Archive for the ‘Central Banks’ Category

Notes From Underground: Ben Bernanke Channels Karl Marx

June 26, 2017

Set your way back machines to and visit the philosophy of the Young Marx in his famous musings, The Economic and Philosophic Manuscripts of 1844. Read the concerns that Marx raises about the ALIENATION of LABOR. In the book edited by Dirk J.Struik, I am citing pieces from the chapter, “Wages of Labor.”

  1. “Wages are determined through the antagonistic struggle between capitalist and worker.”
  2. “The demand for men necessarily governs the production of men,as of every other commodity. Should supply greatly exceed demand, a section of the workers sinks into beggary or starvation.”
  3. “The worker need not necessarily gain when the capitalist does,but he necessarily loses when the latter loses.”

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Notes From Underground: Pour a Yamizaki, Enjoy 30 Minutes of Harris and Crudele

June 19, 2017

This morning I had the pleasure of sitting with a professional trader and discussing several themes that have coursed through NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND for the past several months, if not years. In staying with the Crudele hit I want to spend some time on offering some views on the significant flattening of the 5/30 curve during the last few weeks. More importantly, the 5/30 curve broke out to new multi-year lows, blowing through the previous low of 100.98. Today we closed at 99.5. The 2/10 curve was very stable and closed at 82.5 basis points holding above last weeks lows. Why is the more SPECULATIVE-oriented curve flattening more than the conventional investment directed curve?

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Notes From Underground: James Gorman Gets Duped, So He Dupes the Nation

June 15, 2017

It seems that Morgan Stanley Chairman/CEO James Gorman was duped by an e-mail hacker. So in measure for measure the Morgan Stanley chief tried to dupe the world with his op-ed in the Financial Times on Wednesday. In an opinion piece titled, “The Last Thing Banks need Is Yet More Rules.” Gorman said in response to the idea of a reinstatement of Glass-Steagall:

“More than  80 years ago, the U.S. enacted the Glass-Steagall legislation that separated traditional commercial banking from investment banking. Over the ensuing seven decades, as global trade and finance expanded,the divide between commercial and investment banking broke down. Recognising that global companies needed full-service banks, the U.S. embraced a system adopted by most other countries, including Germany, Japan, Canada, the U.K. and Australia. Ending Glass-Steagall [the law was repealed in 1999] had nothing to do with the financial crisis, and there is no reason to return to it.”

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Notes From Underground: She Does It Backwards and In Heels

June 14, 2017

Commentators on dance technique always maintain the Ginger Rogers was a better dancer than Fred Astaire for she performed everything he did but “backwards and in heels.” At today’s press conference the financial markets were left with the sense that Chair Yellen wants to rollback the massive balance sheet promulgated by Ben Bernanke. The most “hawkish” piece from the day was when Yellen said it’s not unhealthy to have a gap between the FED and MARKET EXPECTATIONS.

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Notes From Underground: Some Perspective on Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting

June 13, 2017

The FED has painted itself into the proverbial corner by pre-announcing a rate hike. The market will be listening to Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference, which takes place at 1:30 CDT, a half hour after the Fed releases its statement and summary of economic projections. The market is expecting some discussion Fed’s balance sheet unwind, but Yellen will be cautious as she won’t want to cause a large selloff in the Treasuries led by the algo-driven headline readers. Tomorrow morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the CPI data, alongside the Census Bureau’s retail sales data. Market consensus is for tepid numbers on both releases.

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Notes From Underground: Wake Up! Wake Up! For Your Light Has Come

June 11, 2017

This line comes from the Jewish liturgy of welcoming the Sabbath. I use it here to make a note to my readers about a possible signal that the NASDAQ 100 sent on Friday. Now I don’t hold myself out as anything but a third-rate TECHNICIAN (reader of chart formations), but having been taught by one of the greatest technical minds (thanks H.G.), I know to watch certain formations for signals in a POSSIBLE change in sentiment. THE CHART THAT CAUSES CONCERN NASDAQ 100 made ALL TIME HIGHS LAST WEEK BUT CLOSED BELOW THE PREVIOUS WEEK’S LOWS. Do I know when the market will reward a short position?

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Notes From Underground: Is the Yield Curve Taunting the Fed?

June 6, 2017

There were many responses to last night’s post regarding one of my favorite topics: the yield curve. The airwaves have been filled with opinions about the impact of the 2/10 curve on bank stocks and other financial asset valuations. Long-time readers know that I often note the significance of the shape of the curve for hinting at possible investment opportunities. Last year the 2/10 curve FLATTENED (a relative term) to long-term support levels at 74.8 basis points and then steepened out to about 150 basis points as the market feared a Trump inflation scenario.

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Notes From Underground: The Mnuchin Budget — 96 Tears With ? and The Mysterians

May 24, 2017

The rollout of the long-anticipated U.S. Treasury budget brought tears to my eyes. Why? Because it couldn’t help but wonder how supposedly intelligent people could present a politically ridiculous BUDGET and tax plan. The drafters lose the battle when they first present an increase in defense and make it a sacred cow of the Trump White House. You cut many social safety net programs while finding MONEY for questionable foreign entanglements and many unneeded weapons systems. The beauty of the original Bowles-Simpson plan was that all the sacred cows of the budget process were GORED. In my opinion real budget changes and reform must start with reining in the defense sector, but unfortunately too many Congressional districts are the recipients of defense spending and, of course, defense sector jobs. In a GREAT SANTELLI INTERVIEW Wednesday, former Senator Alan Simpson ripped apart the White House budget proposal and noted that it was sprinkled with fairy dust.

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Notes From Underground: Angela Merkel Finally Faces Facts

May 22, 2017

Angie Angie

where will it lead us from here

Oh, Angie don’t you wish

Oh your kisses still taste sweet

I hate that sadness in your eyes, but Angie Angie

Ain’t it time we said goodbye  [Richards and Jagger]
Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel openly admitted that the German trade surplus was large because the ECB‘s monetary policy rendered the EURO to a bout of severe weakness, which helped make “German products cheaper.” It continually amazes me how forthright politicians become once the political storm clouds have lifted. When President Trump noted a similar view he was criticized for trying to force a break-up of the European Union. What was Angie’s angle in challenging the policies of the ECB and Mario Draghi? As I have written for the last six months, the ECB was going to become an issue in the upcoming German national elections. It appears that the Chancellor is getting ahead of the AfD and other challengers about the negative impact of Draghi’s policies that punish and financially repress German savers.

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Notes From Underground: Warren Knocks Out Mnuchin

May 18, 2017

In Thursday’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin took a beating from Senator Elizabeth Warren over the issue of Glass-Steagall. There are many policy issues in which I disagree with Senator Warren but when it comes to Wall Street regulation, she is one of the most knowledgeable people in the Senate and far beyond those walls. During the Great Financial Crisis she appeared regularly on CNBC and Bloomberg television networks. While merely a Harvard law professor, she offered great insights and understood the depths of the problems that caused the crisis. If Jamie Dimon had not blocked her appointment as head of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (a wild conjecture on my part), she would not be a U.S. Senator. After president Obama caved in to Wall Street pressure, Warren ran for the Senate in Massachusetts in 2012, defeating Scott Brown.

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