The tagline of this blog has always been “where 2+2=5 is also a wonderful thing.” If you believe that the world is balanced and rational in all things financial then this BLOG is not for you. Unlike Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s character, I am not a sick man, nor a spiteful man. I use my deep knowledge of political and economic history to analyze financial markets from myriad angles. This allows for a belief that context is supreme. In this context I posit that President Trump’s decision Monday to name China a “currency manipulator” is a way out for the U.S. from the dissension that has arisen within Trump’s team of advisers as reported over the weekend. If Bob Lighthizer was opposed then indeed President Trump is in a more difficult position than previously thought.
Archive for the ‘Canada’ Category
Notes From Underground: Mexico Tariffs Suffer From the Three Ills
June 2, 2019And what might those be, you ask? Ill-conceived. Ill-timed. Ill-advised.
Notes From Underground: Not Such Benign Neglect for the Payrolls Report
December 9, 2018In what appeared to be a “soft” unemployment report, the equity markets discarded the traditional Goldilocks response to weaker data and spent the entire session in sell mode. That sent the S&Ps to a 4.5% LOSS for the week. The BULLS are in trouble for the market rejected what was regarded as POSITIVE news and continued the 11-week long correction. The G-20, “dovish” FED and softer data were cast aside as new negative stories, like the arrest of a significant Chinese business leader and the Mueller investigation closing in on the president. OPEC’s agreed cut in oil production sent crude oil prices moderately higher on Friday, which would have given a boost to the S&Ps as energy stocks would have been bid in past occasions.
Notes From Underground: Bye, Bye Pappy Van Winkle
December 6, 2018At the end of 2017, my readers may recall that I did an unusual thing. I made a prognostication as where the 10-year yield will end the year. I said the 10-year would end the year at 3.41 percent, to which a friend offered up a bottle of Pappy Van Winkle bourbon if the rate reached that level. (The yield was 2.60 percent at the time.) Well, I’m throwing in the towel as it looks like 3.26 percent looks to be the top for the year. I guess I will have to enjoy a lesser-quality libation.
Notes From Underground: The Same Old Song, With a different Beat (Since 2017 Be Gone)
January 4, 2018Notes From Underground: This Is a Vinny Barbarino Market (Or, I Am So Confused)
April 25, 2017The global reaction to the first round of the French presidential election was not confusing. Capital was sitting on the sidelines as the polls reflected a possibility of a second round Le Pen/Melenchon faceoff, which would have been devastating for global investors because fear of an EU break-up would have led to a massive repricing of risk premia. The avoidance of such an outcome led to a rush of capital into European markets, which provided support to Asia and the U.S. The German/French 10-year spread reacted as expected. The yield differential narrowed by a significant 20 basis points. The BUND yields rose against all European sovereign debt as Berlin’s haven status was rendered null and void for at least another two weeks. The GOLD and YEN also performed as expected as money rushed to purchase a risk on profile in a global zero interest environment. The EURO rallied by 2% as global capital flows into European stocks forced previous short euro positions to the sidelines. There’s nothing confusing about any of these outcomes. But let me throw some confusion onto some of the other geopolitical events making the front pages:
Notes From Underground: The Stock Market Says, “I Think Icahn, I Think Icahn”
October 15, 2015One of the great contemporary financiers warned on September 29 that the stock market was “extremely overheated ” and was being “supported by an “unsustainable earnings mirage.” Well, since that video release from Carl Icahn, the SPOOS have rallied more than 7 percent, defying the wisdom of Ichan, as well as many other highly regarded investors. Today’s equity rally was in the face of what has been a continuing onslaught of negative economic releases. The market has rallied off the August 21-24 lows but has paused when confronted with weak data, such as September’s unemployment report. But today the weak economic releases failed to dent the powerful rally: a weak Empire State, a weaker-than-expected Philly Fed Manufacturing report.
Notes From Underground: Dear Mr. Fantasy, Or, a Tribute to Mario Draghi
February 6, 2014The ECB and The Bank of England delivered their interest rate announcements, and, as I expected on Tuesday, the result was absolutely no change to current policy. The FED had paved the way for maintaining the present course and the Europeans were certainly not willing to risk upsetting the markets. What surprised me was the fact that the EURO CURRENCY rallied strongly as President Draghi presided over a press conference in which he put on an act of stonewalling and obfuscation that made Alan Greenspan look like a freshman debater. Wow, Mr. Draghi can evade the best of questions and believe me I listened to the entire press conference and the questions were of a very high caliber. Mr. Draghi did invoke a new strategy and that was lengthening his answers so no one could remember what he had really said in the beginning. The bottom line is this:
Notes From Underground: Hey Bojangles, Whose Inflation Is It Anyway?
January 9, 2014No surprises from the ECB or the BOE in their interest rate decisions today. Yesterday I wrote that President Draghi would deliver a Gene Kelly-like press conference, dancing his way through the questions unscathed. I was wrong. Draghi tapped dance his way through the entire Q&A in Bojangles-like fashion. In far, it was so smooth he didn’t even look like he was dancing. (Combine Draghi and the big noise from New Jersey and it was a complete vaudeville show). President Draghi kept insisting that the ECB‘s mandate was inflation and he reminded his inquisitors that inflation cuts two ways and the ECB would be vigilant on any downturn to inflation, which could result in a deflationary spiral. In regards to the recent report of EU-wide inflation coming in at 0.8%, President Draghi assured that he would keep monetary policy on a continued policy of very low interest rates.
Notes From Underground: The Fed’s Zero Rate, Quantitative Easing Policies Are Stock Market Fundamentals
March 10, 2013The continued parade of stock market analysts who proclaim the equity market is rallying merely on Fed monetary policy instead of market fundamentals have spent far too much time doing case studies and not reading economic history. Interest rates as the variable signaling the cost of money are a very critical element and a key fundamental of the economy and especially the equity markets. U.S. multinational corporations are sitting on record piles of cash and also reporting strong profits. Much of the growth in profits can be attributed to two factors: Very low borrowing costs and continued pressure on wages. The FED has created the low interest rates and has hoped that the profitability resulting from low borrowing costs would bleed into higher wages and thus the need for increased hiring. The problem is many fold on the lack of success in aiding jobs creation. Globalization has kept pressure off wages and the deleveraging of the private balance sheets has meant that downward pressure remains on demand.