September 25, 2022
As I go into hiatus I am posting a PODCAST recorded on September 20 with world renown Professor Dr. Alhajji, in which we discuss global energy and its implications on global politics and finance. The Financial Repression Authority, under the auspices of Richard Bonugli, has provided a wonderful platform for allowing me to discuss the most relevant global macro topics with the leading thinkers in the realm. The wisdom of Mr. Bonugli allows for ferreting out investment ideas — both long and short — to help provide insight and profit for readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND. Enjoy the podcast and I look forward to writing after the period of the Jewish Holidays as I’m in need of deep introspection. Wishing those who celebrate a coming year of health, peace and prosperity, and for those of other beliefs I wish you the same.
— Yra
Click on the link to view the podcast.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Bank of Japan, Fed Funds, Federal Reserve, Japanese yen, Jerome Powell, US dollar, yield curves
Posted in Currency, Fed, United States | 20 Comments »
September 20, 2022
A quick view on Wednesday’s FEDERAL RESERVE‘s meeting: According to the newest Fed stenographer, Nick Timiraos, look for the central bank to raise rates 75 basis points in an effort to get ahead of the curse of HEADLINE inflation. This level is baked into the present market values. Look to see if there is any discussion of slowing the FED FUNDS increases as the FED tries to get a handle on the impact of $95 billion a month balance sheet unwind and a DOLLAR that has risen 14% since the beginning of the year, and more than 20% versus the Japanese yen.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: dot plot, Federal Reserve, inflation, Jerome Powell, US dollar
Posted in Currency, Fed | 19 Comments »
September 14, 2022
It was a fortuitous day that Richard Bonugli arranged a podcast with Joseph Wang, author of the Fed Guy and an former employee of the New York Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA). The podcast was recorded 90 minutes after the release of Tuesday’s CPI data so there was much to discuss in real time about FED policy, the recent moves in the SPOOs, dollar, commodities and precious metals were all reversed because the MARKETS seemed to have been caught off guard by a much higher number than Wall Street pundits anticipated.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: CPI data, fed funds futures, Fed Funds Rate, Fed guy, Federal Reserve, Joseph Wang, QT, quantitative tightening, US dollar
Posted in Currency, Fed, United States | 3 Comments »
August 24, 2022
I have not been a fan of yours since your January 2019 “Powell Pivot,” when you allowed yourself to be fooled by the markets. In an effort to rein in Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen’s QE programs you went for what Stan Druckenmiller called the “double shotgun approach” and raised interest rates while reducing the Fed’s balance sheet — what Peter Boockvar called Quantitative Tightening (QT).
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Ed Yardini, Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, QE, QT, US dollar
Posted in Fed | 19 Comments »
August 16, 2022
On Friday I sat down with Richard Bonugli at the Financial Repression Authority and Doomberg to discuss the current situation in global energy and tried to peek into the future as to where Europe and the US are going to find the means to provide dependable and affordable energy to power economic growth. Enjoy the podcast and hopefully it will lead to more high levels of discussion on all things global macro.
Click here to view the podcast.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: balance sheet unwind, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, neutral rate, portfolio balance channel, QT, rentier class, unemployment
Posted in Fed | 13 Comments »
August 3, 2022
I yet another effort to understand where are going with the FED and their so-called NEUTRAL RATE, FRA hosted a podcast with Darius Dale of 42 Macro. It entertains themes familiar to readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND as yield curves and currencies provide the backdrop for a great part of the analysis. We also discussed the next vote of the FOMC to see if the newest GOVERNORS finally find their voice and begin elevating their research into policy. Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson are well known labor economists that Professor Jason Furman called the most dovish appointees in decades, and yet we have not heard a discouraging word from the FED neophytes.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook, neutral rate, Philip Jefferson, US yield curve
Posted in Fed | 7 Comments »
August 1, 2022
It has been quite an extended period since my last post, but now I’m trying to catch up on some reading and relevant research on all things pertinent to GLOBAL MACRO. Following the FEDERAL RESERVE’S INTEREST RATE DECISION and the POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE, I sat down with Richard Bonugli, Peter Boockvar and Daniel Lacalle. This 66-minute podcast is packed with several pertinent topics, including yield curves, the dollar, Europe and even ESG investments. Please enjoy and I await your feedback and hopefully disagreements. Only the parochialist in echo chambers pursue validation.
Click here to listen to the recording.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Federal Reserve, FOMC, Jerome Powell, recession, Swiss Franc, US dollar, yield curves
Posted in Currency, Fed | 9 Comments »
June 26, 2022
To my readers —
My apologies for the long hiatus, but in addition to my sojourn to the East Coast, my eyesight has been suboptimal. That said, my mind has been ruminating on what has been a very active first half of the year between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Fed’s aggressive path — in addition to other central banks exiting a stimulative framework. While I may not be writing at the moment, I’ve taken the time to record a couple of Financial Repression Authority podcasts. The first was with Spanish economist Daniel Lacalle. As always, I look forward to your questions, comments and concerns as we head into the second half of what’s already turning into a tumultuous 2022.
Tags: central banks, Federal Reserve, monetary policy, Podcast
Posted in Podcast | 21 Comments »
May 22, 2022
Since the Zoltan Pozsar challenged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to find his inner Paul Volcker and raise interest rates high enough to bring the inflation expectations to heel. (He argued draining liquidity and raising rates to a NEUTRAL level OUGHT to be the medicine needed to truly render the current high inflation levels TRANSITORY.) Last week, Pozsar pushed on the theme again with a piece titled, “Ride of the ‘Volkyries'” in which the issue of financial conditions tightening is discussed in reflection to current FED policy of curbing inflation through the crushing of demand.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: financial conditions, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Paul Volcker, US dollar, wealth destruction, Zoltan Pozsar
Posted in Currency, Fed, United States | 15 Comments »
May 10, 2022
Last week the FOMC raised rates by 50 basis points, which seemed like the most likely outcome (although interest rate markets had assigned a slight probability of 75 basis point increase). The statement was nothing if not vague about the FED‘s plans, yet the last sentence left the central bank room for flexibility: “The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: balance sheet unwind, demand destruction, inflation, Jerome Powell, QT, U.S. Dollar, wealth destruction
Posted in Fed | 8 Comments »