Posts Tagged ‘Bowles-Simpson’

Notes From Underground: Let’s Enter the Fray

February 19, 2018

First, thank you to all the readers and friends who posted condolences and sent private notes on the passing of my dear brother Ralph. If you want to see his creativity, search for Dwight Ralphy on YouTube. They have provided me a laugh and reminder of how forward Ralph was as this work was created in the ’80s and ’90s.

For the past couple of days I have been reviewing market action and news stories that purportedly raised the volatility levels of equity, bond and currency markets. In my February 5 post I mentioned that the synchronized key reversals of the three major U.S. indices–Dow, Nasdaq and S&Ps–provided a backdrop that we have not experienced in many, many years. In June and August 2017, the Nasdaq 100 futures put in a weekly key reversal. An outside key reversal is when a market makes all-time highs and closes below the previous week’s low. This technical indicator has been a mainstay of the week of high quality technicians and last year’s failure of this long trusted indicator drove market seers crazy.


Notes From Underground: But Subjectivity Is Objective (Woody Allen, Love and Death)

November 15, 2017

The airwaves fill with the narrative of the coming corporate tax cut benefiting profits, growth and higher wages. Each side argues that their data is closer to reality: one being static analysis the other dynamic scoring of increased growth. My view continues to be, REAL TAX REFORM, NOT A TAX CUT. Genuine tax reform would provide tax relief for the middle-income earners and most probably result in a tax increase for the high-income earners. Congress has mucked up TAX REFORM as the starting point OUGHT to have been a return to BOWLES/SIMPSON. The problem with the Bowles plan is that it meant spending cuts as well as an effort to broaden the tax base by closing many tax loopholes. Also, Alan Simpson was in favor of defense cuts so it was a genuine tax restructuring as all “OXES WOULD BE GORED.”


Notes From Underground: S&P’s Downgrade … Where’s the BEEF??

April 20, 2011

The markets were roiled by the S&P DOWNGRADE of  the U.S. DEBT  outlook to a “negative” while maintaining the AAA rating. This really could be of no surprise to those who follow the markets closely. The initial reaction was to sell the equities and BONDS. The surprise was that the U.S. DOLLAR was bought aggressively. All of these  trades were short-lived as the S&P closed against recent highs today and the BONDS rallied back immediately on Monday although they have softened with the strength in the EQUITY markets. The DOLLAR was purportedly bid because of the FINNISH vote on Sunday night and of rumors of a GREEK restructuring.


Notes From Underground: Irish Elections, Bahrain and the U.S. DOLLAR fails to RALLY

February 24, 2011

All eyes have been focused on the MIDDLE EAST for its huge impact on OIL prices. There is a debate between those who believe that the OIL supply disruption is inflationary as energy prices create a rising price environment and those who believe that high energy prices are a tremendous drag on economic growth. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND is in the camp that OIL supply disruptions are a drag on growth, especially in an environment of high unemployment and a severely stretched consumer. It is this fear that has roiled the stock market in the U.S. and put stress upon the global financial system. Emerging markets that are already feeling the impact of higher food costs will now have to deal with higher energy prices, which many governments already subsidize for its citizens. Will the situation in Bahrain be as economic disastrous as some analysts and pundits are claiming?


Notes From Underground: The World Awaits the State of the Union but it is Sarkozy in Search of A Balcony

January 24, 2011

First and foremost: My thoughts and prayers go out to  the Russian people as the nihilistic elements of global terrorism crafted its senseless actions on the Moscow Airport. It is not my bullish view on Russia that provokes my thoughts, but rather the ugliness of NIHILISM. Random terrorist acts are to be opposed wherever and whenever they raise its spectre of wanton destructiveness. The Russians will of course respond with a heavy hand for Putin et al care very little about public relations. Brutality will beget brutality. Political expediency will trump all rationality for  neither Medvedev nor Putin will want to be perceived as weak in the eyes of a resurgent nationalistic populace.