Archive for the ‘Germany’ Category

Notes From Underground: Happy Memorial Day, A New Podcast from FRA

May 29, 2017

I am posting a new FRA podcast that was recorded May 24 with Richard Bonugli. We cover many important topics, including the rise of Bitcoin as an investable product. As I have said often, I need to learn more about crypto-currencies and their impact on the global financial system. Unlike Ben Bernanke, I understand GOLD but am seeking to understand BITCOINS. I am striving to learn the workings of the block chain mechanism and relying on the wisdom of one of favorite readers and supporters American Limey.

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Notes From Underground: Angela Merkel Finally Faces Facts

May 22, 2017

Angie Angie

where will it lead us from here

Oh, Angie don’t you wish

Oh your kisses still taste sweet

I hate that sadness in your eyes, but Angie Angie

Ain’t it time we said goodbye  [Richards and Jagger]
Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel openly admitted that the German trade surplus was large because the ECB‘s monetary policy rendered the EURO to a bout of severe weakness, which helped make “German products cheaper.” It continually amazes me how forthright politicians become once the political storm clouds have lifted. When President Trump noted a similar view he was criticized for trying to force a break-up of the European Union. What was Angie’s angle in challenging the policies of the ECB and Mario Draghi? As I have written for the last six months, the ECB was going to become an issue in the upcoming German national elections. It appears that the Chancellor is getting ahead of the AfD and other challengers about the negative impact of Draghi’s policies that punish and financially repress German savers.

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Notes From Underground: Santelli and Harris Down By the Schoolyard

May 9, 2017

This is the most recent CNBC hit with Rick Santelli as we try to educate the world in another three-minute segment. This unrehearsed spot attempts to dig deep into the financial issues confronting traders and investors. The discussion about France is a continuation from the Notes From Underground post I wrote last night. I stress that the period ahead for Emmanuel Macron is going to be difficult, especially if the center-right wins the Parliament and thus the prime minister position. This summer will be fraught with street demonstrations as the Left moves to prevent any installation of German-initiated fiscal austerity and labor market reform. In typical French political fashion, labor and student groups are warning against Macron governing by decree and bypassing Parliament.

(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss French elections.)

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Notes From Underground: Trump Delivers on Using the Dollar as a Policy Tool

April 12, 2017

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the tweeter-in-chief was reported to have said, “The DOLLAR IS GETTING TOO STRONG.” As some pundits discussed, instead of Trump calling China a currency manipulator it seems he wants to use the dollar as a cudgel to pressure others into not embarking on policies to weaken their currencies. As I wrote on April 2:

“The Trump Administration’s efforts to curb the U.S. trade deficit may see the executive branch try to depreciate the U.S. dollar if Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary Ross fail to persuade certain global actors to embark upon policies to adjust their current account and trade surpluses. The Fed’s recent tightening has not rallied the dollar–it actually closed lower on the quarter–so if the political status quo is sustained in Europe and no new political crisis emerges, the DOLLAR will become a barometer of Trump’s policies on trade.”

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Notes From Underground: FRA Podcast Replay (January 29)

March 19, 2017

It has been a month since I last wrote. My hiatus was inadvertently extended as Ecclesiastes certainly entered my personal life. My sister Joyce suddenly passed away, which caused me to slow my mind and reflect on many things. Losing your baby sister will  cause one to ponder, or as it was said in Cool Hand Luke: “When a man’s mother dies and he gets to thinking rabbit and running, a night in the box.” So I have put myself in a mental box. However, I have also experienced the birth of my second grandson, thus to every season a time and purpose.

During the seven-plus years I have been writing Notes From Underground I have shared many life-changing moments with my extended family of readers. So it is with a renewed spirit and laser focus thoughts that I embark on analyzing the global-macro world in search of profitable trades and investments. The FRA podcast I posted January 29 (click the highlighted text) is a renewal of this year’s focus on crafting the NOTES narrative. There has been much in the way of global political events during my hiatus but I will refer to some as significant in various aspects as we proceed.

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Notes From Underground: Will Trump Hustle Abe and Ask for 10 Shots?

February 9, 2017

The main story for the next two days will be Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s visit to the U.S. to meet with President Trump. Abe is coming to mend relations after Trump officially ended the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement before Congress could even debate the trade treaty. The Japanese prime minister had expended a great deal of political capital in Japan to get various parties to accept a massive Pacific-based trade agreement. In an effort to forestall any discussion of Japan as a currency manipulator, the Japanese are offering all sorts of investment ideas in the context of getting Trump the negotiator to soften his stance on tariffs for Japanese goods, or sourced material from Asia for assembly in the U.S. Japan is a paramount promoter of the global supply chain paradigm.

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Notes From Underground: Things That Go Trump In the Night

February 8, 2017

Please Donald, will the POTUS STFU, PLEASE. This is not a political statement. It is free advice because the more you communicate the less impact you will have. You may be trying to use the bully pulpit to jawbone the DOLLAR lower but every tweet diminishes your influence. Peter Navarro tried to create a weaker dollar but you have lessened the impact of his misinformed missives. Historically, jawboning has had a short-term market effect, but your late-night 140 character references are losing the power to persuade. You must learn that words are like your campaign sexual references, less is more. SO PLEASE, STFU.

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Notes From Underground: Today, It Was Europe (Or, a Preview of Things to Come)

February 6, 2017

Notes From Underground has been concerned that 2017 would be the year of Europe as the ECB’s  quantitative easing policy and NEGATIVE interest rates would be an issue for many of the elections taking place this year. The Dutch, French and Germans will hold parliamentary elections. Those following the mass media will be focusing on immigration while NFU will continually seek to underline the importance of the repressive financial policies of the ECB. It is this narrative we will use to take the pulse of potential upheavals to the status quo. There is no doubt that the opposition to President Draghi is growing. In a threat to the Empress of Europe, Angela Merkel, received news that her coalition partner, SPD, has overtaken her party in the polls.

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Notes From Underground: The World Is Digesting Trump and About Europe Grow

January 22, 2017

The inauguration is over. Davos is behind us. Let’s start examining the impact of policy and politics as we move forward. The first three weeks has brought stasis for equity markets as the S&Ps have not set new highs since the December exuberance. Investors are beginning to comprehend that the slow-moving legislative process will impede Trump’s efforts for an expedited deregulation and tax reform program. But, if you follow the proliferation of stories about a possible dissolution of the EU, my prediction with Rick Santelli about Europe being the main focus of 2017 is coming to fruition. One wonders what was discussed in the backrooms of Davos that led so many global executives to suddenly express concerns about the increased populism in the Netherlands, France and even Germany. It seems that the Dutch elections have gained a prominent position as a severe test for Brussels-based eurocrats.

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Notes From Underground: First Friday Of The New Month, You Must Be ‘Jobbing’ Me

January 5, 2017

I’m still nursing a New Year’s hangover. It takes a long time for the mind to rid itself of all the news the mainstream media deems fit to read. But as the third rock keeps spinning, markets will keep moving and we will strive to untangle the ball of confusion. After today’s tepid ADP data the market has settled into a consensus for 175,000 nonfarm payrolls. Again, I would love to see a number greater than 250,000 just to test the recent market action. BONDS rallied, currencies rallied against the DOLLAR, precious metals are showing early year strength and commodities have held support levels in the age of TRUMFLATIONARY EXPANSIONARY EXPECTATIONS.

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