The other day I called question to the tepid G-7 statement, which was followed by a 50 basis point CUT from the Federal Reserve. On Thursday the Financial Times published a story saying the Fed’s move was counter to a history of G-7 collaboration. Let us first dissuade the popular mythology of the G-7 as relevant to any serious global action. The colonial remnants of the authority of the bailiwick of the mechanism for the containment of the Soviet Empire are a JOKE. During the financial crisis it was the moves made by China that did more to stabilize global growth than any action by the G-7.
In reality, the decisions prompted by Canada, Italy, Germany, France,Japan, the U.K. and U.S. are simply not worth the paper upon which they are communicated.
The U.S. will do as it pleases in a post-Soviet world when it comes to its finances. The RESERVE STATUS of the DOLLAR is of paramount importance for the global financial system. This is what always makes the U.S. situation different from the policies of the Japanese and Europeans. The HUGE amount of dollar-denominated debt is an albatross around the balance sheet of emerging markets, which results in a NEGATIVE FEEDBACK loop for the entire global financial system.
The onset of the Covid-19 virus resulted in a collapse in the value of emerging market currencies, as well as the commodity prices that they are so dependent on for revenue. This was a rapid reversal from what was beginning to take hold in the first two weeks of January when the world was anticipating a surge in growth following the lessening of tensions between the U.S. and China. Even heightened tension couldn’t dissuade investors from selling the DOLLAR and purchasing commodities as the BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX was rallying to critical technical levels. But as the fear of VIRUS intensified, OIL and COPPER prices declined 15% due to concerns about a global demand shock.
The DOLLAR rallied as its haven status gained ascendance especially versus the emerging market currencies and even 4% against the developed world currencies: EURO, YEN, AUSSIE, LOONIE. It is this DOLLAR strength that necessitated the FOMC to jump into action and in my opinion this was the purpose of the G-7 meeting. This is what happened in October 2012 when there was an IMF meeting where the Japanese and Chinese agreed to support a struggling Europe by purchasing the BONDS of the European Stability Mechanism (Notes From Underground, October 14, 2012: “Christine Lagarde Is Quietly Raising Her Voice”).
In this BLOG I raised the issue about Japanese acquiescence as a quid pro quo for G-7/IMF nodding to an effort for the Japanese to weaken the YEN that was joking its economy and resulting in a hollowing out of Japanese manufacturing.
The FT had it wrong today for there has been history of a nod and wink to currency adjustment. At the time, the YEN was near 78 per dollar and over the next two years it depreciated to 125 per dollar, which alleviated some of the pressure on Japanese deflation and economic performance.
In my opinion this has been what the FED seeks to accomplish and it will not result in other countries trying to counteract U.S. actions for that would unleash even more aggressive actions. A strong dollar is detrimental to global growth at this time. In addition, if I am right in my assessment the yield curves OUGHT to steepen as investors comprehend what this action will create.
***John Plender’s column in the Financial Times is of extreme importance. Titled, “The SEEDS OF THE NEXT DEBT CRISIS,” it is important for it raises concerns about how “the coronavirus raises the extraordinary prospect of a credit crunch in a world of ultra-low negative interest rates.” The policies of the world’s central banks to flood the financial system with liquidity for the past 10 years has led to a systemically mispricing of risk all around the globe.
As Plender noted, the IIF study-global debt to gross domestic product hit an “all-time high of over 322% in the third quarter of 2019.” The massive amount of corporate debt of non-financial institutions is one of the potential problems of an overly strong dollar. If global growth shrinks loans get called in fear of high risk borrowers inability to pay. It’s the great problem of a demand shock.
Read the PLENDER piece to get a much broader perspective. Don’t forget, there’s also an unemployment report tomorrow. Does anybody really care except if it is a strong number the algos will buy U.S. assets. Do the math to analyze if this rally would hold in the face of G-7 silence.
Tags: Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro, G-7, U.S. Dollar, Yen
March 6, 2020 at 3:59 am |
While I think this is an interesting and important piece, if true, this arrangement merely accelerated the decline of the dollar that’s been inevitable anyway based on the charts and the poor US financial position as I’ve touched on in prior posts (eg., US Fed is forced to print aggressively to directly fund USG and to prop US stawks, which feed USG tax receipts and at 160% of US GDP, are joined at the hip to the financialized US economy).
