It is always a great pleasure to be able to discuss the global financial situation with Louis Gave and have Richard Bonugli moderate the discussion. There are several issues discussed in this hour podcast but I want to provide listeners with a key rule of Gave: While it may seem like forecasting it is anything but. It is merely adapting to a changing landscape as global investing is dynamic in nature while so many critical academic models are STATIC. It is up to those who invest in myriad number of relevant asset classes to be aware of the changing conditions in an effort to MINIMIZE losses from ill-conceived trades while seeking to find the greatest profits potential from being able to analyze the changing conditions.
Posts Tagged ‘central banks’
Notes From Underground: Talking With Louis Gave
January 29, 2023Notes From Underground: US Debt, Never A Problem?
December 13, 2022As we head into the end of 2022 we are reminded yet again of the sagacious wisdom of Louis Gave: Our investors pay us to ADAPT, NOT FORECAST. WALL STREET pundits have released a cacophony of 2023 predictions, and there’s always a race to ramp up all types of forecasts in an effort to make it to draw attention. The hills are alive with the echoes of Joseph Granville for the more outrageous the forecast the greater the chance for being elevated into the Pantheon of Oracles. If your off-the-chart predictions remain off the chart no one will ever remember, except SBF/FTX. The only certainty in 2023 is that the wisdom of MAO will be brought forward as IT TAKES A SINGLE SPARK TO START A PRAIRIE FIRE. There are several piles of dry tinder waiting to be lit. One of the most critical is the growing debt in the US that needs to be financed.
Notes From Underground: Recapping the Last Two Weeks
November 20, 2022The day after the FED meeting I sat down with the FINANCIAL REPRESSION AUTHORITY and did a podcast with David Rosenberg and Peter Boockvar. The discussion is still relevant as it speaks a great deal about bond, equity and, in particular, currency valuations. Then on Monday, November 7 Richard Bonugli hosted an hourlong discussion with Brent Johnson and myself, which was also about currency valuations and the precarious global situation of massive debt overhang. Finally, I recorded a third podcast with FRA and Eric Peters about crypto and the possible fallout from the collapse of FTX. There’s lots to digest here but as always I remind readers that the only relevance for traders/investors is to find meaningful trades or investments. Otherwise we are just talking to hear ourselves talk, which is in the very real sense meaningless. Also, it is not always what you make through relevant ideas but the capital preserved by not following the herd.
Click to listen to the Nov. 4 podcast with David Rosenberg and Peter Boockvar.
Click to listen to the Nov. 7 podcast with Brent Johnson.
Notes From Underground: Staring Into the Abyss
June 26, 2022To my readers —
My apologies for the long hiatus, but in addition to my sojourn to the East Coast, my eyesight has been suboptimal. That said, my mind has been ruminating on what has been a very active first half of the year between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Fed’s aggressive path — in addition to other central banks exiting a stimulative framework. While I may not be writing at the moment, I’ve taken the time to record a couple of Financial Repression Authority podcasts. The first was with Spanish economist Daniel Lacalle. As always, I look forward to your questions, comments and concerns as we head into the second half of what’s already turning into a tumultuous 2022.
Notes From Underground: Bernard Connolly Is Worth a Good Whiskey
February 1, 2022Three weeks ago I recorded a podcast with Bernard Connolly, author of “The Rotten Heart of Europe,” and one of the greatest global macro minds. Utilizing global money flows and more than 45 years of analyzing political economic realities, we at Notes From Underground have tried to unlock some of the “mysteries” of the global financial landscape in an effort to find profitable trading opportunities across myriad asset classes. The blog strives to take into account nuance in order to seek out profitable trades with as low risk as possible. That’s why we’ve always advocated patience in an algo-driven world.
Notes From Underground: Coal for Some Stockings?
December 12, 2021If you’re only looking at the headlines from the past 48 hours, there is something major going on. First, on Friday afternoon Bloomberg reported that the G-7 finance chiefs are planning to discuss inflation as prices soar and the Financial Times followed on Saturday about the U.S. Democrats pushing the Federal Reserve for tougher action against inflation. These two stories are everything that we at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND have been discussing since the Dems’ poor election showing last month.
