Posts Tagged ‘Greek bailout’

Notes From Underground: A Few Bits of Information In Support of Some Previous Notes

August 20, 2013

First, Bloomberg News [BN] ran a story yesterday, “Spain Lenders’ Bad Loan Ratio Reached Record 11.61%.” This is up from 9.65% a year earlier. All we continue to read and hear from the press and financial pundits is how the Spanish economy has turned the corner and it is time to buy the Spanish banks and Spanish sovereign debt. The non-performing loans are a problem in any economy, but the 25%-plus unemployment rate makes the NPL data a much greater problem. Again, I’d rather miss the first part of a European rally than get caught when the perceptions fail to become reality.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Global Macro In a World of Rising Big Data

August 12, 2013

The new buzz word from the realm of the “talking heads” is BIG DATA. When we mention FACEBOOK and the other social media companies, the discussion leads to big data. The issue of Snowden and the NSA is the U.S. Government’s collection of vast amounts of personal data on U.S. citizens in the name of national security and preventing possible acts of terror. Ultimately, the discussion is about the ability of computers to search through ginormous amounts of data and find patterns that will reveal threatening behavior. In the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, Kenneth Cukier and Viktor Mayer-Schoenberger wrote an article, “The Rise of Big Data.” It is an essay adapted from a book they wrote. Three key points are outlined:

1.Collect a lot of data rather than rely on small samples;

2. Not be concerned about how pristine the data may be and through algorithms sort through vast amounts of data regardless how messy it may be because quantity is more important than quality;

3. (THIS IS KEY FOR THE REALM OF GLOBAL MACRO FINANCIAL WORLD) “IN MANY INSTANCES,WE WILL NEED TO GIVE UP OUR QUEST TO DISCOVER THE CAUSE OF THINGS,IN RETURN FOR ACCEPTING CORRELATIONS.”

(more…)