Two weeks ago, before the G7 and whilst the “strong dollar” was enjoying the recent zenith of its false move higher, I posited that the dollar was about to tumble, absent a move into triple digits that it failed to achieve. I didn’t specify my near-term key levels/targets, but those were mostly reached, broken yesterday and now await follow-thru for confirmation of trend.
It’ll be interesting to see whether there is indeed no action on the part of other central banks to “defend” the relative unwanted “strength” of their currencies, like USDJPY & USDCHF which sit at multiyear lows. Two points from this. One, gold has no central bank to weaken it. Two, USD will ultimately weaken substantially regardless of what any/all central banks do, except for a strong, countertrend burst higher (false move) during the coming international monetary crisis, which should ultimately dethrone king dollar, mark the demise of the dollar WRC, and rightfully crown King Gold.
So also keep an eye out on that gold-backed, offshore digital yuan approaching readiness, as China (unofficially) owns most of the world’s physical gold and is the clear global leader in advanced electronic money & payment systems, already ubiquitous there. Nobody is talking about it yet except for Harald Malmgren and a few others in an empty corner.
March 6, 2020 at 5:21 am |
Dave—as you know we go astray here but find ourselves with many interesting discussions that most importantly get us to profitable trades.The Yen trade from October ,2012 was one of those and provided a view that as you have proven begets intelligent discourse—-thanks .Yes, he you have been in the weak dollar or rather policy of dollar depreciation for many moons—and China buying silver would be a bimetalist victory in a fiat currency world.
March 6, 2020 at 5:56 am |
Yra
As markets toil and churn yet again this morning, isn’t it ironic that the “sick man of Asia” is seeing less stock market fear/agita than here or in Europe.
Will Jerome make another emergency cut on Sunday night as UST yields plunge towards Zero with 2 yr at 48 bp and 10 yr hitting overnight low of 71 BPs!!
Stock market cognitive dissonance
Investors rushing to buy Costco and Netflix and Zoom and Peloton as Covid plays.
While business for those companies may be up, do you think their margins have expanded by 20% y-t-d?
On Dec 31
Gold was $1519. Today $1685. Up 11%
WTI was $65. Today $44. Down 32%.
As oil/energy comprises 30%ish of mining costs, 30% of 32% is
9.60%
As discussed, investors are slowly re-discovering gold here in the US. No less a luminary than Jeff Gundlach was pounding the table for gold yesterday as the logical outcome of what is happening with US rates and the now official policy to weaken the USD
If Covid further weakens global economy, could WTI plummet another 10 or 20% from here, crashing into the $30s?
Might gold rise another 10% from here and hit $1850?
While investors ponder that, they can collect dividend yields of nearly 1% on several major gold miners.
Yet, because there are no pictures of people queuing to buy gold, but rather the narrative is of folks selling gold to raise $$, investors don’t see it. And algos are not programmed to consider buying gold, despite a fundamental shift in global monetary and FX affairs.
Yes, Costco and Netflix are doing fine, But when Covid panic finally subsides in 3/6/9 months, do you really think gold won’t be on a flight path towards $2000?
Currently, the Gold/S&P ratio has surged to 0.57, breaking way above the 9 year downslope since gold peaked at $1900 back in 2011.
Powerful reversal of a 9 yr trendline. I think gold’s fortune relative to stocks will only accelerate in the roaring 2020s
Mike
March 6, 2020 at 8:11 am |
I can remember crude in the middle teens if it can get to 30 it could get the there
March 6, 2020 at 8:58 am
70-year price chart:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
Arguably even more attractive than PM for the long run, good oil companies are perhaps setting up as one of the great trades/investments of this decade for when the higher inflation kicks in that’s being baked in the cake. Energy outperforms other commodities and gold in inflation, historically. Also, has anything ever been more hated than oil is now? The entire industry was valued the same as just tesla. Insane. While you’re waiting for recovery, enjoy the 7.5% dividend yield even on a blue-chip industry leader like XOM, which pays 12X as much as the 0.6% of the technically insolvent USG that’s deceptively devaluing its currency 15% per year, give or take 5%. No brainer?
Some of the smartest, richest, most successful fund mgrs and legendary investors are nibbling already. Follow the money.
