Posts Tagged ‘hawks’

Notes From Underground: Consensus is the Last Refuge of Cowards (Michael Crichton)

April 27, 2016

Today the Fed delivered as expected, leaving rates unchanged and the market conjecturing about the sincerity of the FED’s data dependency (again). Some analysts and algo readers initially thought the FOMC┬ástatement was “hawkish” because the FED removed most of the rhetoric about the headwinds of international global and financial developments. I say most because the Fed left in “net exports have been soft.” This is either a concern about the lack of global growth and/or an overly strong U.S. dollar. It is MY OPINION that the Fed removed the language about international financial risks as an offering to the HAWKS as a way to get consensus.

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Notes From Underground: WAS BERNANKE HAWKING A HAWKISH OUTLOOK???

June 22, 2011

I feel like I’m the odd analyst out in that Bernanke failed to impress upon me that he is a DOVE in HAWKS’ feathers. Reading the FOMC statement over and over leaves me wondering just what made the statement so strong an anti-inflation stance. The FOMC release reiterated that the FED is relying on closing the output gaps, “including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.” This is not the musings of an inflation HAWK.

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Notes From Underground: The Transitory Nature of Harsh Rhetoric

April 28, 2011

Between every FOMC meeting we hear from Plosser, Fisher and others that the FED needs to reign in QE2 and start reversing the huge amount of liquidity that it has added to the financial system. The airwaves are filled with the dissenting voices of the “monetary hawks” proclaiming their fidelity to edicts of responsible monetary policy. However, come the scheduled meetings, the “HAWKS” become detaloned as they fall prey to the soft coos of the “doves.” It seems that entrance into the FED’s citadel requires that one must leave individualistic thought in your home district and resolve to join the consensus.

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Notes From Underground: Bill Dudley refills the PUNCHBOWL (or why New York bankers shouldn’t Head the NY FED)

April 3, 2011

All was right with the markets as the unemployment data was released and for one of the few times in recent memory, the Wall Street analysts, ADP and others were right on target. Private sector job growth continued to improve, and the state and local governments were continuing layoffs to try to balance its budgets. The softest part of the employment data was the average hourly earnings, which were FLAT. This implies that employers are under no stress to lift wages with the unemployment rate at 8.8 percent. The markets took the data in stride as the DOLLAR was rallying on the positive data. With the previous day’s comments from various FED presidents, there appeared some need to lift some of the SHORT DOLLAR positions. The short-end of the yield curve was under pressure, aiding the DOLLAR RALLY and the selloff in the precious METALS. The equities seemed to be basking in the perfect storm for no WAGE GAINS, a mere threat of 1 percent FED FUNDS with an improving JOBS PICTURE doesn’t get any better for the EQUITIES.

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