Posts Tagged ‘Glenn Stevens’

Notes From Underground: A Question of Imbalance

May 3, 2016

Yesterday, it was the issue of imbalances and the need for currency manipulation as seen through the eyes of a hegemon in decline. Today there was more criticism of German intransigence as Mario Draghi was pushing back against criticisms from Wolfgang Schaeuble that ECB policy was igniting the fire of the radical right. President Draghi said the ECB was correct in its policies, and current and trade surplus nations were at fault for the continued economic malaise for not embarking on large fiscal stimulus programs. Mario Draghi is lashing out against the German passion for fiscal austerity and labor restructuring, but the ECB President seems to forget the golden rule: He who has the gold makes the rules. I ASK MY READERS TO PONDER THE QUESTION (AGAIN): Who guarantees the balance sheet of the European Central Bank?

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Notes From Underground: The FED … Unsafe at Any Ultra-Low Rate

November 30, 2015

Last week, in the middle of gorging our material senses, Janet Yellen was responding to a letter from Ralph Nader, a well known consumer advocate who took the Bernanke and Yellen to task for keeping interest rates too low, resulting in asset inflation for Wall Street and the very wealthy while MAIN STREET was “rewarded” with zero interest rates and almost NO returns on passive, low-risk credit channels. Yellen repeated her third grade teacher tutorial about how savers have indirectly have benefited because of the bounty of jobs available for them and their children and grandchildren and they should stop complaining because home prices have increased to pre-crisis levels in many parts of the country–all because of the wonderful work of the FED and its QE programs. (Even as Carmen Reinhart and other top-level economists have criticized the FED for prolonging FINANCIAL REPRESSION in order to insure against inflation staying below the FED‘s self-imposed mandate of 2 percent.)

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Notes From Underground: Tsipras–1; Merkel–0; and the Sycophants of Access Journalism Prattle On

July 6, 2015

The outcome of the Greek referendum surprised all, even those who believed a NO vote was imminent. As NOTES has written ad nauseam, the referendum card was the nuclear option for Prime Minister Tsipras and he played it for a resounding impact. Chancellor Merkel was furious with Tsipras for having the audacity to challenge the EU elite by going to the people and testing the concept of the general will. The financial media and its purveyors of pabulum could only see this move by the Greeks in its impact upon the equity markets–and marginally the global bond markets. The outcome for the debt markets is a mixed bag for some bonds rally while the debt of smaller peripheral economies take a hit as the risk-off trade is initiated to the possible negative fallout from the lopsided Greek vote of NO.

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Notes From Underground: BIS Warns About “Euphoric” Markets

July 1, 2014

The big news story from the weekend has been the warning from the central bankers’ banker, the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), that financial markets have become “… detached from the reality of a lingering post-crisis malaise, as it called for governments to ditch policies that risk stoking unsustainable asset booms.” The BIS annual report warns about leaving ultra-low interest rates for too long a period. The Financial Times article reported what I consider to be the most significant piece of the report: “Particularly for countries in the late stages of financial booms, the trade-off is now between the risk of bringing FORWARD THE DOWNWARD LEG OF THE CYCLE AND THAT OF SUFFERING A BIGGER BUST LATER ON” (emphasis mine).

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Notes From Underground: The Day Is Upon Us … Be Patient and Don’t Act With “Water-Like Impetuosity”

December 17, 2013

Tread lightly into the throes of Fedspeak for first comes the FOMC statement a 1 p.m. CST followed by the last press conference of Chairman Bernanke’s term at 1:30 p.m. The markets are going to be volatile as confusion reigns in all asset classes. Today, the Treasury market was trying to reassert a steepening bias into the 5/30 yield curve as the FIVES were strong and the 30-YEAR YIELDS were rising. However, by day’s end the 5/30 retraced and closed unchanged on the day (if you trade the curve in futures terms the ratio is almost three FIVES to one THIRTY-year bond). Consensus has changed and the bias is for a tapering the question is: HOW LARGE? I have assumed a $20 billion tapering and I will stick with that “bold” conjecture. It is important to listen for any language of forward guidance on the unemployment threshold for if the Fed were to hint at lowering the 6.5% threshold, markets will reverse course, especially the S&Ps and DOW, which have spent the last few days in correction mode.

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Notes From Underground: My Response To Larry Summers

May 7, 2013

First, the RBA finally cut the lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. By the close of the market, the Aussie dollar remained weak as some were surprised by the move. As I promised my readers of NOTES it is the 2/10 yield curve where the indicator of further currency and bank action will be found. The 2/10 steepened a slight three points, but the action ahead will be the key. Failure to take out recent steepener highs will be an indicator that the RBA has more work to do if it wishes to give a boost to the Australian economy.

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Notes From Underground: The Biggest Loser If The Fiscal Cliff is Activated? Ben Bernanke’s Fed.

December 3, 2012

It seems that if the Washington politicos fail to reach a resolution on preventing a fiscal crisis, the biggest loser will be the FED. The U.S. central bank is on record as pushing for continued monetary ease as long as unemployment remains unexpectedly high. The recent definition as forwarded by some Fed Governors and Presidents is around the 6.25% rate of unemployment. If the fiscal cliff is realized, projections are for the jobless rate to rise to between 9.5 and 10.0%. The question for the global financial markets will be: What is the FED‘s response going to be in an effort to counteract the renewed contraction in the U.S. economy?

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Notes From Underground: At the End of Q1, Global Equity Markets Are Floating on a Sea of Liquidity

April 1, 2012

The tale of the first quarter tape is in and evidenced by the large gains of the equity markets, global investors have benefited from the sea of liquidity provided by the CENTRAL BANKS OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD. Global stock markets have been calmed by the massive liquidity injections provided by the BOJ, ECB, FED and BOE.The German DAX closed the quarter up more than 15%. The long dormant NIKKEI was up almost 20% powered, by the new inflation mandate of the BOJ/MOF; and, of course, the S&Ps were up almost 12%, while the tech-ladened NASDAQ climbed more than 20%.

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Notes From Underground: IF ALL THE DATA WAS POSITIVE, WHY WAS THE DOLLAR THE ODD MAN OUT?

February 1, 2011

Last night the RBA, as expected, left rates unchanged at 4.75 percent. The statement released after the meeting was deemed semiHAWKISH as the RBA noted the strength of India and China. The Australian central bank also opined that the massive Australian floods would result in pressure on wages as the rebuilding and repairing would bid away construction workers from the extremely buoyant mining sector. Some analysts had been bearish the AUSSIE DOLLAR based on lost productivity but GOVERNOR STEVENS ended that outlook.

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