March 6, 2020 at 9:27 am |
Dave There have been articles on seeking alpha about the sustainability of the XOM dividend According to Yahoo finance current payout ration>100% There may be value in the oil patch just not perhaps XOM. Note price of XOM now is the same as 2004 when oil price was between 38-51 not much progress given the capital investment that XOM has made over the last 15 years
March 6, 2020 at 10:26 am |
Yes, Bigman, thanks for that heads up! I’ve seen some of that sentiment too, and you’re right. But another thing too, per the Daily Dirtnap, Warren Buffett just now made an initial $10B acquisition of XOM from his $140B cash position? Let’s watch. This is a 2-3 year thing, at least. For Buffet, of course it’s “forever” haha. And with him onboard, at least top mgmt won’t be skimming 25-50% thru exec comp options etc like at so many other public US corps (reference Ben Hunt Epsilon Theory).
But yeah, selection is everything. Alas, I’m no oil analyst nor a good stock picker. But I’d imagine the US shale sector is an “avoid”.
March 6, 2020 at 10:43 am
Dave
XOM is intriguing, even if they cut the dividend by half, leaving a 3.50% yield in a world of ZIRP.
So many US shale operators face possible extinction as even bank debt may not be made whole.
If the Exxons of the world do decide to buy companies at the bankruptcy court, they will NOT ramp up production unless there is a proper ROE.
So, as Exxon definitely has staying power, especially with a 3.5% yield, it could rebound greatly if a post Covid world in 2021 sees oil rebound sharply as supply destruction may balance out against the Covid induced demand destruction.
Heck, maybe they slash the dividend to just 5%.
Either way, I think the market might reward XOM with a HIGHER price for their capital stewardship.
If/when oil rebounds in 2021and beyond, they could always raise payout, although perhaps NOT to 100% of their distributable cash flow.
Best
Mike
March 6, 2020 at 11:29 am
Yeah Mike, I agree. All of that indeed.
Thing is, we can’t all be just in gold huh We need some diversification obviously. And by that, I don’t mean silver and platinum, haha.
Energy is hated and beaten up like gold was before and European banks before that, both ending up as good multi-year trades (well, Euro banks fell again but traded up a lot first). AYK, energy is essential to our way of living unless we adopt a prehistoric lifestyle or all get windmills implanted atop our heads. Green energy seems over-owned and has way too high favorable sentiment. But don’t believe me cuz I’m dumb. But some smart people are on it like you.
What if the deflationary shock passes, some inflation emerges (I’ll bet on it), oil prices rise, and they can *increase* dividends whilst the Fed and others are doing freakin Yield Curve Control a al Japan recently and the US post-WW2…. look back at the charts to that era to see how US yield caps turned out. Woo-hoo for dividend-paying oil companies and as you say, anything with a better, rising, reliable yield! To the moon, Alice!
Given the shaky financials everywhere, just keep your shares in certificate format or direct registration with the company, not in the typical brokerage “street name” format (for which they legally own your shares and you’ve only got a creditor’s claim against the broker), and keep the metals in physical form. Y’know, so you don’t lose everything in either a fraud or failure. (In Singapore, everything on settlement day must be put in your name with the CDP, the state’s central depository account segregated from all banks & brokerages… a more expensive process than street name brokerage but much safer).
And real estate? REITS? And anything else *real* that pays yield? IDK. They love real estate in Asia, but the funny thing is that US real estate seems more attractive. Both financially and the build quality too usually, I think. Is why the Asians buy up Hawaii and everything on the West Coast, I guess.
March 6, 2020 at 12:06 pm
Dave
I hear you about gold–you gotta own something else.
But…….Keep an eye on that Gold/SP ratio which has had a YUGE breakout.
The big message (the forest) is that financial assets may have finally met their match with Covid delivering the decisive blow.
60/40 advisors put their 40 into bonds.
With USTs yielding next to nothing and stocks perhaps not priced for the decade (or the next five years) to come, perhaps gold truly does deserve a seat at that
60/40 table
Not suggesting it will ever be the 60 (stocks), nor the 40. But even just a toehold of 3-5% would mean A cool trillion or so flowing to the barbarous relic.
Covid question….Now that Singapore is warming up, Any indication that Covid does not propagate as fast?
Are infections starting to drop off materially yet?
Thanks
Mike
March 8, 2020 at 5:45 pm |
Obviously my comments in this thread re xom have been deprecated by recent events. Oops. But at least our US shale comments are spot on. Will be playing taps for it.
