Ten days ago, we published a blog post titled, “Sanctions Are Sanctimonious.” And lo and behold, this past week the U.S. moved to remove sanctions on the completion of the NORDSTREAM 2 pipeline, allowing Russian gas to flow freely and readily into Germany without paying the massive transit fees to the Ukraine. This is the culmination of the project promoted by previous German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.This story is huge for it shows that the world is — as NOTES portrays it — far more dynamic than the static analysts would have us believe.
Posts Tagged ‘DAX’
Notes From Underground: Rhapsody On the European Union
September 23, 2019On Thursday Peter Boockvar and I gabbed on all things macro with Richard Bonugli. We covered a great deal of the global financial quilt and as we remind listeners, we have done this to clarify important issues regarding financial concerns in an effort to either reduce risk or enhance profits.Concerns are still relevant in regards to what actually happened in Saudi Arabia as well as central bank credibility.
Notes From Underground: Why So Much Weight on Italy and Its Gold?
February 14, 2019There has been much discussion this week about how the current Italian government wants the nation’s GOLD to be the “property of the state” instead of on the Bank of Italy’s balance sheet. The coalition of Five Star and League have thought to gain control over the gold and some pundits have raised the idea of Italy selling its gold holdings, the world’s third largest, in an effort to plug holes in the budget. (NOTE: The Italian government is actually the fourth largest when the IMF is included.) Italian Prime Minister Matteo Salvini maintains that the government has no plans to sell any of the people’s GOLD. Maybe the Salvini Government is deciding to take the advice offered for the last eight years here at NOTES and monetize the GOLD by issuing GOLD-BACKED BONDS. (Securitizing the gold by selling bonds backed by one-fifth of an ounce of gold.)
Notes From Underground: The Government Shutdown, Or Lots of Media Drama
January 16, 2019While I was off visiting my children and grandchildren, the government took its own hiatus. However, while I am back at it, the government is still shuttered (partially, at least). For years the pundits have ranted about the negative effects on the economy (and some even singled out the markets). For all of the noise, the bond market is stable and stocks have rallied 8 percent since the shutdown began on December 22.
Notes From Underground: What Hath ALGOS Wrought?
April 2, 2018The speed at which markets react to political and economic headlines in an ALGO-driven world can create volatility that preys upon key levels. Today was a classic example as the long revered 200-day moving average in the E-mini S&P futures was violated and momentum moved quickly to the sell side. The S&Ps closed below the frequently tested long-term moving average of 2589.76 on a CQG continuation chart of the e-minis. In the last 30 minutes of trading at the New York Stock Exchange, there was a report that the Trump White House was pushing for a NAFTA overhaul deal within two weeks. The Mexican peso staged a late rally for it had been unable to withstand the intense selloff of the U.S. equity market. Several of the regular haven investments experienced rallies (YEN, GOLD, SILVER), but the U.S. Treasuries closed virtually unchanged as economic data reflected fears about underlying price pressures since ISM manufacturing prices rose.
Notes From Underground: The Same Old Song, With a different Beat (Since 2017 Be Gone)
January 4, 2018After a sharp selloff late on December 29 the market has regained its mojo and rallied 2%. While the first two days of trading for the European markets were not confirming the S&P rally, the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 rallied with the EURO STOXX 50 closing back above its 200-day moving average on Thursday. The consensus from Wall Street analysts is for emerging markets and Europe to be better alternatives to U.S. investment prospects. Many quality strategists believe the U.S. equity markets are stretched in its valuation while Europe’s recovery is gaining momentum and emerging economies should be the major beneficiary of a synchronized global expansion.
Notes From Underground: Beginning Of the End?
December 28, 2017Happy and healthy New Year to all of my readers! Thank you for another GREAT year of contributions to make this BLOG a voice of reason in an effort to undermine the accepted NARRATIVE of conventional media investment pabulum. Today, one of the more astute anchors sustained the nonsense that the ECB and Mario Draghi have a SINGLE MANDATE (inflation), which renders the ECB policy easier to decipher as the FED has its self-defined DUAL MANDATE. This narrative as opined by the mainstream analysts is JUST DEAD WRONG. When Mario Draghi seized control of European fiscal and monetary policy in 2012, he said, “WE will do whatever it takes to preserve the EURO ….” and there would be no TABOOS. The ECB’s MANDATE is UNLIMITED and OPEN-ENDED whiles Draghi works to sustain QE and NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. Economic data has no weight in thwarting the WILL of the ECB.This is going to be a major story in global finance 2018 as the Italians head to the polls.
Notes From Underground: A Few Quick Points
November 12, 2017Two things to think about as the new week begins. The German DAX put in a very rare technical formation as the futures made all-time highs last week and closed below the previous week’s LOWS by almost 0.75%. We have seen this formation in the S&Ps and Nasdaq 100 this year, which resulted in some momentary weakness in the stock markets. Every pundit on CNBC and Bloomberg has pushed the European equities as the better choice for developed market investors but this new signal raises a caution flag. So caution it is until we see if the market can follow through.
Notes From Underground: German Elections. The Sound of Complacency Shattering?
September 24, 2017I will start tonight’s BLOG with two very good comments from a long time reader and contributor GREEN AB who hails from Germany. Green has always provided great insight and though we don’t always agree I have great respect for his perspective. On Thursday he posted a very prescient forecast about today’s election and Sunday he followed with a post-election thoughts.