Archive for the ‘G-7’ Category

Notes From Underground: Coal for Some Stockings?

December 12, 2021

If you’re only looking at the headlines from the past 48 hours, there is something major going on. First, on Friday afternoon Bloomberg reported that the G-7 finance chiefs are planning to discuss inflation as prices soar and the Financial Times followed on Saturday about the U.S. Democrats pushing the Federal Reserve for tougher action against inflation. These two stories are everything that we at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND have been discussing since the Dems’ poor election showing last month.

The White House polls — and thus the political operatives — reflected that inflation concerns were going to be the biggest issue for all Democrats in 2022, which is why there was a sense of urgency to use SPR and release oil to drive headline energy costs down. It’s the classic political ploy to appear to be doing something. What’s next? Wage and price controls?


Notes From Underground: The G-7 Meet on Tuesday

April 13, 2020

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the G-7 will be holding a video conference Tuesday, which will include all the central bankers. What is on the agenda? It has not been announced so we are left to GUESSING. The Swap LINES have been opened, massive asset purchase programs are in place, new facilities have been created and fiscal stimulus is raining down in all the old familiar places. The OIL agreement is in place and the FED has even embarked on a program of exchanging CASH for high yield bond ETFs in an effort to prevent a continued negative feedback loop in corporate debt markets. What is there for the G-7 to discuss?


Notes From Underground: Time It Was, What a Time It Was

August 27, 2019

These Simon and Garfunkel lyrics could apply to the events of this past weekend, the bookends of Jackson Hole and the G-7 meeting. The meaning was best summed up i a Financial Times story that quoted St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said, “Something is going on ,and that’s causing I think a total rethink of central banking  and all our cherished notions about what we think we’re doing. We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going to be normal.”


Notes From Underground: When the Paradox Of Thrift Doesn’t Apply

August 25, 2019

John Maynard Keynes’ critical theory said in times of uncertainty economic actors tend to save more, which leads to a negative feedback loop that slows the economy as demand shrinks. This is why governments need to increase fiscal stimulus to boost demand. It’s too bad that President Trump doesn’t exercise the paradox of thrift when it comes to WORDS. Let there be no mistake: We at NOTES have been expecting a response from Trump like this.


Notes From Underground: A Conversation With Bonugli and Ronni Stoeferle

June 10, 2018

On June 6, I had a discussion with the Financial Repression Authority host Richard Bonugli and the highly respected Ronni Stoeferle. We covered myriad of global financial and political concerns as we tried to provide the foundation for profitable opportunities via in-depth analysis of these fragilities.


Notes From Underground: Happy Memorial Day, A New Podcast from FRA

May 29, 2017

I am posting a new FRA podcast that was recorded May 24 with Richard Bonugli. We cover many important topics, including the rise of Bitcoin as an investable product. As I have said often, I need to learn more about crypto-currencies and their impact on the global financial system. Unlike Ben Bernanke, I understand GOLD but am seeking to understand BITCOINS. I am striving to learn the workings of the block chain mechanism and relying on the wisdom of one of favorite readers and supporters American Limey.


Notes From Underground: In the Shadows of the G-7 and Janet Yellen

May 29, 2016

The G-7 left us wondering about the substance and Janet Yellen was more dovish than the headlines revealed. Chair Yellen raised the issue of increasing rates “in the coming months” and more importantly she invoked the idea of “social justice” in the role of economics. For three years I have discussed that Janet Yellen is a moral philosopher and in that mindset would be far more likely to allow WAGES to rise faster before moving to raise interest rates to slow the economy. I have no problem with the idea of  a labor economist erring on the side of desiring an increase in wages in an effort for labor to claw back some advantage from KAPITAL. My question: Are market’s misjudging Chair Yellen in this regard and therefore mispricing risk? This issue will not disappear and needs to be put into the equation of interest rates rising sooner than later. There will be more to follow in regards to Janet Yellen’s invoking of the social basis of her mentor, Professor James Tobin. Enjoy the weekend and think about those who gave the ultimate sacrifice for the freedoms we so value and allows for social media to provide the free flows of thought.

Yra & Rick, May 27, 2016

Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss the ways in which the central banks have distorted the debt markets.

Financial Repression Authority

Click on the image above to watch my interview with Financial Repression Authority.

Notes From Underground: How Do You Say Chutzpah in Chinese (Or G-7: Part II)

May 25, 2016

As I begin my further analysis of the unfolding political/economic factors facing the global markets I seek your indulgence and set the table by quoting from what I believe is one of the most significant chapters in western literature. Notes From Underground takes its title from the essay of the same name of by Fyodor Dostoyevsky. The tagline, 2+2=5, is a summation by Dostoyevsky to poke at the Rationalists of his day. But the chapter of note is from the novel The Brothers Karamazov titled, “The Grand Inquisitor.” The scene is set as the Grand Inquisitor has arrested the Christ figure for daring to upset the social order that the Church has created. The entire chapter is so moving but allow me to quote a small part:


Notes From Underground: Is This the Market Genuflecting To the Presumed Power Of the G-7?

May 24, 2016

Confusion rained/reigned today as all the main global equity markets rallied as if spooked by some possible sea-change in policy. While some analysts attributed the strong rally a low volume short covering rush to the exits, I BELIEVE IT IS THE RESPONSE TO THE LARRY SUMMERS’S PUSH FOR A MASSIVE GLOBAL BASED FISCAL STIMULUS PACKAGE. This has been Summers’s mantra for the past year and it is gaining a following in the inner sanctum of the global elite. There is no question that the DAVOS CROWD has been battered by the gaining strength of “fringe party” electors around the world. There is a need on the part of the self-selected elite to maintain their hold over government policy. A massive stimulus package spent on investment tax credits and massive infrastructure projects will provide the boost to maintaining positions of authority. Those who are concerned about budget deficits will be told that with interest rates at record lows it would be folly not to invest in our children’s futures.


Notes From Underground: This Is the Week That Will Be

May 22, 2016

In the past I have criticized the CNBC tagline, “Live From The Most Powerful City In the World, New York.” I find it arrogant and devoid of any perspective. What makes a city powerful? In some sense I suppose it’s the ability to make and shape events around the globe. Wall Street may be a powerful money center but so is London and from a political and monetary sense Beijing has catapulted itself a spot among the most influential. Friday morning I did an interview with Gordon Long of the Financial Repression Authority, a must visit site for its archive of discussions on global macro issues. We were discussing the role of China in affecting U.S. monetary policy. Gordon Long has discussed the idea of an agreement reached in February at the G-20 meeting in Shanghai about an ACCORD to keep the U.S. dollar stable to weak in an effort to prevent the Chinese from actively pursuing a weaker YUAN for when the DOLLAR RALLIES THE YUAN IS ALSO PUSHED HIGHER AGAINST A BASKET OF DEVELOPED MARKET CURRENCIES AND CERTAINLY AGAINST OTHER EMERGING MARKET FX.