Archive for the ‘Mexico’ Category
June 27, 2019
We at Notes From Underground are keeping it short tonight, but including a link to a podcast I recorded with the White Wave Trading. I sit down with the group one or twice a week in order to analyze potential trading opportunities. Thursday’s discussion revolved around potential outcomes from this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan.
The major theme is President Trump and Premier Xi Jinping coming to a decision on the Chinese agricultural tariffs on American exports. Also, another issue to be raised next week: Why Mexican President Obrador decided to pass on the G-20 meeting given that there’s so much positive potential for Mexico at this meeting. Enjoy!
Click here to watch and/or listen to the podcast
Tags:AMLO, China, G-20, Mexico, tariffs, trade
Posted in G-20, Mexico, trade, United States | 10 Comments »
June 2, 2019
And what might those be, you ask? Ill-conceived. Ill-timed. Ill-advised.
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Tags:Canada, China, Europe, Mexico, NAFTA, Robert Lighthizer, trade, U.S., USMCA
Posted in Canada, Mexico, trade, United States | 8 Comments »
April 1, 2018
On March 26, me and Rick Santelli Rick Santelli discussed a few key issues on CNBC (the video is posted below). The final week of the first quarter saw the continuation of increased volatility as the market tried to sort through myriad issues. The influence of budget deficits, peace talks with North Korea, trade issues in the U.S. all creating a sense of uncertainty as global investors are forced to calibrate present positions in regards to regards to potential risk. Chinese growth is meeting expectations even as the XI regime is determined to clamp down on increased debt. The copper market tested the 200-day moving average early in the week but managed to close above it at week’s (even as the metal had a weak quarter).
(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss global trade.)
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Tags:China, KSU, Mexican peso, NAFTA, U.S. Dollar, yield curves, Yuan
Posted in China, CNBC, Currency, Mexico, United States | 8 Comments »
December 26, 2017
In the famous Gene Wilder movie, “Quackser Fortune and His Cousin In the Bronx,” Wilder plays a character who picks up horse manure in the street and sells it for its rich nutrients. As horses are outlawed in the Dublin streets Quackser finds himself an unemployed manure sweeper, a negative outcome from Schumpeterian creative destruction. However, it seems Quackser resurrected his business and is now packaging horse excrement as an item of political discourse. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was the recipient of the newest symbol of public disdain for the recent tax “reform.”
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Tags:infrastructure, Mexican peso, NAFTA, tax reform
Posted in Currency, Mexico, United States | 13 Comments »
January 29, 2017
Tonight I am posting the latest episode from the Financial Repression Authority (click on the blue link to listen). I do these for no remuneration as I think the information flowing out of this group creates great conversation and can generate some very profitable investment opportunities. Yes, it’s 34 minutes long but it is more LEARNATIVE than the network news. So pour a stiff whisky and listen while doing other reading. I share this with, you readers because I am honored to be a part of this great dialectical process. One of the key points in tonight’s post is the development of a narrative in which to analyze the world of Trump. It is not a partisan narrative but one I am developing as I attempt to discern the unfolding global dialogue being put forward by Team Trump.
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Tags:BOJ, Chinese Yuan, Mexican peso, NAFTA, Pax Americana, President Trump, QE, S&P
Posted in Currency, Japan, Mexico, United States | 13 Comments »
November 12, 2013
The fools are alive with the sound of tapering. There’s a constant drone of the CNBC crowd that the fear of Fed tapering has sent emerging markets to nine straight days of losses. While the emerging markets have been responding negatively to tapering, the developed markets have been making new highs. So it seems that the FED removing liquidity will be far more detrimental to the emerging markets than to the developed world’s equity markets. A quick snapshot of the tales of two markets reveals the divergence taking place in the global financial markets. The Mexican ETF EWW is down 12% on the year while the S&Ps are up 27%. Yet, the Mexican economy is heavy dependent on the U.S. market for a large percentage of its exports. If the U.S. consumer is healthy enough to help the U.S. equities to a solid gain on corporate profits, how can the Mexican financial markets be so negatively divergent? It is not only the issue of economic growth but also the health of the overall financial system.
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Tags:Angela Merkel, CSU, debt-to-GDP ratios, emerging markets, European Union, Fed, Germany, Mexican ETF, SPD, SPS
Posted in Currency, Equity, Fed, Germany, Mexico | 8 Comments »
August 13, 2013
The Nikkei index rallied strongly overnight as the Abe Administration floated the idea of possibly cutting Japanese corporate taxes if the consumption tax increases is instituted. The ABE Government is fearful of negatively impacting the economy so continue to be alert to any “tapering of taxation” to keep the present economic growth story on its path. Tonight I am posting Tobias Harris’s post on the view of the consumption tax from Japanese sources. It is a rebuttal to my piece of last week. (more…)
Tags:Abe, Japan, Mexico, Nieto, Peso
Posted in Japan, Mexico | 2 Comments »
July 16, 2013
The financial world waits for Ben Bernanke’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. (The written speech will be made available at 7:30 a.m. CST, 90 minutes prior to the start of testimony.) This is a new policy so as to preempt any leakage by the notorious inside trading group that resides within the bowels of a non-regulated legislature. (Of course, high frequency trading groups will have it two seconds earlier. What are campaign contributions for?) The prepared text will be plain vanilla and any possible market moving news will come during the Q&A. It would be a great surprise if Chairman Bernanke reveals any new wrinkles on FED policy for another bout of veering from the FOMC minutes would begin to undermine the FED‘s credibility.
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Tags:Ben Bernanke, democrats, EU auto sales, Fed, FOMC, Hilsenrath, Mexico, Nieto, Obama administration, PEMEX, QE, U.S. Dollar, Yen
Posted in Currency, Fed, Mexico, United States | 3 Comments »
June 25, 2013
“If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you”
The opening stanza of Kipling’s poem about British stoutness is not to say others are blaming but rather an admonition from Notes From Underground about keeping your wits about you and trying to make quality decisions in trying times. In a financial world that is steeped in excess leverage, nanoseconds and algorithmic trading programs ,being a fundamental/technical trader seeking relative value becomes a daunting task. I am not one who favors catching “falling pianos” and have been more content to let trades come to make rather than force the action. As the markets unwind leveraged trades that causes massive selling across all asset classes.
Tags:Bernanke, China, ECB, Fed, Mario Draghi, Mexican peso, OMT, PEMEX, peso/yuan, QE, U.S. Treasury Market
Posted in Currency, ECB, Emerging Markets, Fed, Mexico | 8 Comments »
March 11, 2013
Today was a very slow news day and thus little news to slow the steady rise of equities and the sell off in other asset classes. There was a story in the Financial Times about the Brazilian government cutting the tax on ethanol producers. The government is going to cut the tax on sugar-based ethanol producers by 80%–from 120 REALS per cubic meter to 25 REALS. It is an effort “… to support ethanol producers, many of whom are facing bankruptcy because of heavy debts and DIFFICULTIES COMPETING WITH SUBSIDISED PETROL PRICES IN BRAZIL.” There has been a global sugar surplus, which has kept pressure on sugar prices, but this move may help lift sugar prices and allow Brazilian growers to grab some of the agricultural profits that have supported the Brazilian economy. The U.S. economy is a corn-based ethanol producer and this has helped put upward pressure on global grain prices which has benefited Brazil’s farmers.
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Tags:BOJ, Brazil, Carlos Slim, Enrique Nieto, ethanol, Japan, Kuroda, Mexico, U.S. 2/10 Yield Curve
Posted in BoJ, Brazil, Debt Market, Ethanol, Japan, Mexico, Sugar | 5 Comments »