Archive for the ‘BOE’ Category

Notes From Underground: James Gorman Gets Duped, So He Dupes the Nation

June 15, 2017

It seems that Morgan Stanley Chairman/CEO James Gorman was duped by an e-mail hacker. So in measure for measure the Morgan Stanley chief tried to dupe the world with his op-ed in the Financial Times on Wednesday. In an opinion piece titled, “The Last Thing Banks need Is Yet More Rules.” Gorman said in response to the idea of a reinstatement of Glass-Steagall:

“More than  80 years ago, the U.S. enacted the Glass-Steagall legislation that separated traditional commercial banking from investment banking. Over the ensuing seven decades, as global trade and finance expanded,the divide between commercial and investment banking broke down. Recognising that global companies needed full-service banks, the U.S. embraced a system adopted by most other countries, including Germany, Japan, Canada, the U.K. and Australia. Ending Glass-Steagall [the law was repealed in 1999] had nothing to do with the financial crisis, and there is no reason to return to it.”

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Notes From Underground: Governor Carney Reveals the Full Monty

August 4, 2016

Santelli Exchange: August 4, 2016(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss why a dart board makes a better forecaster than central bankers.)

This is a brief note attached to a spot I did today with CNBC’s Rick Santelli where we discussed the Bank of England’s decision in full. To my great surprise Mark Carney delivered monetary policy on three fronts: 1. Cut the benchmark rate; 2. Began a new round of QE with purchases of 60 billion pounds of Treasury debt with a 10 billion corporate bond buy kicker; and 3. An enhanced Facility Lending Scheme now labeled as Long-Term Funding Scheme (TFS), which is an imitation of the ECB’s TLTRO, which is meant to get the banks lending the additional BOE-provided liquidity. The British domestic banks will incur penalties if they fail to pass the cheap credit into the financial system. My view still stands. The POWER OF THE TFS IS AMPLE STIMULUS AND THE CARNEY-LED MPC SHOULD HAVE HELD THE RATE CUT AND QE IN RESERVE.

The British Pound dropped 1.5% in response to the aggressive BOE action, the Footsie equity index was up almost 2% and the British gilts rallied as the yields on the long-end of the curve dropped 16 basis points. Carney followed his central bankers down the rabbit hole of “got to do something” for there is a supply shock. My criticism is that the BOE governor acted too quickly and should have let markets continued to seek out the real effects of the Brexit vote. Why are central bankers so terrified of the signals that markets provide about the economy? I will focus on the British pound and the GILTS as a weighing mechanism of market sentiment as we move forward. There is still much to digest concerning Brexit and Prime Minister May has shown herself to be flexible in confronting the EU.

***Tomorrow’s unemployment data is expected to reveal nonfarm payrolls of around 175,000 with a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings and a jobless rate of 4.8%. Be patient as revisions to last month’s large increase may impact any strong number. If the number is above 280,000 there will be talk of September’s FOMC meeting being in play for a rate rise but after today’s BOE action the FED will be cautious because if Carney fears a large negative impact or supply shock from Brexit Janet Yellen will be loath to raise rates in the face of global headwinds.

Patience is advised in response to a summer market having to decode a great deal of economic nuance. But the most interesting asset class tomorrow will be the U.S. bonds and its reaction to very strong data. Today the U.S. Treasuries rallied strongly on the BOE action, confirming again that global bond markets are all connected by relative value trades. A large nonfarm payroll will test the durability of relative value and most certainly lead to a flattening of the yield curves.

 

 

Notes From Underground: The Low Yield of Well-Heeled Boys (Trafficking In Central Bank Counterfactuals)

August 3, 2016

Tomorrow the key economic release will be the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. The market is 98% certain there will be at least a 25 basis point rate cut to 0.25%. A majority of analysts also believe that the BOE will increase its asset purchases (QE) from its long, stable level of 375 billion pounds. I DON’T THINK THE BOE IS GOING TO BE AGGRESSIVE AND WILL WAIT TO SEE FURTHER EVIDENCE OF ECONOMIC DATA TO CONFIRM A SOFTENING IN ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY. A rate cut will accomplish NOTHING except a slight drop in the currency. The recent economic data has been soft but after all the vituperative speech and dire predictions after the vote to LEAVE the European Union, the economy was expected to pause until the market could sort out the hyperbole of negativity.

