Posts Tagged ‘crude oil’
March 8, 2020
Well things are on the bubble as the Russians and Saudis had a “falling out” as lovers often because the OPEC talks resulted in an ostensible all-out war to break oil prices. The consensus loser will be the U.S. oil patch as the FRACKERS are carrying huge amounts of debt, which will not be paid while prices sharply decline.
There will be talks about a credit crisis as banks and other oil creditors will have to absorb losses and probably restrict lending to other borrowers. Those with private equity investments in the Bakken, Permian and others will be taking inventory on how battered their portfolios will be. The wily Putin will finally have his way as the sanctimonious Americans will have to rescind the ill-devised/ill-advised SANCTIONS that have had little impact.
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Tags:asset purchases, Christine Lagarde, crude oil, ECB, Eric Rosengren, Fed, Opec, Russia, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Dollar
Posted in ECB, Fed, Oil, Opec | 27 Comments »
September 15, 2019
The inmates are running the asylum as policy makers are busy putting out old prairie fires. The European Central Bank’s move on Thursday was a final curtain call for President Draghi as he sought to cement his legacy as the man that would do whatever it takes to “preserve the Euro” and would have no taboos in his efforts. But it seems like the opposition to both the rate cut and new QE was far greater than the magician of Frankfurt let on at his final obfuscation. It is amazing how the dissidents find their voice the day after. Oh well, so it goes in the world of consensus-driven outcomes.
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Tags:central banks, copper, crude oil, ECB, Fed, fiscal stimulus, Gold, Mario Draghi, precious metals, Saudi Arabia
Posted in Oil, Saudi Arabia | 13 Comments »
November 29, 2018
The Twitterverse is atwitter with news bits about the coming meeting this Friday and Saturday. There are rumors that Putin and Trump were going to meet but now the get-together is off. The once-scorned Peter Navarro is to be at the Xi/Trump summit after all. An Argentinian Judge has suggested that Saudi Crown Prince MBS may be arrested for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. There will be no agreement on free trade in the G-20 communique, especially as Trump has renewed threats against German auto firms with a 25 percent tariff on its exports to the United States. When Donald Trump comes to town it truly portends a three-ring circus.
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Tags:Angela Merkel, China, crude oil, Europe, G-20, Germany, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Xi Jinping
Posted in G-20, Oil | 9 Comments »
November 3, 2014
The question for global macro: Why did the Japanese decide to become more aggressive on quantitative easing at this moment? The YEN had been stable for most of the year, trading between 101 and 106 YEN to the DOLLAR and between 135 and 140 on the EUR/YEN for the previous four months. The Japanese seem to exert pressure after international meetings. The IMF and G7 and G20 ended in mid-October so either the Japanese wanted to avoid criticism about depreciating its currency or it received the GREEN LIGHT from the G7 members to get more aggressive on its QE efforts. Readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND can revisit a blog post from October 15, 2012 when I noted that the G7 communique seemed to give the Japanese authorities a “wink” in its efforts to weaken an overvalued YEN. Let’s examine some other possibilities for renewed efforts by the BOJ to weaken the YEN and, of course, lift equity prices in a simultaneous move:
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Tags:Abe, BOJ, crude oil, GPIF, Kuroda, portfolio balance channel, QE, Yen
Posted in BoJ | 4 Comments »
October 7, 2014
There is not doubt that Larry Summers is excited by October G-20 and IMF meetings as the top policy makers meet to discuss the state of the world economy and other significant global interests. It’s a time when the media is focused on the world’s leaders and Mr. Summers likes the role of being a major player. There is no question about Summer’s academic qualifications and his wealth of policy making experience. If success in the field of economics was based on eugenics, well, Larry Summers would certainly have a Nobel Prize. My one major criticism of Secretary Summers was his running interference for Robert Rubin and Sandy Weil in their efforts to repeal Glass-Steagall, which even Mr. Weil has admitted was a great mistake. In today’s Financial Times, Larry Summers had an op-ed, “Why Public Investment Really Is A Free Lunch.”
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Tags:Abe, Australian dollar, BOJ, copper, crude oil, G-20, IMF, Kuroda, Larry Summers, RBA, Yen
Posted in BoJ, Currency, Japan, RBA | 17 Comments »
January 19, 2012
The Obama Administration has taken recycling way too far. There is a rumor that former economic adviser Larry Summers is a potential nominee for President of the World Bank. Is there no one else besides these retreads who have represented and worked for the FINANCIAL-POLITICAL COMPLEX? Summers is a horrible choice as he has been tainted by his work and exorbitant compensation for several Wall Street firms. The idea that the World Bank president has to be an American is a throwback to the times when it was ok to fight anti-colonial wars around the globe and at the same time using the World Bank’s funds to buy friends and influence people no matter how tyrannical the regime.
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Tags:crude oil, Davos, Financial Times, Larry Summers, Mohamed El-Erian, Obama, Simon Johnson, World Bank, Yen
Posted in Currency, Japan, United States | 3 Comments »
October 25, 2011
The global markets are on tenterhooks waiting for the European leaders to come to some definitive plan of action to secure the European banking sector and provide relief to the problem of sovereign solvency issue of the so-called PIIGS. This problem has plagued the financial landscape since January 2010, when the Chinese SWF failed to buy a Greek 25 billion euro bond offering. When China didn’t fund Greece, the spotlight was directed to the European debt markets and the result has been a steady decay in the value of the sovereign debt of the European peripheries. After previous crisis meetings to stem the debt crisis, the time has come for the EUROCRATS and their political leaders to provide a program that has some genuine credibility.
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Tags:backwardization, Bank of Canada, crude oil, Dollar, Ecofin, Equities, Euro, Eurocrats, Gold, Greece, Gresham's Law, Iran, Mark Carney, PIIGS, spot price, SWF, U.S. Israel
Posted in Europe, Gold, Middle East, Oil | 5 Comments »
June 29, 2011
The question of the impact from the austerity budget passed by Greece will not be visible under the lights of television but will rather be a process drawn out during the coming years. Tears will flow not from the irritation of tear gas but from the “NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP” that has been initiated by the power of Brussels to exact its pain from the citizenry of Greece while applying the salve of credit relief to the global banks and financial entities saddled with the debt of the profligate PIIGS.
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Tags:Christine Lagarde, credit event, crude oil, debt rollover, Deutsche Bank, Dollar Swap Lines, Euro, euro/swiss, european bailout, Fed, GDP, Gold-backed bonds, Greece, IEA, IFF, IMF, Josef Ackermann, negative feedback loop, PIIGS, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Austerity, Europe | 4 Comments »
March 13, 2011
The people of Japan are under severe stress and deep anguish because of the cleanup from Friday’s devastating earthquake and tsunami. The readers of NOTES are well aware that my son, Tobias Harris, is a recognized analyst on Japanese politics and has been the recipient of Japanese hospitality on numerous trips and long periods of work. Our hearts go out to the Japanese people as they begin to come to terms with the massive amount of destruction and loss of life. As traders, we tend to focus on the financial ramifications of major disasters but the depth of despair and suffering for those caught in its wake is real and we should all offer our prayers and aid to the people of Japan. With that said, we know that as the human suffering is tabulated the world goes on and markets will be trying to come to terms with global financial impact.
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Tags:Angela Merkel, BOJ, crude oil, earthquake, ECB, EFSF, Enda Kenny, euro zone summit, France, Germany, Gold, Ireland, Japan, Mideast, PIIGS, Qaddafi, Sarkozy, sovereign bonds, Trichet, Yen
Posted in Commodities, Currency, Debt Market, Europe, Japan | 5 Comments »