Posts Tagged ‘CHF/JPY’

Notes From Underground: The Paroxysms of Brexit Polls, Or Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

June 13, 2016

This is a week loaded with data. The U.S. retail sales numbers are reported tomorrow and it will take a tremendous increase in consumer purchases to put any pressure on the June FOMC meeting to raise rates. Currently, the market consensus is for a 0.4% increase in core sales and I would venture a guess that it will take an increase of more 1.0% to move the needle on any talk of June being on the table. There are several British inflation numbers released tomorrow morning but with the Brexit vote next Thursday and a Bank of England meeting this Thursday there will be no change in BOE policy. Wednesday of course brings the FED and again the retail sales number would have to be very robust to move the FOMC. It ain’t going to happen. Wednesday night and Thursday morning brings the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank into focus. These two banks are more interesting as the recent strength in the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen provide some rationale for each of these banks to increase monetary stimulus to drive the respective currencies lower . However, both the BOJ and SNB will be careful not to roil the markets ahead of the BREXIT vote. Yet the Japanese seemed to be perturbed over the G-7 signaling its anger at the Japanese for its previous efforts to weaken the YEN. The Japanese authorities are not happy with the recent cut in Korean interest rates which have resulted in a weakened Korean won.

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