March 10, 2020 at 7:04 pm |
Occidental Pete slashed its dividend from 3.16 to 0.44 on Tuesday afternoon. Its dividend yield fell from 22% to 3%. Company says its B/E is now $30 oil. If oil price supplies shrink over time as some expect, oil prices will strengthen (even more so with the potential inflation coming down the pike from big unfunded fiscal spending coupled with all sorts of supply & supply chain disruptions), so then I imagine the dividend will be increased within 1-3 years?
March 6, 2020 at 10:16 am |
Ditto for OXY which not so long ago was a “bargain” above 38 and today you can get all you want for 27 and change
March 10, 2020 at 7:07 pm |
Oops, I replied to the wrong post. But yeah, yesterday and today OXY was less than half that price. Wow.
March 6, 2020 at 10:37 am |
Yra et al,
How do we reconcile this apparent agreement to let the dollar go like the Titanic, with the fact that several other CB’s eased just as aggressively this week and guided for even more cuts? For example, the BOC and BNM (EM) just eased 50bp versus economists’ consensus expectation of no change!.. and promised more cuts. Can a gentleman’s agreement last if the going gets rough and no gentlemen remain?
In Neil Howe’s “Fourth Turning”, institutions like G7 etc and their “agreements” are swept aside. If so, then we should watch for international cooperation to wane and instead a devaluation race to the bottom to resume. History shows us so (reference the 1930s tariff wars etc – Ray Dalio’s preferred analogy for where we are today). Given the current sorry state of international relations similar to the 1930s (here’s looking at you, Trump), I’ll bet currency wars resume sometime.
Wait for a couple of shitty economic data points from Japan or Europe, whilst they point the finger at today’s good NFP and exclaim, “We’re dyin’ and they’re flyin’; that USD agreement was bogus… Fire the QE torpedoes and release the helicopter money, right now!.. BOOM!
Also, the Fed doesn’t necessarily have the most room to cut, not compared to Canada, EM and arguably even Europe, if Europe can go negative and the Fed cannot (as per Dr Lacy Hunt). Jerome may have to eat crow and admit it WAS indeed QE4, because he can’t taper his Fed “organic growth” B/S nonsense (as clearly he cannot now – not with Repo blowing up in excess of $110B+ most days this week)… and so further, it’s full speed ahead with QE5 just to keep pace with others, as any civilized “cooperation” veers off the fairway into a sandtrap like a Trump drive as his ridiculous hairpiece falls off.
My .02 for today but we’ll see later.
March 6, 2020 at 11:58 am |
David–the move by Canada the following day just met the US after the BOC had held fire for quite a while no they were matching and the impact on the LOONY is because of the downdraft in BCOM.The Canadian actually is in a better spot because they have never embarked on QE—so the cutting of rates is no big deal to me.As for Negara I am not sure and while I used to follow the Bank Negara in the 80s and 90s when it was directed by Phillip Tow and Kamal—I do not see it as significant except that the politics under Mathamar Mohamad are part of its equztion
March 8, 2020 at 5:43 pm
Yra, unfortunately, Dr Mahatir was overthrown in a surprise political coup just over a week ago, a victory for corruption.
Elsewhere, there are weeks where decades happen. So much going on. Mostly not good for the dollar I think, with or without a push from the G7 or CB’s.
March 6, 2020 at 10:49 am |
Interesting interchange as usual. I can see the attraction to the bi-metal play given the potential for an acceleration in disgust with fiat currencies. That said, my suspicion is that central bankers globally are beginning to wonder why their 12 year policy of zero interest rates “isn’t working” to soothe markets during trying times and generate global growth. Now with the wild card of confinement/containment/quarantine of the ‘global supply chain’ adding more weight to the crushing debt loads carried by sovereigns and corporations, (WAY too much of it USD denominated), the next “coordinated action” by central bank wizards will be USD debasement. I understand energy companies are pariahs, and I was there in 1998 with spot prices collapsed to $10 (thank you comrade), so I get the risk of buying XOM even with a 7+% dividend currently. Unless society discovers cold fusion, politician-driven hot air fueled electrical generators, or superconductivity battery storage (above absolute zero), the world will still need ever more energy, and for my remaining lifetime, that will be carbon based, despite the recent fad of ESG and Larry Fink’s threat in this power-grab (pun intended).
So, I’ve added to TIPS and at the risk of upsetting my idol Greta Thunburg, a little more XOM and a coal MLP. I’ll probably be proven wrong in the short term, so traders, fade me to make short term gains.
Sorry for the rant.
