Posts Tagged ‘gold/Swiss’

Notes From Underground: “A Single Spark Can Start A Prairie Fire” (Mao, 1930)

January 11, 2016

You don’t have to be a weather man to know which way the wind is blowing, or so says Bob Dylan. As long as all things are emanating out of China it may be the time to dust off the sayings of Mao for as the talking heads are reminding us daily: “The East Wind Is Prevailing Over the West” in all things financial. THE PROBLEM FOR ME IS I DON’T ACCEPT THAT VIEW AND AM IN THE CAMP OF FORMER DALLAS FED PRESIDENT RICHARD FISHER that all roads lead to the FED and certainly the European Union for providing the tinder for a financial prairie fire. There has been so much volatility during the first six trading days of the year it is difficult to get a handle on what is  algo-driven non-fundamental and what may be the commencement of a change in previous momentum trades. Today I will go through a list of POTENTIAL SPARKS TO IGNITE THE  FLAMES OF A FINANCIAL FIRE so that we can be aware of what constitutes  a genuine change in momentum:


Notes From Underground: Has the Fed Potentially Created a Trap For Itself??? (Maybe)

May 13, 2014

As the talk turns to concern about inflation in the U.S. and possibly the U.K., we must ask ourselves a question that will be our focus for at least the next six months.


Notes From Underground: The DREADS of the Redemption Song

December 19, 2012

It was only a year ago that the PRECIOUS METALS were laboring under the continued selling of GOLD and SILVER as the John Paulson hedge funds were liquidating long positions to meet the huge amount of redemptions by long-time investors exiting the decade’s best performing FUNDS. In a repeat, Morgan Stanley announced today that it was redeeming its investors out of Paulson’s two largest funds after another year of questionable performance. In today’s world where one hedge fund can hold massive positions, divestment by disgruntled investors can initiate massive corrections. In 1980, when the Hunt Brothers caused great turmoil in the silver markets, they had a mere BILLION DOLLARS to play with (the Paulson funds control close to $15 billion under management.) As traders and investors it’s our job to be cognizant of all the animals in the jungle. When the elephants retrace their steps from the watering hole, small animals can get crushed (Niederhoffer).


Notes From Underground: The FED Goes From Quantitative to Qualitative … You Do the Math

December 13, 2012

Well, the famed modeler from M.I.T. has finally admitted that he has been an avid reader of Notes From Underground and in the world of global macro finance, 2+2=5. The FOMC statement was a surrender to the work of Michael Woodford as was pre-released in a Janet Yellen speech a few weeks ago. The FED will give great credence to a 6.5% unemployment and a 2% inflation threshold, give or take a 0.5%  discretionary prerogative. The 6.5% unemployment threshold is also subject to FED discretion for it seems to depend on whether or not the labor participation rate is increasing while the unemployment rate declines.


Notes From Underground: Somebody Please Cancel Silvio Berlusconi’s Viagara Prescription

December 6, 2012

Due to the availability of virility enhancers, the Italian political arena is plagued by billionaires who still believe they remain relevant. The ability to sustain an erection does not make you politically astute. Today’s effort by Silvio Berlusconi to undermine the Monti government led to a selloff in the Italian debt markets which caused 10-year rates to rise 13 basis points. Mr. Berlusconi didn’t want to bring the present government down but merely wanted to exhibit his relevance to the Italian political establishment. What the Greek debt problems couldn’t do, a 76-year-old man with a bottle of Viagra was able to accomplish. Elections are going to be held soon and the Monti coalition will be called to account. Now with all the problems confronting the peripheral governments the attempts of a disgraced former prime minister to prove his manhood is just an exhibition of the absurd. Pay no attention to the man with unnatural bulge in his ego.


Notes From Underground: Sarkozy and Merkel … Is That All There Is??? (Peggy Lee)

August 16, 2011

The markets were all waiting for a major statement regarding the European political situation and its effect on the financial system. It wound up being the most banal as it makes me wonder what leaders of the two dominant nations in the EU held back from the media and markets. The main point was the announcement about a financial transaction tax, but to say there were no specifics about the tax given would be hyperbole. The markets were expecting some statement about an increase of funds for the EFSF, but again, nothing. The EURO was initially sold but by day’s end the damage to the currency was less than minimal.