The White House polls — and thus the political operatives — reflected that inflation concerns were going to be the biggest issue for all Democrats in 2022, which is why there was a sense of urgency to use SPR and release oil to drive headline energy costs down. It’s the classic political ploy to appear to be doing something. What’s next? Wage and price controls?
Notes From Underground: It’s Hard to Believe
December 8, 2021A Note From Notes
On December 7, 2009, NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND published its first post and we’ve shared a few thousand thoughts since then (all archived at WordPress and for those on CQG they available thanks to the great efforts of Stan Yabroff). In sifting through this treasure trove I am proud to say this has been an arduous but rewarding endeavor. The amount of work is great especially because so many of these musings have been time sensitive.
Then in the last five years, I’ve been fortunate enough to work with the Financial Repression Authority to elevate the discussion surrounding these thoughts with some of the greatest minds in the business — Felix Zulauf, Marc Faber, Jim Bianco, Peter Boockvar, Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, Louis Gave and so many others.
So as I scroll through the voluminous posts, podcasts and CNBC appearances, I’m in awe of how we’ve attempted to open up the world of financial markets to deep analytical exegesis of important investment ideas on a time scale from one hour to years depending upon the amount of leverage involved in the trade. As Louis Gave once said, “I am not paid to forecast for my clients but to adapt,” that sums up the endeavor of this blog. Over the past 12 years I have hoped to get my readers to adopt to the illogical exigencies of the geo-political world. The rationalists do not read NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND because they know where prices OUGHT to be.
But, where do we go from here? This is where you come in, dear readers. I’d be interested in understanding how you best consume this information. Maybe it’s a 15-minute daily chat with FRA’s Richard Bonugli and other guests. Either way, we’re going to try and monetize this wealth of information, and offer up my wisdom to large traders, sovereign wealth funds and family wealth offices and the like. It’s been so enriching interacting with many minds around the world. I am beyond grateful to experience, teach and, most importantly, learn from the likes of Dave Richards, Mike Temple, Big Man, Professor Waspi and many more.
In that vein, I am posting a podcast that was recorded about two weeks ago, a roundtable of sorts featuring Jim Bianco and Peter Boockvar. This may be one of the best ways to advance NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND.
Many Thanks,
Yra
Notes From Underground: Will It Be An Inflated Jobs Report?
September 2, 2021After FEDERAL RESERVE Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, the jobs data may have taken on added significance. Inflation was not a concern for Powell as that is considered transitory within the bowels of the FOMC. The failure of the employment situation to enable all who lost jobs due to COVID “through no fault of their own” has regained paramount importance.
Notes From Underground: Before I Break
August 15, 2021On Sunday, we acknowledge the 50-year anniversary of Richard Nixon’s decision to close the GOLD EXCHANGE WINDOW and put an end to the post-World War monetary system known as Bretton Woods. I can say exactly where I was: A bus station in Afula, Israel buying ice cream in dollars and the price rose as it was the day after the announcement. The proprietor told us prices increased because the dollar bought less. I truly had no idea but just remember that it happened in real time and proved not to be a transitory event. Much is being written about the anniversary and the implications for the global economy.T he Nixon strategy was summed up in his supposed statement of “We ARE ALL KEYNESIAN’S NOW.”
Notes From Underground: What A Week (Or Was It a Month)
July 22, 2021At the beginning of the week, the COVID DELTA VARIANT was the major concern as the weekend brought news of a widespread increase. It seemed world financial markets were in the throes of concern of another pandemic lockdown with the Olympics being cancelled. We at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND offered context and stressed that the zero interest-rate markets would provide a far different backdrop than what occurred in March 2020. We did learn that zero interest rates lowered inflation concerns and the Olympics are still taking place, although to empty stadiums. SO THE BULL MARKET MUST GO ON.