Posts Tagged ‘dot plots’

Notes From Underground: The Week That Was …?

March 26, 2018

What a week last week turned out to be (and that was if you just followed the headlines). Tariffs are taxing the global financial markets as they try to guesstimate the economic impact from the effect of tit-for-tat responses to the initial U.S. measures efforts to gain support for dealing with Chinese trade violations. The FOMC added to market volatility as the suspense over three or four rate hikes still impacts the DOT PLOTS. The Bank of England confused markets as they voted 7-2 to sustain the current interest rate policy, even though consensus assumed a 25 basis point increase. By week’s end the confusion reverberating around the globe did serious damage to equity markets as the S&PS were down almost 6 percent on the week and the European stock indices continued their continued their selloff, making them the weakest of all regions (in contravention to the punditry’s call for the buying of European stocks).


Notes From Underground: Is It a Nehru or NAIRU?

February 9, 2016

Tomorrow begins the semi-annual testimony of the Fed chair before the illustrious houses of legislature of the United States. Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow and the Senate Banking Committee Thursday. Chair Yellen will read the same prepared speech before each Committee and then each member of the Committee gets a preset allotted time to ask questions. (Please note, Yellen’s testimony will be released at 7:30am CST tomorrow.) The chair will dodge predictions but will put forward the most recent DOT PLOTS and FOMC statement as the backdrop to her testimony. THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FED CHAIR SOFTLY CRITICIZES CONGRESS FOR NOT DOING MORE TO PUT FORWARD SOME TYPE OF FISCAL STIMULUS. Chuck Schumer may believe the FED is the only game in town but Chair Yellen will plead that the FOMC cannot be the sole stimulant to a moribund economy, especially with the headwinds blowing around the globe.


Notes From Underground: The Worst Press Conference Since Greenspan … Oh He Didn’t Give Press Conferences

June 18, 2014

Professor Yellen gets a RED D for this press conference. It was an effort in obfuscation it would deserve an A+ but Chair Yellen has been the biggest promoter of the Fed providing transparency and clarity to its policy decisions. Even Steve Liesman was critical of the Yellen for failing to answer his question on inflation and the Fed’s tolerance for allowing the PCE to rise above the 2 percent threshold. Several questions from reporters were follow-ups from previously asked questions that were not answered. Greg Ip from the ECONOMIST asked a question  about financial stability and Yellen danced around as if she was a student of Mario Draghi. Again, another journalist had to repeat  the question. The best direct question was from a woman who asked Chair Yellen about the expectation for wage growth to outpace inflation. Yellen admitted that she was waiting for households to get a gain in real take-home pay. Wages could grow at a more rapid pace then inflation  but if inflation were rising faster than wages she would worry about economic growth.