Archive for the ‘Ireland’ Category

Notes From Underground: The Most Dangerous Word to Eurocrats is REFERENDUM

February 28, 2012

Tomorrow is LTRO DAY in Europe as the ECB will reveal the size of its next tranche of 3-year loans made available at the BALANCE SHEET RECESSION rate of 1%. Several rumors tried to upset the market today as “insider gnomes” floated one story after another¬† that the size of the LTRO would be 280 BILLION EUROS, which is at the low-end of current GUESSTIMATES. Each time the equity markets broke on the rumors, they snapped immediately back as the global financial system is floating on an ocean of liquidity. Higher OIL? NO PROBLEM, MAN! SOVEREIGN SOLVENCY ISSUES? NO PROBLEM!

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Notes From Underground: Lies, Damned Lies and SADISTICS

June 27, 2011

The news out of Europe continues to create volatility as EUROCRATS vacillate between defaults and bailouts. It seems that the Greeks will vote on a “new and improved” austerity package that, if accepted, will allow the EMU,IMF and ECB to provide the needed funds to get Greece through the immediate crisis.

Lies compounded by lies has made the situation much more difficult to comprehend. The problem is one of insolvency but because of the opaqueness of the entire EU, it is very difficult to ascertain who is in fact insolvent. Even though the European Union ran bank stress tests, very little is known about which banks will be insolvent in the event of a sovereign default. The biggest fear is that a Greek default will become contagious to the other peripheries and several of the large banks in France and Germany.

Another lie is that the EUROCRATS do not want the “EMPTY CREDITORS” [read speculators] to be paid out on a default so the Orwellian nature of Brussels is trying to manufacture a default by any other name. Today, the French government persuaded the large French banks to accept a type of BRADY BOND solution, which would extend the maturities of Greek debt in order to buy time for the credit hit to be spread out over time–deemed by the politicians to be a non-default. However, the ratings agencies have opined that any extension of duration would result in a DEFAULT.

The battle lines are being drawn between the nation-states and rating agencies. Interestingly, Frankfurt was looking into certifying a new European ratings group so the pressure will continue to build against S&P, Fitch and Moody’s. All the talk out of Brussels is totally devoid of the impact of domestic politics. It is the Greek Parliament who now holds Europe’s immediate financial fate in the raised hands of 151 Greek members of Parliament.

Democracy is still the prevailing means of political decision making and if the Greek politicos listen to the voices of dissent in Greece, the Parliament may well vote NO just to get Europe to raise the ante–sounds similar to the rejection of the first TARP vote in the U.S. HOUSE. The Greek nation has more to gain by pushing the DEFAULT game a bit further to maybe get some modicum of relief from the coming ravages of austerity.

The NEGATIVE FEDBACK LOOP that is perpetuated by an austere budget in a declining economy with no ability to devalue its currency may be too sadistic for a Greek populace staring into the abyss of financial contagion. Sadists of economic rectitude and the lies they promote have placed an already fragile global financial system into a very precarious predicament. Oh well, WEN will we have some certainty?!?!

For a quick update on the impact of austerity budgets:

Portugal 2/10: -260 basis points
Ireland 2/10: -135 basis points
Greece 2/10: -1114 basis points

These are the inverted curves of economies attempting to ring out the excesses of inflation. Unfortunately, economies in question do not have the problem of excess inflation but rather excess debt, which would normally call for negative real rates of return an steep curves.

As Brussels has dithered and deceived, the markets have exacted a price,a very high price. Where it all ends it is impossible to know but Athens will be the first test of the people versus the political elite of Brussels. Will Sisyphus roll the rock further or will the Greeks call the existential question for the EU???

Notes From Underground: Canada’s government is a fallen angel while Merkel’s CDU suffers a severe setback

March 27, 2011

The weekend news was not economic but political as governments all over the globe suffered major setbacks. The Liberals secured a “NO CONFIDENCE” vote in the Canadian Parliament and bring down the Harper Government. I know that Michael Ignatieff will claim that he is perserving the democratic basis of Canada as the ruling party was brought down on an issue of CONTEMPT. The only thing that appears contemptuous is the ego of Ignatieff. He claims that the TORIES are out of touch and out of control. The election is called for May 2 and then the electors will have the final say on who is out of touch. This will be the fourth general election in seven years and let’s hope the citizens of Canada show their anger and elect an outright majority so Canada can get on governing itself.

