On Tuesday, I sat down with the Financial Repression Authority’s Richard Bonugli and Marc Faber. The last time Dr. Faber and I spoke, there were several profitable investments that evolved from our deep discussion about the global political economy. Give it a listen as we discuss the global central banks and potential profitable areas of investment. Marc has fabulous insights on the global economy and NOTHING is out of bounds. This is a man who finds great opportunities during times of chaos.
Archive for the ‘data’ Category
Notes From Underground: This Isn’t the Barron’s Roundtable
February 10, 2022Notes From Underground: Quick Note on Friday’s Jobs Report
April 4, 2019On Friday we have U.S. and Canadian employment. The Canadian report is important because Canada is an important trading partner of the U.S. so any slowing in Canadian employment may reflect of slowing cross-border trade. The consensus is for Canada to have a DECLINE of 10,000 jobs with the unemployment rate holding at 5.8 percent. From a global perspective, Canada is a good look at the continuing narrative about slowing global economy, which is significant as the New Zealand, Australian, European and Japanese central banks have used the slowing global economy as the reason for maintaining their current accommodative monetary policies. The Canadian dollar has been weak versus many of the key currencies so weak jobs should put more pressure on the Canadian dollar.
Notes From Underground: Weather Disrupts. Will It Disrupt Financial Flows?
October 4, 2018Based on the recent ADP report and other economic data, logic would dictate that Friday’s jobs report OUGHT to be very strong. If the data is weaker than expected, analysts will look to the impact from Hurricane Florence, ” the storm the authorities came to blame.” There are projections that jobs will be diminished by upwards of 50,000 so the initial algo traders will be thwarted. As usual, the critical component of the jobs number will again be the average hourly earnings (AHE), which are expected to rise 0.3% following August’s increase of 0.4%. If this number were to print 0.5% expect bond futures to come under pressure, even on top of violent increase in yields we have experienced this week.
Notes From Underground: Quick Note on the BOE and Friday’s Jobs Report
November 2, 2017Today, the BOE raised interest rates (as expected). But the market deemed it to be dovish and the EUR/GBP rallied 2 percent as the British pound tumbled and the euro strengthened versus the pound and dollar. On Wednesday I cautioned that the EUR/GBP failed to hold below its 200-day moving average and this provided a good technical level. As expected, the FOOTSIE index rallied more than 1 percent as investors appreciated a weaker POUND as beneficial to British corporations regardless of Brexit. The initial release of the statement revealed a 7-2 vote, which on first read was not the expected 6-3 vote so could have been a bit hawkish. But the eight paragraph statement clarified the soft-side of Governor Carney:
Notes From Underground: A Guide For The Perplexed? (Maimonides)
June 4, 2017Friday’s unemployment data showed the addition of 138,000 jobs, weaker than the ADP report. Even though the RATE dropped to 4.3% the all-important average hourly earnings rose by a tepid 0.2% and April’s data was lowered by a tenth of a percentage point. Many readers e-mailed me as to why the S&Ps and NASDAQ continued to rally in the face of weak economic news from the U.S. The BOND rally made sense as investors continued to cover short positions, but what is perplexing is the continued strength in the precious metals and the currencies despite a strong U.S. equity market.
Notes From Underground: The World of 2+2=5 Is Back In Full Swing
October 30, 2016The mid-day, market-moving announcement from FBI Director Comey resulted in the selloff of the DOLLAR, EQUITIES and RALLIES IN PRECIOUS METALS just after the market had enjoyed the better-than-expected first look at the third quarter GDP. I will try to make sense of both releases from a market stand point and in an APOLITICAL format.
Notes From Underground: Unemployment Report Spot-On and Meaningless; Draghi Doesn’t Disappoint
December 6, 2015The U.S. jobs report was in line with market expectations colored by the Wednesday release of the ADP data. The market’s response was interesting in that BONDS, STOCKS AND THE DOLLAR reversed some of the reaction to ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference on Thursday. While the jobs report seemed to SOLIDIFY an FOMC rate hike next week, the settlements on Friday raises questions about the Fed’s current strategy. Even though a rate increase is a “certainty” and with the ECB promising more liquidity at lower interest rates, the settlement prices at the week’s end were perplexing:
Notes From Underground: Shot Fired, British Pound Down
November 5, 2015Is it the first Friday of a new month already? If so, then it must be time for the release of the U.S. employment data and preparing for a day of market volatility driven by the machines of madness and their algorithmic masters. In preparation for the trading madness, it seems that the consensus is for a nonfarm payrolls increase of 192,000 jobs, a work week of 34.5 hours, and, most important for Chairman Yellen, an increase in average hourly earnings of 0.2%. It appears that a strong number will result in a higher probability of the FED raising rates at the December 15-16 FOMC meeting. It is the problem of dissecting what a STRONG EMPLOYMENT is that makes trading and investing so difficult for the next six weeks. Is it the number of jobs created and the impact on the unemployment rate that renders the most powerful argument for the Fed hawks? Or is it the level of wages relative to GDP and corporate profits that is the most significant indicator of job strength and possible inflation?