Posts Tagged ‘Ireland’

Notes From Underground: Strategic and Economic Dialogue … Enough SED

May 10, 2011

Chinese and U.S. officials have been meeting in Washington for the past two days under the aegis of the annual forum of Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SED). All the news releases from these meetings sound so hopeful about increased cooperation between the world powers. The Chinese feed the U.S. policy makers with words of promise about the SINO economy becoming more market-oriented and the American delegation tells the Chinese that they will be fiscally responsible and do all they gain to maintain the value of U.S. paper assets that fill the vaults in Beijing. An hour after the Chinese head home, the financial media will no doubt be hungry for some more morsels of hope. So it goes and it will continue: Both sides pledging fidelity the vibrancy of the global economic order.

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Notes From Underground: King Checks, Trichet raises but signals he is not necessarily a serial raiser

April 7, 2011

As expected, the Bank of England held rates at 50 basis points and the ECB moved to raise rates to 1.25 percent. BOE Governor KING does not hold news conferences post-announcement so we will have to wait to find out if the MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE (MPC) voted 5-3-1 again. Also, with inflation in the U.K. above the targeted level, Mr.King will be writing another to the ECHEQUER to explain why the BOE kept rates at the present level and held back from raising as prescribed by its mandate.

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Notes From Underground: MAN PLANS AND GOD LAUGHS

March 13, 2011

The people of Japan are under severe stress and deep anguish because of the cleanup from Friday’s devastating earthquake and tsunami. The readers of NOTES are well aware that my son, Tobias Harris, is a recognized analyst on Japanese politics and has been the recipient of Japanese hospitality on numerous trips and long periods of work. Our hearts go out to the Japanese people as they begin to come to terms with the massive amount of destruction and loss of life. As traders, we tend to focus on the financial ramifications of major disasters but the depth of despair and suffering for those caught in its wake is real and we should all offer our prayers and aid to the people of Japan. With that said, we know that as the human suffering is tabulated the world goes on and markets will be trying to come to terms with global financial impact.

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Notes From Underground: The Irish Government loses power as the GREENS pull the plug

January 23, 2011

The weekend brought some political news from the EU. Brian Cowen gave up his leadership of the Fianna Fail Party but vowed to stay on as prime minister. However, the GREEN PARTY, who is the junior partner in the coalition, balked at the uncertainty caused by PM Cowen and pulled their support, which would force the dissolution of Parliament after this week’s vote on important budgetary matters. It is not as significant as it could be for elections were scheduled for March and the ruling party has been expected to suffer a total defeat. The most important outcome is that some of the leadership challenging Cowen within Fianna Fail will lose some precious time to secure their support within the party.

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Notes From Underground: The Irish have another package worth 85 billion euros (and the NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP CONTINUES)

November 28, 2010

Another weekend and another emergency meeting in Europe as the EU attempts to stem potential DEFAULT in the PIIGS. The language that emanates from these meetings is difficult to analyze because it is so convoluted. The eurocrats make decisions and then the markets attack the intended recipients and drive the yields on sovereign BONDS higher, which prompts another meeting. This has been going on for a year as the markets have gained the ascendency over the politics. Frau Merkel has repeatedly said that politics must gain the upper hand but for now that is only rhetoric.

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Happy Thanksgiving FROM NOTES : WE ARE GRATEFUL FOR OUR READERS AND THEIR THOUGHTS

November 23, 2010

The markets were riddled with all sorts of political news today as North Korea felt neglected and found a way to move center stage. The North Koreans like to have the spotlight shine on them when they need something from the world. I figure they must need food and heating oil for the winter so they upped the tension on the PENINSULA by lobbing some artillery shells into a South Korean military exercise. It is sad that SOUTH KOREANS had to die while Pyonyang played their typical games. A boycott of the North cannot work as the corrupt dictatorship just raises the temperature on hostilities until the world provides them with what they want and need.┬áIt is time to start bringing the U.S. troops home. Let the Chinese and Koreas resolve the problems that result from the arrested development of the North Koreans. Let the South Koreans be under the U.S. NUCLEAR UMBRELLA and start cutting back on U.S. global overreach. Oh by the way, don’t forget the bread and the heating oil so the North can get on with its goal of sucking the life out of its “citizens.”

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Notes From Underground: All is well in Ireland as the debt crisis has been resolved–and no corporate tax increase

November 21, 2010

It has been a very slow news weekend. There were no major events, and, if you can believe it, the EU and IMF have agreed to a support package for the Irish banks and other institutions that are under stress. Nobody can really be shocked by this as the readers of NOTES have been prepped as to this outcome. The Irish polity at this point did not have to surrender its sovereignty as it doesn’t have to raise its corporate tax, at least not yet. Markets are responding positively as the S&Ps, EURO and COMMODITIES are all higher as the all-clear signal is given.

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Notes From Underground: The European “CRISIS,” a study in political economy

November 17, 2010

As readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND are well aware, this blog takes over from where the econometricians and model builders fear to tread. Case in point: The current Irish DEBT problem. All of the number crunchers are straining over whether the Irish Banks or the government is the biggest problem and if it’s a solvency or liquidity issue. Neither!

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Notes From Underground: Wen to meet Obama Thursday; Zapatero gives the European debt crisis the boot

September 22, 2010

As the United Nations convenes for its fall meetings, world leaders gather in New York, which creates the opportunity for traffic jams and face-to-face bilateral meetings for heads of state. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will take the time to discuss serious issues with President Obama–and, of course the trade issue will take center stage. Premier Wen will make his case that the Chinese trade surplus is not a question of currency value but rather economic structure. Wen will argue that the huge trade surplus will correct as the structure of China’s economy becomes more domestic demand driven. The Chinese believe that capitalist history is replete with trade surpluses as a part of any capitalist society’s development. The U.S. and Great Britain both ran massive surpluses as their economies transitioned from agrarian-based to industrialized nations.

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Notes From Underground: Geithner and Schumer put more dung on the fire to heat up the Chinese currency battle

September 19, 2010

The news over the weekend was was not market moving. The Center Right coalition in Sweden looks to win re-election, which is a very rare occurrence in the model welfare state of Europe. The Swedes have weathered the recent financial crisis fairly well, since they learned their lesson from the financial pains they endured in the early-to-mid 1990s. In fact, the Swedish crisis has provided some of the best solutions for policy markers in the U.S. and Europe as they seek ways to ameliorate the credit stresses that have been plaguing the developed economies for two-plus years. The biggest problem for the Swedes is the anti-immigration party of Democratic Sweden polled stronger than anticipated, which means they will have seats in Parliament for the first time. The move to the right is something to watch for in the EU as the fiscal austerity programs begin to take hold. If the right can rise in the Swedish Utopia, governments in the rest of Europe have to take note.

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