March 6, 2020 at 1:17 pm |
Professor–drizzle drazzle drizzle drone time for this turtle to come home
March 6, 2020 at 3:40 pm |
Yra – Where is Mr. Wizard when he’s so needed?
March 6, 2020 at 4:13 pm |
I think it was
Drizzle drazzle druzzle drone
Time for this one to come home
March 8, 2020 at 4:35 pm |
Michael,
Yes, I have 7 full weeks experience with SARS-COV2, as we call it, in Singapore (my tiny work home tho I’m supposedly retired) and nearby in adjacent Malaysia (our primary home on an island beach). I’ve written nothing here before about SARS-COV2 because I’ve no relevant qualifications and this is a financial site.
But I’ve been monitoring SARS-COV2 since Jan 20 as it hit here then, because as a male >70 yo, I’m statistically at high risk of ICU and possibly death if I catch it. Was a bit frightening at first – and dammit I missed some really great trades due to that, lol.
You see, the Singapore area (“Sg”) got hit early. At one point, Sg had the most cases per capita of any country, with cases doubling each week, with two dozen “critical” cases (happy ending: everyone recovered and nobody in Sg has died yet thanks to its unrivalled infrastructure & healthcare).
About whether climate has an impact, I see mixed evidence but I’m no specialist so I don’t know. It seems that hot weather slows transmission but by no means stops or kills it. A new university study from Guangzhou (“Canton”), China now reports the ideal temp for SARS-COV2 is 9 celsius or 48F and it’s sensitive to temperature, suggesting climate has an effect. That’s the good news. Next, the not-so-good news from real-life experience.
Being on the equator, Sg is always hot and humid every day and night year-round with almost no seasonal variation. Weather did NOT prevent SARS-COV2 from taking hold in Sg nor spreading exponentially as it did for weeks, until latter Feb when the caseload growth decelerated. Apparently the strict tracking, containment and quarantines halted the exponential spread of the virus, rather than the always-hot weather. Just empirical observations mind you.
Southern Thailand has a similar climate to Singapore. Likewise, Thailand caught the virus and had it spread despite being hot and humid. But it spread more linearly & continuously in Thailand, rather than exponentially as in Singapore before it slowed. Whether or not hot weather helped reduce the rate of spread in Thailand seems unclear. My favorite source (specified at the bottom) suggests the climate in Thailand might mitigate the spread there but certainly didn’t preclude or stop it. So why might the spread of the virus be somewhat mitigated by hot weather in southern Thailand but not in Singapore? Perhaps because Sg is so heavily air-conditioned (so is HK) to the extent you need a jacket or sweater indoors. Many outdoor spaces in Sg are air-conditioned. Sg even has outdoor parks with air-conditioning and escalators! So the pervasive, strong AC in Sg and HK might exacerbate spreading of the virus?
Malaysia, with the same hot-humid weather year-round as Sg, reported few cases until Feb, but it’s now reporting an exponential increase, despite March being the hottest month of the year. Most cases are in the largest city where AC is ubiquitous and the public crowding & population is almost the same as New York.
All these hot-weather countries continue to report more new cases even now after two months. It’s not yet burning out like SARS did. Worse than SARS. I was never concerned about SARS.
At first there were scientific claims that due to ACE2 receptors, SARS-COV2 was only a risk to Asians and no risk to Caucasians, but soon the empirical evidence in Singapore disproved that racial assertion as Singapore is multiracial and transparently providing to the public full daily reporting online of all SARS-COV2 cases (except personal ID of course). HK, Korea, Taiwan offer daily online case transparency too, as well as testing 10,000+ people per day for weeks without denying anyone that opportunity. IMO you should insist on this too so you know all that’s happening and where, and know your risk; it reduces your fear.
So we saw males catching it twice as often as females, but typically only in identifiable clusters, nobody under twenty, and serious cases mostly over fifty. Serious or critical cases required intense, continuous, topnotch care & attention to enhance hope of survival. This is key because once the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed, then care is no longer available for the needy and mortality rates skyrocket as all serious cases die quickly and even many milder cases die too in the absence of appropriate medical support, as this illness is a super-pneumonia. Not to mention, non-SARS-COV2 patients begin dying too as healthcare broadly collapses under overload. This is the situation for probably hundreds-of-thousands in China, perhaps millions ultimately, and it’s a human tragedy everyone is saddened to see anywhere. Even rich and famous people in Wuhan have died along with their whole families. Whilst China had puut a good system in place for handling SARS, it was overwhelmed and it ended up that this virus isn’t SARS, it’s SARS2 with a higher contagious rate plus asymptomatic transmission unlike SARS or the flu. But no “bioweapon” as 98% survive, especially almost everyone under age 50. And without too much difficulty, SARS-COV2 can be mitigated to 0% fatality, and relatively little contagion and direct economic impact to a society that responds efficiently and effectively, as the Singaporean example has proven (see the links below)… IMO anyone experiencing otherwise should hold their public officials to account, especially in case there comes a more dangerous & deadly Wave 2 next year, nuff said.
