Notes From Underground: Another Day and the Market Floats On the Sea of Complacency

My appearance with Rick Santelli on CNBC picked up on last night’s blog post. We discussed our concerns about the 7-3 vote in which the Fed Governors bested the Presidents. The FOMC has proven to be horrendous forecasters as Larry Summers suggested in his Washington Post op-ed in which he called out Yellen for her speech at Jackson Hole. Comparing Yellen’s forecast to Bernanke’s horrendous outlook on the housing crisis containment in 2007 was  a tremendous insult. It seems that the Magnificent Seven have circled the wagons in defense against the ubiquitous criticism being leveled at the world’s central banks from fellow academics, traders, and pension and insurance companies. There was an interesting headline by Bloomberg that summarized Yellen’s press conference: “Yellen: Rich, Deep, Serious Intellectual Debate Today.” The intellectuals prevailed within the walls of the world’s most important debating society. The outcomes from central bank policy will make the fourth quarter a land of great trading opportunity. Do not be short volatility on a middle-term basis. The investment world is sitting on the tinder of multiple prairie fires. Which spark will light the tinder?

Yra & Rick, Sept. 22, 2016Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss yesterday’s BOJ and Fed meetings.

 

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9 Responses to “Notes From Underground: Another Day and the Market Floats On the Sea of Complacency”

  1. Rob Syp Says:

    Its seems like the last hit of morphine from Yellen & Company is not leading to new highs in the SPOOS which it has done in the past. As you said in your first post back from a vaca be ready for some 4th volatility.

    Mr. Paulsen brings up something in the link that should be paid attention to.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/this-chart-may-say-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-market.html

  2. yra Says:

    Rob–thanks for the link and the feedback–Jim Paulsen is a reasonable person and good stock analyst but we shall see if the profit picture improves

  3. Chicken Says:

    The most corrosive organization known. The prairie fire can’t be put out, for anything thrown on or at it in attempt to smother or control it (honesty and common decency for instance) provides fuel.

    This is the fire that must literally burn itself to completion.

  4. ShockedToFindGambling Says:

    Yra- Yellen has no choice but to portray the USA economy as OK. If she came out and said the economy was weakening, it would start a financial panic.

    I don’t think she believes it…….most indicators have been weak for the last few weeks, including the Labor Market Conditions Index (supposedly one of her favorites) which looks like it’s going into recessionary territory.

    Watch what I do,,,,not what I say.

  5. Rob Syp Says:

    Any comments on Deutsche Bank? Getting close to single digit stock price and if that happens when is a life preserver necessary?

  6. Chicken Says:

    There goes “whatever it takes” => “breaking up is hard to do”.

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