Posts Tagged ‘Iran’

Notes From Underground: Areas of Global Macro Concern

July 24, 2018

President Donald Trump’s continuous tweeting creates volatility in the markets but the impact lessens as participants become hardened to the vagaries of the tweets. An area that does concern me, though, is the amount of insider trading I suspect is taking place.

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Notes From Underground: Come On Wall Street Don’t Be Slow, This Is War a Go-Go-Go

May 8, 2018

*NOTE: THERE IS NO POLITICAL VIEW IN THIS BLOG (AND SPECIFICALLY IN THIS POST) I ascribe to the wisdom of Deng Xiaoping. To paraphrase: Quality analysis doesn’t care if the “cat is black or white,” only if it catches mice.

Come on Wall Street, don’t be slow
Why man, this is war a-go-go
There’s plenty good money to be made
By supplying the army with the tools of its trade
But just hope and pray that if they drop the bomb
[Fill in the target of choice] 
                      — Country Joe, “I Feel Like I’M Fixin’ to Die Rag”

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Notes From Underground: Four Central Bank Meetings, and, Oh Yeah, the Fiscal Cliff

December 2, 2012

The weekend news was rather sparse as the Greeks got their trust fund check from the overlords in Brussels. The Greeks need to be leery of Eurocrats bearing gifts. The Sunday news shows in the U.S. highlighted the vast chasm between Speaker Boehner and Secretary Geithner. There was finger-pointing all around about as to which group was holding up the negotiations as to affect genuine compromise and a resolution to the fiscal cliff. As the rhetoric heats up, the S&Ps and global stock indices all closed higher on the week, showing that the price action speaks louder than words. The market has fears that failure to resolve the fiscal crisis will result in a new U.S. recession and will also undermine the global economic recovery, but yet the COPPER closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time in many weeks. Other industrial metals also performed well last week making me wonder if all the fiscal cliff rhetoric is missing some larger picture. We will watch to see if the COPPER can sustain its recent strength or whether we are in the midst of a short covering rally.

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Notes From Underground: OIL–A CONJECTURE

March 21, 2012

Before I take a few days hiatus (well deserved) and with the world in a more “serene” state, it is a good time to contemplate the recent news out of the GULF REGION. In a story in yesterday’s Financial Times, “Saudis battle to calm oil fears,” it seems that the Saudis have consigned 11 VLCCS to send a total of TWENTY-TWO MILLION BARRELS of crude to the U.S. This is an interesting development as high U.S. gas prices are seen to be an issue in the upcoming presidential election.

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Notes From Underground: When I have Something to Say Sir I Am Going to Say It Now! (Phil Ochs)

November 8, 2011

Yes, all the news about Prime Minister Berlusconi is pure puff and nonsense. The Italian economic situation will not change one iota when Silvio steps aside and, in fact, I would argue that the situation will become more volatile. Italy has seen so many governments come and go since the end of WORLD WAR II that it must be the role model for Japan. Mr. Berlusconi may be a scoundrel but the markets and the Italians know what they have and it seems that Berlusconi the known is better than what may come next. If the present government falls there is a possibility that a more leftist coalition will be formed and it is doubtful if it would be prone to pass an AUSTERITY plan.

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Notes From Underground: A Market Pregnant With Fear Suffers A Contraction From A Confusing Headline

October 25, 2011

The global markets are on tenterhooks waiting for the European leaders to come to some definitive plan of action to secure the European banking sector and provide relief to the problem of sovereign solvency issue of the so-called PIIGS. This problem has plagued the financial landscape since January 2010, when the Chinese SWF failed to buy a Greek 25 billion euro bond offering. When China didn’t fund Greece, the spotlight was directed to the European debt markets and the result has been a steady decay in the value of the sovereign debt of the European peripheries. After previous crisis meetings to stem the debt crisis, the time has come for the EUROCRATS and their political leaders to provide a program that has some genuine credibility.

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Notes From Underground: Trichet, the Lame Duck, Provides Lame Rhetoric to Duck the Serious Issues

June 9, 2011

It is time for the ECB president to leave the scene as he is losing the credibility that he has labored so hard to construct. Mr. Trichet delivered the widely expected phrase “STRONG VIGILANCE” in his post-ECB monetary policy press conference. The EURO made its high for the day on the utterance of the words “STRONG VIGILANCE” but sold off quickly as Trichet emphasized that the ECB does not signal a guarantee on future interest rates. The guardian of EURO monetary policy desired to keep the markets off-balance.

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Notes From Underground: Irish Elections, Bahrain and the U.S. DOLLAR fails to RALLY

February 24, 2011

All eyes have been focused on the MIDDLE EAST for its huge impact on OIL prices. There is a debate between those who believe that the OIL supply disruption is inflationary as energy prices create a rising price environment and those who believe that high energy prices are a tremendous drag on economic growth. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND is in the camp that OIL supply disruptions are a drag on growth, especially in an environment of high unemployment and a severely stretched consumer. It is this fear that has roiled the stock market in the U.S. and put stress upon the global financial system. Emerging markets that are already feeling the impact of higher food costs will now have to deal with higher energy prices, which many governments already subsidize for its citizens. Will the situation in Bahrain be as economic disastrous as some analysts and pundits are claiming?

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Notes From Underground: in a follow up to this morning’s piece …

May 26, 2010

Today’s Financial Times reported that Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, issued warnings regarding China’s new assertiveness in the Asian region. In reference to China’s recent noise about claims to territorial rights in the Asian region, the Admiral said it was “generating increasing concern broadly across the region and require address.” 

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