On Monday, I taped a podcast with Peter Boockvar and Anthony Crudele, the host of Futures Radio. Anthony does a splendid job of getting to the crux of the investing mind. Enjoy the 36 minutes of conversation.
The yield curve continued to flatten and even Rick Santelli was able to question Professor Ken Rogoff about the FED‘s most recent efforts to raise interest rates. There are now voices raising concerns over the continued flattening of the curve, which will remain a theme here at NOTES. As tensions eased in Syria the GOLD gave back all of Wednesday’s gains while holding onto a slight increase for the week. The rise in short-term yields without any new political revelations allowed the U.S. dollar to rally. Enjoy the podcast and your weekend.
Tags: Futures Radio, Gold, U.S. yield curves
April 14, 2018 at 10:02 am |
Syrian tensions rekindled and gold responded accordingly. It’s not clear to me if Assad actually launched chemical weapons, that’s hard to imagine. I still recall the rusted hulk photos of Hussein’s chemical weapons yard and the $trillions spent since, on DOD contracts.
April 15, 2018 at 1:52 pm |
Agree 100%.
April 15, 2018 at 1:51 pm |
Always appreciate these podcasts to help exercise the mind while I’m exercising on the treadmill.
Ben Hunt PhD at Epsilon Theory made an excellent observation about a mathematically inevitable wage inflation print as a result of BLS calculation quirks, which is particularly germane to a number of the other topics discussed herein. Without further ado then, here is his bottom line (his entire opus and explanation can be easily googled and read).
“In exactly the same way that random observations of work-week hours have artificially depressed the average hourly wage inflation cartoon reported by the BLS over the past two months, there is a 100% chance that random observations of work-week hours will artificially magnify the wage inflation cartoon reported by the BLS in some future months. This is not an opinion. This is, as they say, math. For example, if the 12 minute difference in the March 2017 work-week (34.3 hours) and the March 2018 work-week (34.5 hours) had been reversed, the reported wage inflation last Friday would have clocked in at 3.9%. Let me repeat that. Three point nine percent. That is an Emperor-has-no-clothes moment…
Again, this is math.”
April 15, 2018 at 3:51 pm |
David–thanks and I read the Ben Hunt view ans as usual it pushes all to stretch our minds.The problem will always be the fed models and the use of counterfactuals to smooth any criticism
April 15, 2018 at 2:22 pm |
Great Yra… plus:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/04/gundlach-says-he-learned-in-elementary-school-that-tariffs-caused-the-great-depression.html
April 16, 2018 at 9:20 am |
What Gundlach did not learn because the lesson has not been taught anywhere in modern times is the discounting of lower future prices for goods and services. Interest rates in the U.S. were reliably inverted for the last third of the 19th century, even as the ratios of wages and profits to the costs of food, shelter, energy and amusements literally soared and borrowers binged. No modern scholars have an explanation for this seeming paradox; even seemingly conservative Chicago economists (yra may disagree but I think Friedman was their leader) disliked the fact that it occurred. And yet, here we are again.
April 17, 2018 at 5:12 pm |
Stefan–here we are again in terms of borrowing bingeing or interest rates are inverted?The “good ” deflation of that period has perplexed many but of course the simplistic answer has been because of technology driving production high and pressing on prices.I have never been sure of the disconnects of this period but i certainly have read the cross of gold speech many times as I find it fascinating.I have no easy answer to this but the productivity miracle was certainly a factor