IMO the best, must-see source for SARS-COV2 updates and analysis I’ve seen anywhere has been at Peak Prosperity by Dr Chris Martenson, a pathologist and financial commentator. He has been accurate and on top of this contagion for months now. He includes daily video updates at his website (www.peaksprosperity.com) or at his youtube channel “Peak Prosperity”.
So I’d recommend everyone, particularly in the US, to view Dr Martenson’s latest video about SARS-COV2 entitled, “Why the US is in Deep Trouble”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3etuaYTDwFI
His website: https://www.peakprosperity.com/
Stay safe.
March 8, 2020 at 8:39 pm |
David that doc heading up the work in Singapore is supposedly doing a great job—sean vasoo
March 8, 2020 at 6:08 pm |
David
Thank you for your Covid comments.
As for XOM, it shall definitely survive.
But, yes, some pain tomorrow.
10 yr UST yield now down to 50 bp
Bloomberg TV reporting that the only stocks up on Australian market were gold stocks.
I cannot emphasize enough the tremendous value in gold miners right now. Last week, I laid out how operating margins have exploded by 20%, or 2000 bp due to a 10% rise in gold and a plummet in oil of 30%
Well, in the past 2 trading sessions, margins have exploded by another 700 bps!!
Structurally, gold is now in a BULL market vs S&P.
UST 2 yr now down to 30 bp yield, with 10 yr at 49 bp
USTs represents PRIME COLLATERAL and there is now no price banks won’t pay to own such COllateral during the now crashing tsunami of a credit crisis as FRA-OIS blew out to 50 bp on Friday
Italy’s quarantine of Lombardy and its 16MM residents are just more bad news atop the collapse in oil
S&P futures are now locked at limit down and are NOW suspended.
Will post a link to a very sobering analysis of the squeeze in global funding markets as players scramble for the PRISTINE COLLATERAL of USTs, which ties into the record Fed Repos.
Mike
March 8, 2020 at 6:45 pm |
David
Here is the link to the PRIME COLLATERAL thesis of Jeffrey Snider
https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/06/what-is-the-problem/
I think he is spot on. The failure so far of the Fed’s NOTQE Repo operations since September has shown how short of dollars/collateral the market has been for months.
And yet, the algos interpreted the Repos as an easy Fed and, therefore, RISK ON.
Even more worrying, the Repo stress is just as strong/worse this past week AFTER the Emergency 50 BP cut.
In short, the plumbing is broken!!
That is why USTs have a FEAR-driven PANIC bid, especially after the CRASH in oil and the blow out in FRA-OIS spread.
Pierpont Morgan would tell you gold is the ultimate collateral.
He famously said gold was money. All else was credit.
Perhaps true…But under our modern US dominated global financial system, Mr Alexander Hamilton’s enduring creation of sovereign debt to replace the worthless Continentals, backed by the full faith and credit of the country that would go on to build the greatest wealth internationally, still reigns supreme in times of PANIC.
But, methinks the tectonic shift in the gold/S&P is one of the least appreciated developments here in 2020.
Tonight, that ratio is just about 0.60 as gold is retaining value against declining equities as growth is being called into question.
Sometime very soon, a few of the “smartest guys in the room” are going to wake up to how dramatically cheap gold is, especially if you believe Snider’s view that even though FF may stop at the Zero bound, UST yields will go NEGATIvE quite soon, as QE is nigh.
Think about it. 3M T Bill dropped to 30 bp at one point here tonight, a stunning 70 bp through FF. When, not if, Fed moves FF to 50 bp, I think 3M T Bills will stun the world and print with a NEG yield in the secondary market as the market begins the countdown to QE.
I think we could see it before April 1!
Best
Mike
March 9, 2020 at 7:49 am |
$25 oil for 10yrs? Pretty, pretty good. 🙂