Archive for the ‘Currency’ Category

Notes From Underground: Trump Moves Markets Without Moving His Fingers

August 21, 2018

The noise just keep on coming and each are disrupting the markets in its own way and the president. Monday’s headlines from the financial press had large impacts on GOLD, COPPER, EQUITIES, and, of course, CURRENCY markets. Let’s look at the substance of the comments.

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Notes From Underground: Depending On the Outcome of Rational Actors?

August 19, 2018

So much of social science is dependent on various actors making rational decisions. Economics has regularly proven that “actors” certainly fail to act rationally as manias, crashes and panics in repeated form are proof (see Charles Kindleberger). In the realm of politics, the dependence on nation-states to behave rationally has led to many major policy errors. During the Cold War the balance of nuclear weapons prompted both super powers to remain reticent to embark on direct confrontations and avoid an unthinkable shooting war. The fear of world destruction also meant that the USSR and UNITED STATES would leash their “allies” to prevent any direct conflict between the two major hegemonists.

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Notes From Underground: Will He Or Won’t He? (Only His Son-In-Law Knows)

August 14, 2018

On Monday, Rick Santelli and I unpacked a great deal in the few minutes we were allotted on CNBC. The Turkish story remains a key to the global financial markets. The U.S. equity markets interpreted that as all-clear, and the narrative of a dynamic U.S. growth story sustains itself.

(Click on the image to watch me and Rick talk Turkey.)

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Notes From Underground: Areas of Global Macro Concern

July 24, 2018

President Donald Trump’s continuous tweeting creates volatility in the markets but the impact lessens as participants become hardened to the vagaries of the tweets. An area that does concern me, though, is the amount of insider trading I suspect is taking place.

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Notes From Underground: Another FRA Podcast

May 20, 2018

On May 16, Peter Boockvar and I had a conversation about how we need to pay attention to geopolitical events, as well as the overhanging debt crisis that’s beginning to disrupt the complacent markets. Enjoy.

Notes From Underground: Don’t Cry for Me Argentina

May 6, 2018

It is far too early in the situation circling the emerging market debt to make a prognosis. The financial media is filled with stories about the rising U.S. dollar coupled with a FEDERAL RESERVE that is rising short-term rates while simultaneously enacting quantitative tightening (QT). This is certainly having an effect upon global liquidity but at this point I would caution about the CONTAGION and fallout from this process, especially as the ECB and BOJ still are adding liquidity while standing ready to increase their QE if economic growth begins to falter. My phone and internet haven been inundated with questions about the Argentinian central bank raising short term rates to 40 percent. The Argentinians are in the middle of a reform process that is causing major disruptions in their economy, in addition to a severe drought that is having a major impact on the economy, especially for one relying on the agricultural sector.

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Notes From Underground: Another FRA Podcast

May 1, 2018

While waiting for the FOMC‘s rate decision on Wednesday, I am posting a new PODCAST in which I discuss the global macro situation with a woman who whose work I had not been familiar. Nomi Prins has written a new book called Collusion, in which she investigates the role of central banks in its current predicament. I thoroughly enjoyed the 51-minute podcast as Richard Bonugli does a fine job of allowing the guests to discuss in deep detail. I will certainly be buying the book (it was released Tuesday) as it explains in detail what the central banks have accomplished in destroying the signalling mechanisms of capitalism and markets. The Financial Repression Authority has been an important platform for allowing deep discussion on matters of global investment concerns. Enjoy the discussion as I await my readers feedback on the issues we covered and hope it will lead to profitable trade opportunities.

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Notes From Underground: Is April The Cruelest Month?

April 29, 2018

As T.S. Eliot warned in The Wasteland, April is the cruelest month, as the thaw of winter gives way to hope as the world returns to rejuvenation. April has delivered the first quarter corporate results and it is no exaggeration to state that revenue and earnings have exceeded expectations. However, the equity market results have failed to respond to the robust numbers as the SPOOS have gained a mere 1.25% and remain unchanged on the year. The NASDAQ 100  has been a much better performer as the TECH sector continues to cruise.

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Notes From Underground: Riding High in April

April 25, 2018

In building on the discussions in Tuesday’s POST it is important to note that the debt discussion that has taken place in Notes From Underground is gaining traction as an important piece of the financial narrative. The failure of the SPOOS, NASDAQ, and DOW to gain traction with the robust earning releases is forcing the perplexed to confront the impact and collateral damage from Ben Bernanke’s Portfolio Balance Channel, also known as QE or large-scale asset purchases.

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Notes From Underground: Flattening Curves — All Action and No Talk

April 11, 2018

In the political realm, the concern about tariffs has been lessened as Chinese President Xi took the high road with some silky conversation. It is not in the Chinese interest to raise the level of shouting/tweeting, nor to allow the YUAN to depreciate. The last blog post weighed the harm China would do to itself if the YUAN were to depreciate for it would then have to face the acrimony of many nations it is trying to placate. From a TECHNICAL perspective, it appears that the YUAN is going to test three-year lows between 6.11/6.20 to the dollar. As the Chinese tensions eased, the world now turns its eyes to Syria.

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