Posts Tagged ‘France’

Notes From Underground: Things Are On the Boil

February 7, 2019

There are so many things causing angst in the global markets. There was news out of France on Thursday that the government was recalling its envoy to Rome because Italian politicians met with the yellow vest movement. To President Macron I offer this history lesson: In 2011-12 French President Nicolas Sarkozy–with the cooperation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel–crushed the Italian bond market in an effort to remove Prime Minister Berlusconi. The Eurocrats in Brussels parachuted in a preferred bureaucrat, Mario Monti, in an effort to get Italian politicians to halt the fiscal bleeding. The French have a great deal of audacity in complaining about Italian meddling, especially as Salvini/Maio have a legitimate reason: the upcoming European Parliamentary elections.

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Notes From Underground: Germany and France Codify the Premise of Europe

January 22, 2019

In a desperate attempt to deflect from the damage to his presidency, Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday codified what Bernard Connolly has written about for 25 years. As Charles de Gaulle supposedly said to Konrad Adenauer: “Europe is France and Germany, the rest trimmings.” In a resurrection of European history, Angela Merkel and Macron signed a new Treaty of Aachen. While the treaty language is vapid, the symbolism cannot be minimized. Germany and France promise to come to each other’s defense if attacked while also promising to work for a more unified financial and fiscal system.

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Notes From Underground: Markets Are Rounding Third and Sliding Into Home

December 16, 2018

As we head into the final two weeks of the year, the global equity markets are “sliding into home.” Equities sold off again on Friday as the Chinese tariff saga is failing to provide support to the market. Weekend news conveyed the idea that the market was reacting to this week’s FED meeting and the very high probability of another increase in the central bank’s target range. This is a stretch because investors have been aware of the FED‘s limitations under its own “forward guidance,” trapped into a rate hike for fear of spooking the market if no increase was decided.

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Notes From Underground: Going Where Others Fear to Tread

October 3, 2018

In a surprise visit with Rick Santelli on Wednesday, we picked up where we left off in our discussion about rising interest rates. This time we had live ammunition as the data releases revealed suggested robustness in the U.S. economy. Now that the “accommodative” language was removed from the FOMC statement, Chairman Powell will have the luxury of FLEXIBILITY in reacting to economic signals. The markets responded to Powell’s new policy by sending interest rates higher, taking out long-time technical resistance on the U.S. 10- and 30-year Treasuries. Is the rise in yields sustainable? Friday’s unemployment report will provide a powerful test for the markets because if wages increase more than anticipated there will be renewed selling all along the curve.

Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss the rise in Treasury yields.

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Notes From Underground: Around the World With Yra + Rick

September 20, 2018

On Thursday Rick Santelli pushed and prodded and as a result, we were able to travel from Japan to Europe in an effort to discuss some of the more pressing issues confronting the global macro world. First, we stopped in Japan to discuss how the BOJ and Governor Kuroda will be able to extricate itself from five years of QQE which has seen the BOJ accumulate Japanese debt and equities. Of course the end game is to reach the self-imposed inflation level of 2 percent that has proved to be an agonizing level to achieve. As a reminder, when a nation is saddled with huge debts the best relief is to be found in inflation, which results in an ultimate money illusion as debts are paid back with an ever-depreciated currency.

Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss global policy.

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Notes From Underground: A Conversation With Bonugli and Ronni Stoeferle

June 10, 2018

On June 6, I had a discussion with the Financial Repression Authority host Richard Bonugli and the highly respected Ronni Stoeferle. We covered myriad of global financial and political concerns as we tried to provide the foundation for profitable opportunities via in-depth analysis of these fragilities.

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Notes From Underground: The Magician of Frankfurt Will Be Called to Answer

May 22, 2018

We’ve been discussing the problems in the Italian debt market at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND for many years but with the Five Star/Lega coalition coming into government many of the issues that were once theoretical are now an increasing possibility. The Five Star group is openly proposing a debt restructuring for Italy in the hopes of spurring growth and improving the Italian unemployment situation. Economic growth in Italy has lagged the developed world economies and none more so then its neighbor, Germany.

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Notes From Underground: Is Macron a Moron?

September 12, 2017

On September 7, I had the pleasure of chatting with Richard Bonugli of the Financial Repression Authority, covering topics previously discussed on Notes From Underground. The podcast allows for a much deeper analysis of topics covered here (and usually over a shorter span). Enjoy the conversation, and, as usual, please follow-up with questions so we can all benefit from the intelligence of Notes From Underground readers.

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Notes From Underground: Santelli and Harris Down By the Schoolyard

May 9, 2017

This is the most recent CNBC hit with Rick Santelli as we try to educate the world in another three-minute segment. This unrehearsed spot attempts to dig deep into the financial issues confronting traders and investors. The discussion about France is a continuation from the Notes From Underground post I wrote last night. I stress that the period ahead for Emmanuel Macron is going to be difficult, especially if the center-right wins the Parliament and thus the prime minister position. This summer will be fraught with street demonstrations as the Left moves to prevent any installation of German-initiated fiscal austerity and labor market reform. In typical French political fashion, labor and student groups are warning against Macron governing by decree and bypassing Parliament.

(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss French elections.)

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Notes From Underground: A Financial Repression Authority (FRA) Podcast With Peter Boockvar

February 12, 2017

It is a great honor to feature another podcast with Peter Boockvar for The Financial Repression Authority. Peter is certainly one of the regular commentators that I watch with great interest whenever he is on Bloomberg, Fox Business or CNBC. I think we cover much of the global financial landscape. While it may run long, it is a lot easier than reading a 20,000-word blog post. Pour the scotch and give it a listen.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO THE PODCAST EPISODE!

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