Posts Tagged ‘bond market’
April 5, 2020
At this time of great chaos in the world I am going to take a 10 day hiatus to sit back and reflect as it is the time of Passover and Easter. These holidays will take on special significance this year as the Covid-19 impacts our plans.
So as I retrench I put forward the words of the Prophet Micah for something to contemplate: “To Act Justly, and to LOVE MERCY and to walk HUMBLY with YOUR GOD.” Wishing all my readers a meaningful period of the holidays before us. I may post a podcast I recorded this morning with Anthony Crudele but that will be it, although I will respond to all questions in an effort to stay alert to critical issues in a rapidly changing global environment. Now to the issues before us.
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Tags:bond market, Christine Lagarde, Euro, Eurobond, European Union, Fed, Jerome Powell, oil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Central Banks, Currency, Debt Market, Fed, Oil | 20 Comments »
July 31, 2014
Today’s trade was supposedly a risk on/risk off as all of July’s news that failed to impact the market became relevant today. Argentina, Gaza, Ukraine, Portuguese banks … all these issues became reasons for the 2 percent selloff in global equity markets. The problem with the pundits in search of a correlative rationale failed to find the traditional correlations. The SPOOS sold off forty points and the bonds actually closed lower. The YEN, which has been the safe harbor for global investors, remained unchanged for most of the trading session. GOLD, the ultimate haven, lost $14 and closed miserably for the month. Tomorrow’s GOLD action will be critical as we closed under the 200-day moving average. A CLOSE under 1276.50 after the unemployment report will be the end of my bullish outlook on GOLD until some other technicals provide support.
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Tags:bond market, Gold, Janet Yellen, SPS, Stanley Druckenmiller, Yen, yield curves, ZIRP
Posted in Currency, Debt Market, Fed, Gold | 10 Comments »
December 27, 2012
The ideas CNBC is spreading about the FISCAL CLIFF is just absurd. The addiction to higher stock prices has meant that a failure to get the equity market to rally due to falling off the “CLIFF” prevents quality policy from being attained. Going over the “CLIFF” will at least put spending front and center for we are all sure that taxes are going higher so the discussion must get to a genuine discussion about spending, and yes, that means serious cuts in the bloated defense sector. The FED‘s policy means that monetary policy will support the economy into the medium term and alleviate some of the pain from government spending cuts. It’s not drastic austerity but a realistic plan for dealing with rampant profligacy.
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Tags:bond market, CDO, central bank, corporate debt, Debt, Equities, Fed, fiscal cliff, fiscal policy, leveraged buyouts, Moody's, QE, S&P
Posted in Debt Market, Fed, Fiscal Cliff | 5 Comments »
April 9, 2012
Friday’s weaker than expected JOBS REPORT caused AGITA in the BOND and EQUITY MARKETS. Early in the week, the markets had punished the BONDS and EQUITIES as the FOMC MINUTES caused the purveyors of QE3 as a SURE THING to stop, look and listen. The sounds that they had listened to were from the previous speech by Chairman Bernanke as he voiced his deep concerns about the persistent drag of unemployment on GDP. The rush of FED governors and District presidents to any microphone to undermine the chairman’s views caused the market to pause and reconsider its stance on possible FED normalizing rates quicker than the “extended period” language presumed. Stocks were under pressure and U.S. Treasuries were offered as hints of FED buying grabbed traders attention.
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Tags:Bernanke, Bill White, BIS, bond market, Dilma Rousseff, Dollar, equity market, ethanol, Fed Governors, FOMC minutes, grain, QE3, unemployment report
Posted in Brazil, Ethanol, Fed | 5 Comments »
February 5, 2012
The Obama administration had much to cheer as the NONFARM PAYROLL number exceeded almost all the pundits and FED‘s projections. Just before the release, CNBC analysts were in herd formation all gathered around the “BULL” of safety and predicted around a 100,000 job gain. Job gains came in at roughly 250,000 even as state and local governments continued to shed employees. Earlier, the Canadian data was tepid, but again, the Ontario manufacturing sector added jobs and is mirroring the increase in manufacturing seen in the U.S. Whether the predictors of the release are right or wrong makes no difference to traders or investors for the most important pundit is the market’s reaction.
