Posts Tagged ‘interest rates’

Notes From Underground: In An Algo-Driven World Headlines Matter

December 3, 2017

Friday: Dateline. INACCURATE NEWS.

There is GOLD to be found in the digital world where headlines can move financial markets faster than your eyes can blink or your brain can separate fact from fiction. ABC investigative journalist Brian Ross published a report that said President Trump asked Michael Flynn to reach out to Russia during the campaign. The network was forced to correct the story, clarifying that the request was carried out during the transition period, and suspended Ross. President Trump tweeted that investors harmed by ABC’s action should sue for damages. Trump may actually have a legitimate opinion but I believe the President’s Tweets carry the same litmus test.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Canada Casts Aside the Liberal Party as Ignatieff Rolled the Dice and Crapped Out

May 3, 2011

The election that never should have happened is in the books and the result proved that personal arrogance masquerading as public policy is a poison unless you live in a totalitarian dictatorship. Michael Ignatieff pursued a no-confidence in the hope of achieving his desire to become prime minister of Canada. His roll of the dice has cost the long esteemed LIBERAL PARTY its position in parliament and brought to the fore a more left-oriented NDP.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Budget Battle 2012/Presidential Election Year

April 13, 2011

Today’s headline in the Financial Times, “U.S. LACKS CREDIBILITY ON DEBT-SAY IMF.” I rarely agree with the IMF but on this issue as the readers of NOTES are aware, I can find common ground with the economists at the world’s commentator on global economics. It is easy to say the U.S. lacks credibility when the world is observing the budgetary circus that has visited Washington, D.C. for the past two weeks. The CREDIBILITY issue is not solely with the president and the legislature but also with the FEDERAL RESERVE. If the FED errs in its aggressive monetary easing it will be a horrendous blow to the U.S. and the global financial system. The FED has so much at stake because it has more than $2 trillion of DEBT INSTRUMENTS on its balance sheet and if the U.S. is deemed to be an unworthy borrower just what will the value of those assets be on the market.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Is April EMPLOYMENT GOING TO BE A LION OR A LAMB?

March 31, 2011

The U.S. unemployment report will be issued on Friday  at the regular time: 7:30 CST. It seems that the consensus is for 210,000 nonfarm payroll, a rate of 8.9 percent and an increase in hourly wages of 0.2 percent. It seems that a 300,000-plus number is in the cards which is why the FED Presidents that are not of the perma-dove camp are ramping up the anti-inflationary rhetoric. Today, Minneapolis FED President KOCHERLAKOTA caused a late move in the DOLLAR, METALS and SHORT-DATED interest rates as he raised the possibility of the FED raising rates by 75 BASIS POINTS. The DOLLAR had been lower all day as month- and quarter-end positioning allowed the power trend funds to push their profitable positions in the desired direction, but KOCHERLAKOTA did cause a late reversal with his aggressive comments.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: China Imports Coal so it Can Stuff it in the World’s Stockings

December 26, 2010

Again, the world is given a Christmas “surprise.” Last year, the U.S. Treasury was nationalized Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae on Christmas Eve when no newsrooms were stirring with even a click of the mouse. This year, the Chinese Central Bank took center stage and announced a rate increase of 25 basis points. Now, I am convinced that this rate increase is NEGLIGIBLE to say the least. The world financial news is going to make this rate increase into an effort by the Chinese authorities to combat inflation but that is pure NONSENSE. The benchmark lending rate was raised 25 basis points to 5.81 percent and the benchmark deposit rate increased to 2.75 percent from 2.75 percent. The economic impact won’t even register.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Wikileaks confirms it–the Walrus was Paul; and Chinese data is suspect

December 7, 2010

Last night, the RBA voted to hold Australian rates steady at 4.75 percent. Governor Stevens showed us his usual, steady hand in the BANK‘s statement as he provided us with a global view that weighed heavily on Aussie monetary policy. The strength of the Aussie dollar kept the RBA from raising rates as the bank had unexpectedly raised rates in November and was content to see if the U.S. and European economies can overcome their current malaise. The Chinese and Indian demand were responsible for the best terms of trade for OZ since the 1950s and growth in other Asian nations was brightening the jobs and capex picture even more. In a few paragraphs, Governor Stevens and his comrades are very clear that Australia is the epicenter of the Asian growth story and the RBA will be watching for indicators that Australian employment is getting too tight for the BANK to move rates higher.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: A quick note from NOTES

July 28, 2010

An issue we continue to raise with our readers is how dynamic markets are in the processing of information. When people are technically oriented, it is the numbers–be it trend lines, moving averages, fibbonacci or whatever. The bottom line is that the number is the number and that is it, though not science, but certainly the art of probability. As fundamental traders first we are always aware of changes in the markets psyche. We utilize technicals to limit our loses or provide price areas where we can get more aggressive in moving into a trade. Last night we received a fundamental piece of data from Australia: the CPI number. The market had been anticipating a reading of .8 percent and the actual release showed consumer prices up only .5 percent.

(more…)