis. )

    the Greece issue isn´t discussed in the media or by ordinary people anymore.
    i think many already have forgotten about it.

    what angers German citizens right now is the new austerity package and the way it is designed – further cuts for the little guy while the rich aren´t ask to share the burden. (instead the coalition – knowing of the desastrous deficit – had the nerve to cut taxes for hotel owners and wealthy heirs at the beginning of the year).

    so I agree – Merkel is in a deep hole.

    but even if the coalition fails (not likely due to the bad sentiment bor both) – there won´t be a change in euro policy if we get back to a left leaning coalition.

  2. stongpat Says:

    funny how europe and the usa have reversed themselves–ok, so the usa wants to be more like europe? go conservative!

  3. yra Says:

    GreenAB–great comments and appreciated—but I make the tea party refernece as to the fact that the Germans appear to be tired of financing those who have live dbeyond their means for way too long and are tired of supporting those who failed to make the needed reforms such as hartz IV

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