Posts Tagged ‘dot plot’

Notes From Underground: Dear Chairman Powell,

March 20, 2018

Wednesday brings the FOMC‘s interest rate decision. The CONSENSUS is for an increase of 25 basis points to 1.50%-1.75%. Chairman Powell, you will have a chance to explain the Fed’s decision as you engage in your first press conference 30 minutes after the announcement. The financial world will have the opportunity to assess whether you will follow the Yellen/Bernanke path of attempting to control markets or to be more respectful of the collective wisdom and allow price to be determined in the tradition of Western democratic capitalist markets. The FED chairman recently acknowledged that headwinds have become tailwinds, and, even more importantly, supported by Janet Yellen’s confidant, Governor Lael Brainard. The volte face by Brainard shook the markets into the belief that the FED would actually raise rates FOUR times or more in 2018. BUT IF I WERE YOU CHAIR POWELL I WOULD RAISE 50 BASIS POINTS TOMORROW (with this CAVEAT).

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Notes From Underground: The Sound Of Complacency Shattering

September 19, 2017

First, for all those in the Notes From Underground community who celebrate Rosh Hashanah, have a happy and healthy New Year. For those who don’t I also wish you a happy and healthy New Year. Thanks for your continued support and if I angered you with my thoughts I have to say it was not done to be hurtful but rather to provoke a high-quality discussion around issues in the realm of global-macro finance. When I listened to the Ray Dalio interview on CNBC today it was comforting to know that the mission of this BLOG is similar to what Dalio tries to accomplish with his employees. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND is not about PERSONAL VALIDATION but about discourse in the crucible of financial ideas, striving to refine the GOLD from the DROSS. Let’s hope the SHOFAR BLAST shatters the complacency of our static thoughts in all matters of our lives.

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Notes From Underground: Will Janet Yellen Paint It Black?

January 26, 2016

The market is in disarray as it anticipates tomorrow’s FOMC statement. Will it lean dovish? The turmoil in global markets is having negative impacts on capex and the wealth effect as global equity markets have dropped considerably since the December 16 rate increase. Do I believe that the 25 basis point rise is the catalyst for the destruction of household wealth? NO. But the FED is confronted with a worsening condition in terms of TOO MUCH DEBT IN A DECLINING PROFIT ENVIRONMENT. As Michael Pettis, Felix Zulauf and others have postulated for a very long time, too much debt on a balance only matters when the debt can’t be serviced. Zulauf and Jeffrey Gundlach have voiced concerns about the FED being irresponsible for raising rates as the global economy slows. Art Cashin, the great voice of reason and stability, has been on record for weeks predicting the FED will lower rates to ZERO before the market ever sees ONE PERCENT.

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Notes From Underground: Fed Up With the FED

June 17, 2015

More of the same from the mouth of the FOMC. Monetary policy has replaced fiscal policy as the “only game in town” and this has ENABLED Janet Yellen to be the final arbiter of all things in¬†financial valuations. The concept of the dual mandate has morphed into a triple mandate as the turmoil of the global financial system weighs heavily upon the Fed’s ultimate decision to raise interest rates a mighty 25¬†basis points. Ms. Yellen sits upon the throne of financial power wielding a trident as she decides the fate of a “global sea of liquidity.”

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Notes From Underground: Is Charlie Evans a Lonesome Dove?

January 8, 2015

Tomorrow is the release of the U.S. and Canadian Employment reports, which are usually days of increased market volatility. Usually, Notes From Underground provide some insight into possible market movement based on attaining a sense of investor consensus and putting that into perspective based on relevant indicators and pre-release price action across a wide variety of variables.

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