Posts Tagged ‘Hillary Clinton’

Notes From Underground: Comey, Comey, Comey, Comey, Take Another Piece of My Wallet, Now Baby

November 7, 2016

FBI director James Comey played the bureaucratic card again when he released yet another pre-election report on the Clinton files. Comey issued an all-clear on any sort of criminal prosecution involving the newest Clinton file leaks. It’s interesting that the FBI director issued the letter three hours before the opening of the U.S. electronic exchanges, but as expected, the global equity experienced a relief rally in anticipation of a Hillary Clinton victory.

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Notes From Underground: Measuring Economic and Political Outcomes; Analytics Yes, Flawed Constructs No

November 6, 2016

We are in the period when financial markets are depending on measurements of human actions to proscribe probabilities for profitable investment. On Friday, the jobs report reflected the measurement of labor statistical data in order to achieve some forward-looking view on the health of the U.S. economy. The jobs data was a mixed result as nonfarm payrolls in the private sector were weaker than consensus but the important average hourly earnings (AHE) increased at a robust 0.4%, which SHOULD give the hawks on the FOMC a push to raise rates. But of course one month’s robust data is certainly not a trend. Chair Yellen has been laying the ground work for the data running hotter for longer so 0.4% is a positive but there is room for further gains in wage increases. Besides, if the wage gains are coming out of corporate profits all the better from the perspective of a career labor economist.

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Notes From Underground: In Preparation For Tomorrow’s FOMC, The Vote Is Key

November 1, 2016

There is a very MINUTE chance of any FED action ahead of the November 8 presidential election. The polls are far too close and as previously stated only if Hillary had an insurmountable lead would the FED raise rates in an effort to regain some of its lost credibility. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE FED STATEMENT WILL BE THE FOMC VOTE. The previous meeting saw a shift to 7-3 for maintaining the current policy with all the dissenters being regional Federal Reserve presidents. Stanley Fischer has been–the Governor who speaks loudly but carries a small stick–failed to bring action to his frequent speeches about raising the fed funds rate. If the Fed vice chair were to bolt from the unified group of FOMC Governors and dissent against Yellen and Brainard that would lead to a more hawkish view on FED policy. I THINK THE VOTE WILL BE 8-2 as Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will move back to supporting Yellen .

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Notes From Underground: In a tribute to the Chantays–PIPELINE

January 2, 2011

No major stories this New Year’s weekend. Dilma Rousseff was sworn in as the new president of Brazil and spoke to the need to continue the policies of LULA. She said her influence will be on battling inflation but the markets will watch her cabinet’s actions as she has also voiced concern about the rapid appreciation of the REAL, as the Brazilian currency has appreciated 39 percent during the last two years. The strong REAL has begun to hamper the Brazilian equity markets as it was up¬† a mere 1.25 percent in a year that global commodities were the star performer. Brazilian debt markets are anticipating rates to rise this year so our eyes will be on the Brazilian central bank and watching to see how aggressive it is in stemming inflationary pressures.

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Notes From Underground:Geithner is in China, soft peddling U.S. anger and the economic impact of the European debt crisis

May 23, 2010

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have headed to China for scheduled discussions under the aegis of Strategic and Economic Dialogue¬†(SED). Geithner praised China for shifting to a more domestic demand-based economy rather than one based solely on exports. He cited the huge shift in China’s overall trade surplus as China has been importing more goods from its Asian neighbors. Hillary Clinton went to hand out stuffed teddy bears to Chinese children, adding another soft touch to U.S. policy.

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