Today I did an interview with Anthony Crudele, a trader’s trader, on Futures Radio. It was a fifteen-minute discussion about the Fed’s actions yesterday. Rather than writing up my thoughts I feel it is better for my readers to turn into listeners. This is an in-depth way to convey my thoughts, and, as with Rick Santelli, when a person of market intelligence asks questions the conversation is at a much higher level. If only Rick Santelli and I had this much time. Oh well, it’ s just a podcast away.
Click here to listen to the interview
Tags: Anthony Crudele, Fed, Futures Radio
December 16, 2016 at 1:06 am |
Thanks Yra, I always love hearing your thoughts, wow. Unfortunately, my connection blinked and jammed up right when you began discussing gold.
December 16, 2016 at 5:42 am |
Yra-Very interesting interview. You make a strong point regarding the Yellin hawkish comment at 1:51 Chicago time. You had earlier not given much credence to the three dot comment vs., the expected two dot (which I have always disregarded as well). Why do you take the “running hot remark” any more seriously than her other forecast? Fed chair persons always use words and their jaw bone rather than actions as their main tool.
If interest rates keep rising and inflation heats up (central bankers may finally get their wish in spades) how will this impact global economies with the global Debt/GDP where it is? What will be the impact on equity markets that have tripled since the 2009 lows?
And if the US economy is as strong as it is supposed to be, we should see this in top line growth in Q4 which should be known in the next month.
And finally, if the global economy finally has its underpinnings cut from under them, what will be the impact on the dollar and where will the investor find a safe haven?
Lots of questions, some of which are rhetorical.
December 16, 2016 at 8:28 am |
Asherz–thanks for the feedback and as you note many questions and this just lays the groundwork for answering them
December 16, 2016 at 11:47 am |
A couple of headwinds I’ve noted here are increased rate of jobs export (due to strong $US) and rising rates tempering funding availability for fiscal stimulus plans.
I’ve also heard of intentions for issuance out as far as 100 years, this sounds like a potential source of fiscal funding and debt markets might be positioning for this?
December 16, 2016 at 11:55 am |
Additionally, and false news is to be avoided when/if possible or perhaps the subject simply isn’t important? However:
“China halted trading for the first time ever in futures contracts of government bonds after prices had swooned, with the 10-year yield hitting 3.4%. Trading didn’t resume until after the People’s Bank of China injected $22 billion into the short-term money market.”
I realize $22 billion is peanuts in terms of central banker shenanigans these days but this seems to be addressing some immediate concern that may become more of an issue going forward?
If it feels good, do it?
December 16, 2016 at 12:14 pm |
Oh, forgot to comment on CBO,,,, While it’s true if we’d followed their forecast we wouldn’t be living in cardboard boxes and unable to afford a cup of coffee, they have the luxury of racking up debt and giving away the farm.
Surely they’re well compensated for their hard work?
December 16, 2016 at 12:22 pm |
Fake forecasts at least create the air of optimism required for exploitation of the misinformed.
December 16, 2016 at 1:57 pm |
Yra
China vs Trump
Is there a chance China tries to literally destroy Trump to keep the status quo with the current USA/China trade policy? Why would they ever want the current trade policy to change and possibly forever?
China could use trade wars, punish USA companies which would turn USA CEOs against Trump, etc., etc..
Would China care if their economy suffered for 4years to prevent Trump from changing current trade policy – 4years of China pain for long term gain?
Think back to Carter halting Ag Exports to Russia – Hurt both USA and USSR for a period. Doesn’t China have more to lose than USA vs USSR?
December 16, 2016 at 11:42 pm |
“Activity in the region’s service sector held steady” NY FED
“Steady” in this case means a negative 0.6 in the diffusion index of Business Activity.
December 18, 2016 at 10:11 am |
Everyone’s Optimistic About the Markets. Is It Time to Worry?
December 18, 2016 at 5:52 pm |
Considering we have full employment, what could go wrong?
December 18, 2016 at 5:57 pm
That combined with white hot GDP growth and inflation concerns gives us an aggressive dot plot.