Posts Tagged ‘euribor futures’

Notes From Underground: The Soft Bias of Low Expectations

February 3, 2022

Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month so it is known on trading desks as UNEMPLOYMENT Friday — or Unenjoyment Day for some — as volatility will reign in the early part of the trading day. As we have discussed ad nauseum volatility is the predominant theme as all the world’s central banks discuss the removal of QE, as well as raising the cost of money through returning nominal rates from a steep NEGATIVE REAL YIELD to some normal zero or hopefully a POSITIVE REAL YIELD. But headline inflation reveals that all central banks have a great task ahead in an effort to reach what POWELL and others refer to as normalcy.


Notes From Underground: N-O-T-H-I-N-G … Thats What the ECB Means to Me

September 3, 2014

The wires are burning with the possibility of the ECB moving forward with a quantitative easing announcement. I would give it a 1% chance, or, in options pricing terms, A CABINET BID. It is too early for President Draghi to impose a QE plan for next month the European authority reveals its asset quality review (AQR), a stress test by any other name. The ECB would be wasting its ammunition until it sees how the market reacts to new information on the health of European banks and thus the European financial system. If the results are as dismal as I believe, Draghi will want to initiate his asset-backed security program so as to create a market mechanism for relieving the banks of their problem loans. The market maker for these ABS instruments will be the ECB as they will be the only buyers willing to pay inflated prices for NONperforming loans. High prices will need to be paid to keep the banks solvent for if the haircuts on the troubled loans is too large the banks will collapse.


Notes From Underground: Central Bank Poker

April 3, 2013

The initial check with no move on interest rates was offered by the Reserve Bank of Australia as it held its overnight lending rate steady at Tuesday’s meeting. The Aussie 2/10 curve flattened a bit after the meeting and the Aussie two-year note continues to trade at a lower interest rate than the official overnight rate of 3%, yielding just 2.88%. Many readers have asked about the impact of yield curves on equity prices and I will deal with this on an ongoing basis. For an immediate example, if the Aussie curve continues to stay flat I will venture to say that over the course of the year the Australian stock market will underperform. That doesn’t mean that it won’t have synchronized rallies with other developed markets, just by year’s end it will underperform other equity markets. If the RBA acts to cut rates and reset the curve on a more positive slope, the outcome, of course, should be of a better equity performance. To paraphrase Max Planck: Good trading and analysis advances one funeral at a time.


Notes From Underground: There Must Be Some way Out Of Here, Said The Joker to the Thief (Bob Dylan)

March 19, 2013

Yes, another day and the markets had to try to understand the significance of Cyprus. The newswires were filled with analysts claiming this was a “tempest in a teapot” and that the doomsayers were blowing the Cypriot problem into a pseudo crisis. Again, a world that is highly leveraged is subject to a “single spark starting a prairie fire” and the fear of contagion and an electronic bank run are very real if the major policy makers don’t invoke the trust of the electorate and investors. The perceived actions by IMF Director Lagarde (the joker) and the liquidationist mentality being thrust from Berlin and Chancellor Merkel (the thief) have created a situation where European bank depositors are nervous, especially so in the peripheral banks. THE MAIN COMPONENT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE MOVE IN THE FRONT MONTH EURIBOR CONTRACTS,AS THE JUNE 2013 FELL 10 TICKS ON A DAY WHEN OTHER INTEREST RATES WERE LOWER. NOTHING SAYS BANK FEARS THEN A COUNTER MOVE IN THE EURIBOR AND LIBOR MARKETS. An increase in bank yields with equity markets falling is a sign about the fear in the bank deposits market. It seems that the policy makers that are leading the previously “revered” TROIKA (IMF,European Commission and ECB)┬áhave initiated fear for a mere pittance.


Notes From Underground: The BOE and ECB Let Us in On Their Secrets

January 9, 2013

Thursday brings the announcements from two of the major rate setters in Europe: the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. First the BOE will announce at 6:00 a.m. CST and consensus says the bank will keep rates steady at 0.50% and the QE program at 375 billion pounds. Though the U.K. economy is soft, Governor Mervyn King will maintain a steady path so to keep his options available in case the global economy begins a new downturn. The present BOE head is retiring July 1 so it would be prudent to let his successor have as many tools to work with in a new regime.