Posts Tagged ‘2/10 Curve’

Notes From Underground: The Hokey POLLkey

June 14, 2016

You put your left poll in, you take your left poll out, you put your right poll in and you shake it all about … and that is how you get the hokey POLLKEY. The markets are moved by the cacophony of polls, both private and public. Couple that with the ability to broadcast any and all results via social media in an immediate fashion, the markets get high frequency volatility. This is why I keep advising to trade with FERVOR, invest with FEAR. Brexit is keeping everyone on edge but the most confusing variable is the BETTING LINES at the London bookmakers. Always deemed the smart money, the odds are favoring a REMAIN vote while the markets are pricing in a higher probability of BREXIT. It’s a great arbitrage opportunity. Global equity markets are certainly fearful as investors are leery of being caught in the downdraft of a BREXIT vote.

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Notes From Underground: Weak Unemployment Report Creates A Cacophony of Market Reactions

October 4, 2015

Before we review Friday’s action, I would like to present a quote from Tolstoy sent from a long-time reader and is representative of the 2+2=5 basis of Notes From Underground. While I have respect for the theoretical basis in the continued search for knowledge, I try to write NOTES with a deeper understanding of the fundamentals that drive markets on a short- and long-term time scale.

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Notes From Underground: The Unemployment Data Was Almost as Disappointing as Europe

July 10, 2011

Friday’s unemployment report revealed that Thursday’s ADP data was, again, a “FALSE POSITIVE.” The 157,000 ADP gain failed to show in the BLS numbers and all the Wall Street economists were caught off guard as they spent Thursday night ramping up their guesstimates to be more in-line with the private sector prognosticator. The initial response by the EQUITIES was to sell off as the lack of job growth undermines the recent S&P and DOW rally. At day’s end, the equities staged a rally and the loss on the day was small, especially relative to the strength shown early in the week.

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Notes From Underground: WAS BERNANKE HAWKING A HAWKISH OUTLOOK???

June 22, 2011

I feel like I’m the odd analyst out in that Bernanke failed to impress upon me that he is a DOVE in HAWKS’ feathers. Reading the FOMC statement over and over leaves me wondering just what made the statement so strong an anti-inflation stance. The FOMC release reiterated that the FED is relying on closing the output gaps, “including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.” This is not the musings of an inflation HAWK.

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Notes From Underground: The Unemployme​nt Data (A Tale of Two Numbers)

February 6, 2011

As all the media reported, the U.S. unemployment numbers clouded and befuddled the markets as the non-farm payroll (NFP) was much lower than expected, yet the unemployment rate dropped to 9.o percent to 9.4 percent. This is the second consecutive month that the headline unemployment rate dropped 0.4 percent. However, both reporting periods showed very anemic JOBS GROWTH. Ben Bernanke and other FED officials have said it would take jobs growth of more than 200,000 a month to begin to bring the rate down. Even though the rate dropped 0.4 percent on a NFP number of 36,000-plus, it raises more questions than answers. (more…)