Dr. Marc Faber and I had a 65-minute discussion with Richard Bonugli and the Financial Repression Authority. It was about eight months ago since we last discussed the global macro world and while it does not have the pizzaz of CNBC, those who listen to the discourse in 2020 would’ve been rewarded as many of the issues we discussed proved to be highly profitable investments. The themes remain similar although the rapid rise in mining and ag stocks have me leaning on the cautious side even as ADM, BG, FCX, Glencore and certainly KSU power forward to new highs.
Archive for the ‘Equity’ Category
Notes From Underground: Friday’s Wall Street Rally?
May 31, 2020Friday’s Wall Street rally into the close of month end was the ultimate statement of the FED listens. Yes, only to the needs of the financial world as ULTRA CHEAP MONEY pushes equity prices ever higher in the search for yield beyond 50 basis points. The BONDS remain bid as short sellers live in fear of central bank intervention. When the 10- and 30-year yields begin to rise the FED speakers discuss the increased possibility of YIELD CURVE CONTROL, or YCC, making it difficult for any type of signaling mechanism to develop.
Notes From Underground: Euthanize the Rentiers
December 22, 2019As we head into the global macro uncertainty of 2020, equity markets continue to elevate due to central bank liquidity additions. One year ago, U.S. equities suffered large losses, which some attributed to the FED firing its DOUBLE SHOTGUN of interest rate increases with QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING (Druckenmiller/Boockvar).
Notes From Underground: Same Old Song With a Different Beat
December 1, 2019There are few questions about the one-dimensional nature of the driving force of markets around the world. Cheap money sustains equity markets as the vast amounts of central bank liquidity continues to provide support for low-cost borrowing and a lack of alternatives for investors. A subset of the cheap cost of capital has been the “hoped” for resolution to the China/U.S. trade conflict which without question has disrupted global trade. South Korea’s recent economic performance is a reflection of the impact suffered by key components of the global supply chain driven export-oriented economy.
Notes From Underground: Podcast? Yes, Podcast
November 20, 2018It was a pleasure to spend time with Peter Boockvar, David Rosenberg and Richard Bonugli as we prepared a Thanksgiving feast for the global macro world. We cover many relevant areas and provide measured analysis of important financial concerns. Pour your favorite libation and take a listen as you sift through the cornucopia of ideas and develop possible profitable trades.
Notes From Underground: Will He Or Won’t He? (Only His Son-In-Law Knows)
August 14, 2018On Monday, Rick Santelli and I unpacked a great deal in the few minutes we were allotted on CNBC. The Turkish story remains a key to the global financial markets. The U.S. equity markets interpreted that as all-clear, and the narrative of a dynamic U.S. growth story sustains itself.
(Click on the image to watch me and Rick talk Turkey.)
Notes From Underground: Synchronicity
February 5, 2018We have had many false key technical signals over the last 12 months. BUT LAST WEEK there have been THREE KEY REVERSALS. The DOW, S&Ps AND NASDAQ all made all-time highs and closed below the previous week’s low. SYNCHRONICITY indeed. Pay close attention as the world is all aflutter with fears of higher interest weeks forcing a reassessment of equity values. I believe Monday’s massive selloff IS A RESULT OF THE MASSIVE EFFECT OF THE RISK PARITY PARADIGM. I have warned that all the synthetic mimics of DALIO’s risk parity profiles were going to create a small door in which to exit. I am posting a podcast I recorded with Anthony Crudele on January 30, but just released this morning. Learn from actual traders, CHI GIRL and YRA HARRIS.
Notes From Underground: Ghosts (Past, Present and Future)
December 21, 2017I want to wish every one who celebrates Christmas a very joyous season, and, most importantly I want to wish all my readers a year of good health and peace. The meaning of Christmas, Hanukkah and the spirit of the season should resonate with us everyday of the year. As I have told my children over the years about their wedding day: It is the least important day for it is the next day that matters most as does every day that follows. May we experience the meaning of the season each and every day of the coming year. I was always amazed that wars would halt for a Christmas truce but begin hostilities 12 days later. If you could stop for 12 days why not 12 months?
Notes From Underground: In An Algo-Driven World Headlines Matter
December 3, 2017Friday: Dateline. INACCURATE NEWS.
There is GOLD to be found in the digital world where headlines can move financial markets faster than your eyes can blink or your brain can separate fact from fiction. ABC investigative journalist Brian Ross published a report that said President Trump asked Michael Flynn to reach out to Russia during the campaign. The network was forced to correct the story, clarifying that the request was carried out during the transition period, and suspended Ross. President Trump tweeted that investors harmed by ABC’s action should sue for damages. Trump may actually have a legitimate opinion but I believe the President’s Tweets carry the same litmus test.