Posts Tagged ‘Gilts’

Notes From Underground: The Paroxysms of Brexit Polls, Or Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

June 13, 2016

This is a week loaded with data. The U.S. retail sales numbers are reported tomorrow and it will take a tremendous increase in consumer purchases to put any pressure on the June FOMC meeting to raise rates. Currently, the market consensus is for a 0.4% increase in core sales and I would venture a guess that it will take an increase of more 1.0% to move the needle on any talk of June being on the table. There are several British inflation numbers released tomorrow morning but with the Brexit vote next Thursday and a Bank of England meeting this Thursday there will be no change in BOE policy. Wednesday of course brings the FED and again the retail sales number would have to be very robust to move the FOMC. It ain’t going to happen. Wednesday night and Thursday morning brings the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank into focus. These two banks are more interesting as the recent strength in the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen provide some rationale for each of these banks to increase monetary stimulus to drive the respective currencies lower . However, both the BOJ and SNB will be careful not to roil the markets ahead of the BREXIT vote. Yet the Japanese seemed to be perturbed over the G-7 signaling its anger at the Japanese for its previous efforts to weaken the YEN. The Japanese authorities are not happy with the recent cut in Korean interest rates which have resulted in a weakened Korean won.

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Notes From Underground: As I PONDER WEAK AND WEARY

May 17, 2012

The market action has rendered this trader/analyst very weak and weary … quoth the trader nevermore. When FUNDAMENTALS MEET A DELEVERAGING SET IN MOTION IT IS ENOUGH TO LEAVE ONE WEAK AND WEARY. Every conversation I have had for three days is: What is wrong with the GOLD and how can it not rally with all the problems that the global financial system is facing? The corollary to the GOLD IS OF COURSE THE GLOBAL BOND MARKETS. Today, the SCHATZ traded down to three basis points. The U.S. 2/10 yield curve is undergoing a severe flattening as the curve closed at around 143 BASIS POINTS TODAY. The buying of high quality DEBT is indicative of a movement to havens coupled with the need for QUALITY COLLATERAL FOR THE REPO MARKET.

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Notes From Underground: The Meaninglessness of IOWA and Other Thoughts

January 4, 2012

While the mainstream media desires to fill time it seems that Iowa has become less important this year as a barometer of the national mood. The agrarian sector of the economy is very healthy and with their stomachs full, the people of Iowa can ponder and think and be much more philosophical in terms of candidate selection. Rick Santorum can play to the high-mindedness of the social conservative agenda because in Iowa those voters have two loaves of bread under each arm. It is much tougher to be concerned about the ideological nature of life when you are fighting in a line to pick up an unemployment check or applying for a job.

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Notes From Underground: SPANISH MISSTEPS TRIP UP ITALIAN DEBT

November 15, 2011

TO OUR READERS: WE’RE REISSUING LAST NIGHT’S PIECE AS MANY OF YOU DID NOT RECEIVE THE POST BECAUSE OF A WORDPRESS GLITCH. ENJOY!

The DEBT markets in Europe renewed the sombre tone of a collapse of Italy and Spain. In the early part of the European trading day, the Italian BTP was holding on to last week’s gains and outperforming the BUNDS to the upside. As the day wound to a close, the “negative” news out of the Merkel’s CDU conference pressured the DEBT markets as new fears arose that the German Chancellor had her party’s support for the jettisoning of some of the weaker peripherals.

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Notes From Underground: SPANISH MISSTEPS TRIP UP ITALIAN DEBT

November 14, 2011

The DEBT markets in Europe renewed the sombre tone of a collapse of Italy and Spain. In the early part of the European trading day, the Italian BTP was holding on to last week’s gains and outperforming the BUNDS to the upside. As the day wound to a close, the “negative” news out of the Merkel’s CDU conference pressured the DEBT markets as new fears arose that the German Chancellor had her party’s support for the jettisoning of some of the weaker peripherals.

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Notes From Underground: They Loaded 275 Billion Pounds and What Did They Get?

October 6, 2011

(Another day older and deeper in debt.)

No surprises from the ECB as they held rates at 1.5% as Trichet ended his reign at the helm of European banking by paying homage to the FONZ: Never admit that you were wrong. The ECB did announce that it was extending its policy of providing liquidity to EUROZONE banks at extremely low rates for a period of 12 and 13 months in an effort to prevent any immediate bank run. Also, the ECB announced that it would buy up to 40 billion euro of covered bonds, but that should not be a big deal for covered bonds are the best collateral so many banks will probably not be running for funding posting the highest rated debt.

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Notes From Underground: IF ALL THE DATA WAS POSITIVE, WHY WAS THE DOLLAR THE ODD MAN OUT?

February 1, 2011

Last night the RBA, as expected, left rates unchanged at 4.75 percent. The statement released after the meeting was deemed semiHAWKISH as the RBA noted the strength of India and China. The Australian central bank also opined that the massive Australian floods would result in pressure on wages as the rebuilding and repairing would bid away construction workers from the extremely buoyant mining sector. Some analysts had been bearish the AUSSIE DOLLAR based on lost productivity but GOVERNOR STEVENS ended that outlook.

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Notes From Underground: British Currency Gets Pounded

December 16, 2010

Yes, the dollar rallied Wednesday as the U.S. Treasury curve continued to steepen but European and British news was very negative. The potential downgrade of Spain and German Parliamentary battles roiled the European currencies. In Germany, politics are being played out to see if the economic locomotive of Europe is going to be more European or more German. A Financial Times op-ed by Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Peer Steinbruck set the tone for the battle lines. These are political heavyweights as Steinmeierwas foreign minister and Peer Steinbruck was finance minister in the first Merkel administration so their voices are louder than others.

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Notes From Underground: As Europe tires we are tired of Europe

May 12, 2010

We have been Europe-focused for more than five months and while important, and yes, even market shaking, we must remember that there are many other areas of concern and interest on the global stage. The Eurocrats have bought themselves a few nights of sleep with the robust package cobbled together during the weekend, but as the acrimony and ill will continue to ferment we will always have Paris. There are reports that Sarkozy is feeling the victor as he believes he vanquished the ECB and allowed the inflationists to gain the advantage over the German liquidators. Many in Germany and other Northern European countries fervently believe that the profligate nations should suffer the pain of balance sheet reduction.

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