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Notes From Underground: The Irish “AYES” lead to “NOES” for FIANNA FAIL

March 1, 2011

The elections in Ireland went as expected but not as some hoped. A coalition will have to be formed as the FINE GAEL failed to win an outright majority. It appears as if FINE GAEL will have to coalesce with the Labor Party. What remains to be determined will be the effort to renegotiate the borrowing rates previously established with the European Fianancial Stability Facility (EFSF). Fianna Fail was so badly trounced from its economic policies and its bending to the desires of the large European Banks.

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Notes From Underground: Irish Elections, Bahrain and the U.S. DOLLAR fails to RALLY

February 24, 2011

All eyes have been focused on the MIDDLE EAST for its huge impact on OIL prices. There is a debate between those who believe that the OIL supply disruption is inflationary as energy prices create a rising price environment and those who believe that high energy prices are a tremendous drag on economic growth. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND is in the camp that OIL supply disruptions are a drag on growth, especially in an environment of high unemployment and a severely stretched consumer. It is this fear that has roiled the stock market in the U.S. and put stress upon the global financial system. Emerging markets that are already feeling the impact of higher food costs will now have to deal with higher energy prices, which many governments already subsidize for its citizens. Will the situation in Bahrain be as economic disastrous as some analysts and pundits are claiming?

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Notes From Underground: The Irish Government loses power as the GREENS pull the plug

January 23, 2011

The weekend brought some political news from the EU. Brian Cowen gave up his leadership of the Fianna Fail Party but vowed to stay on as prime minister. However, the GREEN PARTY, who is the junior partner in the coalition, balked at the uncertainty caused by PM Cowen and pulled their support, which would force the dissolution of Parliament after this week’s vote on important budgetary matters. It is not as significant as it could be for elections were scheduled for March and the ruling party has been expected to suffer a total defeat. The most important outcome is that some of the leadership challenging Cowen within Fianna Fail will lose some precious time to secure their support within the party.

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Notes From Underground: The Irish have another package worth 85 billion euros (and the NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP CONTINUES)

November 28, 2010

Another weekend and another emergency meeting in Europe as the EU attempts to stem potential DEFAULT in the PIIGS. The language that emanates from these meetings is difficult to analyze because it is so convoluted. The eurocrats make decisions and then the markets attack the intended recipients and drive the yields on sovereign BONDS higher, which prompts another meeting. This has been going on for a year as the markets have gained the ascendency over the politics. Frau Merkel has repeatedly said that politics must gain the upper hand but for now that is only rhetoric.

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Happy Thanksgiving FROM NOTES : WE ARE GRATEFUL FOR OUR READERS AND THEIR THOUGHTS

November 23, 2010

The markets were riddled with all sorts of political news today as North Korea felt neglected and found a way to move center stage. The North Koreans like to have the spotlight shine on them when they need something from the world. I figure they must need food and heating oil for the winter so they upped the tension on the PENINSULA by lobbing some artillery shells into a South Korean military exercise. It is sad that SOUTH KOREANS had to die while Pyonyang played their typical games. A boycott of the North cannot work as the corrupt dictatorship just raises the temperature on hostilities until the world provides them with what they want and need.¬†It is time to start bringing the U.S. troops home. Let the Chinese and Koreas resolve the problems that result from the arrested development of the North Koreans. Let the South Koreans be under the U.S. NUCLEAR UMBRELLA and start cutting back on U.S. global overreach. Oh by the way, don’t forget the bread and the heating oil so the North can get on with its goal of sucking the life out of its “citizens.”

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Notes From Underground: All is well in Ireland as the debt crisis has been resolved–and no corporate tax increase

November 21, 2010

It has been a very slow news weekend. There were no major events, and, if you can believe it, the EU and IMF have agreed to a support package for the Irish banks and other institutions that are under stress. Nobody can really be shocked by this as the readers of NOTES have been prepped as to this outcome. The Irish polity at this point did not have to surrender its sovereignty as it doesn’t have to raise its corporate tax, at least not yet. Markets are responding positively as the S&Ps, EURO and COMMODITIES are all higher as the all-clear signal is given.

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