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Notes From Underground: Things That Need To Be Watched

July 14, 2016

As I ponder things in the 118 degree heat, it is time for some reflection and perspective:

a. The Bank of England performed beautifully today and took a breath before cutting rates further and/or increasing the BOE’s balance sheet. Now that Prime Minister MAY‘s cabinet is devoid of the idiot George Osborne, it behooved BOE Governor Carney to wait and see if fiscal policy would be the stimulative tool of choice and preserve the monetary policy for future use. I had advised my employers that Carney would be reticent to act because he is a cautious man and his recent plunge into the political realm in cahoots with George Osborne had sullied his reputation. It seems that Carney wants to remove himself from center stage and allow the new cabinet to have a say in just how to provide any stimulus in response to the dire forecasts from the BREXIT outcome.

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Notes From Underground: When Britain Was Great

April 25, 2016

It was rumored that British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli opined that there are LIES, DAMNED LIES and STATISTICS. Some claim that it was not Disraeli but others who used various phrases similar to this, but regardless the BREXIT debate brings this concept back into everyday nomenclature. The British Treasury and other pro-REMAIN analysts have through the use of STATIC modeling conjecture that if Britain leaves the EU GDP will be significantly lower by 2030. How the statistic gods reach this conclusion is certainly based on the use of static inputs. If Britain were to LEAVE the EU the English would become far more dynamic in their efforts to secure trade around the world. The Obama view on Brexit is laughable for it was only several months ago that the U.S. President and Treasury Secretary Lew were castigating the BRITS for being first movers in joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in direct opposition to the desires of the U.S. It seems that the REMAIN IN block was delighted that President Obama suggested that the Brits would go to the back of the QUEUE in any bilateral trade negotiations if the BREXIT vote succeeded. WHAT RUBBISH.

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Notes From Underground: When I Have Something to Say Sir, I’M GOING TO SAY IT NOW (Phil Ochs)

February 3, 2016

The markets are in turmoil and it gets the mind to thinking: What could possibly have caused today’s reversal in the stock market and the long end of the BOND MARKET? The market seemed like it was on the edge of a complete risk capitulation. The dollar was dropping, bonds all over the world were in rally mode and the precious metals were finally finding some technical strength as the GOLD (in pure dollar terms) had finally rallied through its 200-day moving average. Even the SILVER was able to synchronize with the GOLD and break out of three months of resistance. (The silver 200-day is at 15.13, still a bit above its closing price.) The global stock markets were cascading lower as the Nikkei and German DAX took out their lows made the night of the BOJ’s surprise move to a three-tiered negative interest rate policy.

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Notes From Underground: As the Fires Burn

January 12, 2016

Last night’s blog contained some of the key sparks to watch this year, but I left some for today so as not to overwhelm. While we slept, the Chinese borrowed a page from the French National Bank. In an effort to curb the arbitrage of trading the YUAN in Hong Kong versus the mainland levels under the direct auspices of the PBOC, the Chinese Government raised overnight borrowing rates for those short the yuan in Hong Kong. The rate is only on overnight borrowings so it is intended to make being short against the PBOC cost prohibitive.

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Notes From Underground: Before a Short Hiatus …

December 10, 2015

I will be taking a few days of “unwind” before next Wednesday’s Fed meeting and Chair Yellen press conference. Last Friday, Rick Santelli and I talked about the ECB and I am posting that but the last few Christmas Eves Rick has had me on and we discuss predictions about the coming year. There are no safe predictions from this blogger as I will venture far from shore but always try to put my best thoughts forward.

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Notes From Underground: Shot Fired, British Pound Down

November 5, 2015

Is it the first Friday of a new month already? If so, then it must be time for the release of the U.S. employment data and preparing for a day of market volatility driven by the machines of madness and their algorithmic masters. In preparation for the trading madness, it seems that the consensus is for a nonfarm payrolls increase of 192,000 jobs, a work week of 34.5 hours, and, most important for Chairman Yellen, an increase in average hourly earnings of 0.2%. It appears that a strong number will result in a higher probability of the FED raising rates at the December 15-16 FOMC meeting. It is the problem of dissecting what a STRONG EMPLOYMENT is that makes trading and investing so difficult for the next six weeks. Is it the number of jobs created and the impact on the unemployment rate that renders the most powerful argument for the Fed hawks? Or is it the level of wages relative to GDP and corporate profits that is the most significant indicator of job strength and possible inflation?

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Notes From Underground: Greece, Again? Or Is It Germany Versus France?

July 12, 2015

As discussed ad nauseam, politics is trumping the economics of the Greek drama as the European finance ministers are trying to cut and paste a “bailout” solution that satisfies all parties. In what is being reported as terse discussions taking place in Brussels, the Financial Times reported that German Chancellor Merkel said, “There’s not going to be an agreement at any cost.” This Merkel comment is in direct contravention to Mario Draghi’s famous pledge in July 2012, “Whatever It Take” and no taboos.

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