Notes From Underground

This week, three G-7 central banks had meetings and all decided to CHECK and leave policy unchanged. This was widely expected as there was little reason to UPSET the incoming Biden administration with any idea of currency manipulation. However, the Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank all discussed the fear of a further slowdown from an increased spread of covid-19.

It is interesting that both the BOC and the ECB mentioned currency valuations but in different contexts. The BOC was not overly concerned as it said, “Global financial markets and commodity prices have reacted positively to improving economic prospects.A broad-based decline in the US exchange rate combined with stronger commodity prices have led to a further appreciation of the Canadian Dollar.” It seems as long as a basket of currencies are RALLYING versus the DOLLAR the BOC is comfortable with a stronger currency, especially with elevated prices for raw materials.

The ECB and President Christine Lagarde seem to have some concerns about a stronger EURO having a NEGATIVE impact on eurozone inflation as a strong currency will prevent the bank from achieving the vaunted 2% inflation target. Lagarde stressed they are “monitoring the exchange rate very carefully” and that “all instruments can be adjusted and nothing is off the table.”

This is NONSENSE because Secretary Yellen has put all central banks on notice that the U.S. will be opposed to any manipulation of exchange rates to secure an advantage in trade. The Biden Administration wants the market to determine exchange rate levels. Lagarde will be reticent to raise the ire of her longtime friend. If U.S. policy is deemed to be looser and irresponsible the U.S. dollar will be driven lower by global investors. The race to the bottom of fiduciary responsibility is the final outcome.

***Two issues to consider: First, the rise in commodity prices over the last six months appears to be not a result of great economic activity but the appearance of Chinese stockpiling. Copper, iron ore, grains, as well as other industrial raw materials have risen as the Chinese YUAN has rallied almost 14% of its lows made May 25. It appears that the Chinese promoted a rally of the YUAN in asymmetrical fashion for a stronger currency is a great benefit to a nation importing massive amounts of raw materials.

In addition, if the Chinese government is pursuing a policy of enhanced domestic consumption a stronger currency enriches its consumers/middle class. A test of this HYPOTHESIS will be when the YUAN reaches the 6.25 level, the low against the DOLLAR made three years ago.

Second, we have to talk about Bitcoin. In the last two weeks there have been statements from Yellen and Lagarde that appear synchronized. In her testimony to the EU last week, Lagarde said the following: “Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset, which has conducted some funny business and some interesting ad totally reprehensible money laundering activity. There has to be regulation. This has to be applied and agreed upon at a global level because it there is an escape,the escape will be used.”

Yellen happened to use very similar language about BITCOIN during her confirmation hearing before the Senate. And just last week the British regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority said “be prepared to lose all your money. There is no guarantee that cryptoassets can be converted back into cash. Converting a cryptoasset back to cash depends on demand and supply existing in the market.”

In a podcast I recorded in October 2016 with Rick Santelli and Anthony Cruedele I was asked about BITCOIN. I maintained that the BLOCKCHAIN element was interesting and needed more consideration but a currency aspect made me nervous BECAUSE SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENTS WOULD PROTECT THEIR CURRENCY MONOPOLY. That is, a sovereign’s duty and obligation. I said I feared that if the U.S. said a terrorist attack was funded by BITCOIN the government would make it illegal for after all the U.S. government made owning gold illegal in 1933-34.

It was YELLEN who suggested Congress curtail the use of BITCOIN amid terrorism concerns. My advice is trade it but be careful making it an investment. I am suggesting to be careful with this asset class even as it soars. Governments hate competition. Article 1, section 8, clause 5 of the U.S. Constitution: “To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin.”

Tags: Bank of Canada, bitcoin, blockchain, Canadian Dollar, Chinese Yuan, Christine Lagarde, Euro, European Central Bank, Janet Yellen, raw commodities, U.S. Dollar

This entry was posted on January 21, 2021 at 8:46 pm and is filed under Central Banks, China, Commodities, Cryptocurrency, Currency. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.