The Mario Draghi brought forth a new and improved standard of “truth obfuscation” at Thursday’s ECB press conference. When Draghi answered a question about the ECB basing its policy on politics he answered: “We are not in a political game.” In his “perception” there is NO POLITICAL WAR BETWEEN THE ECB AND ITS MEMBER NATIONS. This is of course unadulterated nonsense as everything the ECB does is political. During the ECB’s initial state of decision-making, then-President Wim Duisenberg said, “WE HEAR BUT WE DO NOT LISTEN.” The ECB claimed it pays attention to political discussion but its policy is set by objective criteria. Duisenberg brought proof to the nonsense of objectivity as the ECB kept its interest rates ridiculously low to aid the Germans in their cost of financing German unification and making the implementation of the HARTZ IV labor restructuring easier to easier to absorb for the German government. Duisenberg’s policy of negative real yields put severe pressure on the EURO as it dropped in value from its initial price of 117.5 to 82.5 which created credit problems for all of Europe but the Germans. As usual, it raises the question, WHOSE EURO IS IT?
Posts Tagged ‘central banks’
It seems that 108 years is enough time to pass to relive history. For those who are not sports fans, Merkle’s Boner is a famous mistake made by New York player Fred Merkel, who didn’t touch second base and was called out erasing the “fact” that the New York Giants had beaten the Chicago Cubs. The major GAFFE led to the Cubs beating the Giants and the CUBS moving to the World Series where they defeated the Detroit Tigers for their last World Series championship only 108 years ago.
(Larry Summers had to run to his medicine cabinet to take Prozac (not Diazepam as in the Rolling Stones song) after he read the G-20 communique. The finance ministers and central bank heads meeting in Shanghai failed to come to terms with any of the issues concerning the global economy. There was no PLAZA ACCORD and no deep discussions about the need for massive fiscal stimulus. The tone of the Communique was TEPID at best and views the present state of the global economy as slow but steady. There was certainly NO URGENCY about a rise in the prospects of a global recession. The finance ministers downplayed the recent volatility and slide in global equity markets, suggesting by those domiciled in ivory towers and model-based rat holes that the MARKETS ARE MISTAKEN AND THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. The arguments among the participants was such that there were some issues that seem in direct contradiction of any policy response.
The markets are in turmoil and it gets the mind to thinking: What could possibly have caused today’s reversal in the stock market and the long end of the BOND MARKET? The market seemed like it was on the edge of a complete risk capitulation. The dollar was dropping, bonds all over the world were in rally mode and the precious metals were finally finding some technical strength as the GOLD (in pure dollar terms) had finally rallied through its 200-day moving average. Even the SILVER was able to synchronize with the GOLD and break out of three months of resistance. (The silver 200-day is at 15.13, still a bit above its closing price.) The global stock markets were cascading lower as the Nikkei and German DAX took out their lows made the night of the BOJ’s surprise move to a three-tiered negative interest rate policy.
Never has such calm winds cause so much turbulence. The markets have been grinding up and down during the last four weeks as traders and investors weigh the consequences of the Greek resolution and the Chinese intervention into their equity markets. ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN, THE CHINESE EQUITY MARKET IS AN OXYMORON. If a government can set the price of individual stocks or the price of bonds it is not a MARKET but a plaything for the ruling party. The Chinese Government can try to mandate rising stock prices but ultimately it will take more than a mandate but actually spending of capital to support prices, or else invoking the fear of capital punishment for all short sellers of equities (PUN INTENDED). The talking heads are concerned that the Chinese weakness is causing selling in all global equity markets. The DOW JONES did close under the 200-day moving average last Friday and continued its downward path today. The SPOOs tested the 200-day and managed to save itself by the market close.
The big news story from the weekend has been the warning from the central bankers’ banker, the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), that financial markets have become “… detached from the reality of a lingering post-crisis malaise, as it called for governments to ditch policies that risk stoking unsustainable asset booms.” The BIS annual report warns about leaving ultra-low interest rates for too long a period. The Financial Times article reported what I consider to be the most significant piece of the report: “Particularly for countries in the late stages of financial booms, the trade-off is now between the risk of bringing FORWARD THE DOWNWARD LEG OF THE CYCLE AND THAT OF SUFFERING A BIGGER BUST LATER ON” (emphasis mine).