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Tags:10-year Treasury futures, BOE, bond market, ECB, equity, euribor rate cut, Euro, Fed, IMF, LTRO, Maiden Lane, Nonfarm Payroll, palladium, platinum, portfolio balance channel, QE, S&P/US ratio, Troika, U.S. Treasury Market
Posted in BOE, Debt Market, ECB, Europe, Fed, United States | 2 Comments »
December 18, 2011
All these years of the high level meetings at the World Economic Forum in Davos and what do we have to show for its efforts? At the INSIDERS BALL, where the elites exchange views and pay up to $500,000 for the privilege to listen to ideas that are to move the global capitalist system forward. If the results of the last decade are the aggregation of the best ideas that the “best and brightest” are capable of, then it is time to end the charade of Davos and send the global elite home in tears before they can cause any further damage? The DAVOS crowd has fared well as the global economy has suffered creating a huge question mark over the policy output that is the result of the global hierarchy gathered in the scenic environs of Switzerland. This view is not new as the economist Adam Smith warned long ago:
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Tags:Adam Smith, Barron's, bond bears, bond market, bond vigilantes, Davos, debt crisis, ECB, Fed, gold/euro, LTRO, QE, Van Hoisington, Wealth of Nations, World Economic Forum
Posted in Debt Market, ECB, Europe | 2 Comments »
October 5, 2011
The European problems are made from the continued deception of the policy makers that meander from crisis to crisis. Eurocrats denied that there was a sovereign credit crisis even as the BOND MARKET was aggressively selling the debt of the PIIGS. A problem in Greece when rates went above 10% on 2-year Greek Bonds? No, just some speculators moving the markets in an attempt to make a quick EURO. There are no problems in the EU. Now that the lies have given birth to a major crisis and possible global DEPRESSION, the EUROCRATS are beginning to acknowledge that something is rotten in Brussels.
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Tags:Antonio Borges, BOE, bond market, depression, ECB, Euro, Eurocrats, Greece, IMF, PIIGS, Portugal, quantitative easing, Trichet
Posted in BOE, Central Banks, ECB, Europe | 8 Comments »
September 14, 2011
The potential for a big market-moving story was in the works but the usually aggressive, boisterous Jim Cramer, in his interview with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, resembled a tea party at an American Girl store. It seems that when Cramer fears being audited he goes quiet. The questions about Europe were milquetoast, leading to ridiculous answers–“I am sure Europe will be there in three years.” It proved to be worthless and provided little clarification on the issues of “THE TWIST” and how the U.S. was going to act in concert with the Europeans to help resolve the effects of the severe credit crisis that is impinging global financial institutions and certainly European economic growth.
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Tags:10-year note, 30-year, Alan Bollard, bond market, CNBC, convexity problem, Dollar, ECB, Fed, Germany, Jim Cramer, Kiwi, PIIGS, QE, RBNZ, refi, RMBS, SNB, Swiss Franc, the Twist, Timothy Geithner, U.S.
Posted in Europe, Federal Reserve, New Zealand | 4 Comments »
April 27, 2011
First things first. The FED released its FOMC statement at 11:30 a.m. CST and, as expected, there was no change in the FED‘s policy and the “extended period” language remained as did the use of “transitory” to describe the recent run up in fuel and food costs. The markets initially showed little reaction as the “big event” was to be 90 minutes later. In fact, the U.S. DOLLAR actually remained a little bid and the precious METALS were on the offer as it appeared the market was HOPING for some strong words from the chairman of the FED. The most hyped event since Geraldo’s look into Capone’s vault, Bernanke’s press conference did nothing to assuage the fears that the FED was losing its credibility. The more Bernanke talked, the more GOLD and SILVER rallied and the harder the DOLLAR dropped.
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Tags:Ben Bernanke, Bollard, bond market, British pound, corporate credit spreads, Euro, Fed, Gold, inflation expectations, Kiwi, metals, RBNZ, silver, U.S. Dollar, unmoored
Posted in Currency, Debt Market, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Gold, United States | 8 Comments »
April 18, 2011
I wish to leave everyone with this great quote from a person I have little respect for but this quote is very apropos following the release from S&P this morning, which slashed the U.S. credit outlook to negative from stable. (It’s AAA-rating is still intact.) James Carville said:
“I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the BOND MARKET. YOU CAN INTIMIDATE EVERYBODY.”
The quote is great for it captures the real power of the BOND VIGILANTES. A question also arises about the role of the rating agencies and the “anti-trust exemption” they enjoy from the grace of Congress. It must be remembered that CONGRESS has legislative oversight so IS IT IN THE INTEREST OF THE RATERS TO FALL AFOUL OF ITS LIFE GIVERS? Isn’t this similar to the famed ANTI-TRUST EXEMPTION OF BASEBALL, only in this regard we are dealing with a FLOOD OF DEBT? Again, happy holidays to all of the readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND — YRA HARRIS
Tags:bond market, bond vigilantes, Congress, Debt, James Carville, S&P, U.S.
Posted in Debt Market, United States | 5 Comments »